学会等待便会成功

I am really glad I set a stop loss yesterday, otherwise I would have been wiped out this morning. Actually, I didn't have much confidence, but by some twist of fate, I bottom-fished. Shortly after opening the position, I felt a bit lost. I treated this confusion as the fear of falling, so I didn't check the software much. When I woke up this morning and checked, I was really glad I set a stop loss. So for everyone trading, you must set a stop loss; this is your bottom line for survival. If you don't set a stop loss, then you really have nothing left.

Currently, according to public information, I found that Yi Li Hua's cost is around 1800. Every round of a bear market tends to sacrifice a few institutions. The last bear market took down Three Arrows Capital, which managed assets of over 18 billion USD. Do you think this round will be manageable for Ah Hua?

Currently, the monthly chart for Bitcoin and Ethereum is still in a dead cross. The downward trend of the larger cycle is difficult to reverse in the short term. This wave may drop to 60000 at this level, and then continue to oscillate at the bottom to wear down the patience of those who are about to be liquidated. We can only see if Old Deng will stir things up again when the presidential election campaign starts again later this year.

It actually happened that there was a price crash, and I admit my mistake and exit. If Yi Li Hua doesn't add margin at 2500, he will be liquidated. A few days ago, he just sold a position worth a hundred million and added margin for repayment. Most of his current positions are financed through loans, and the funds for his fund do not come from personal sources, but from investors. Investors cannot keep letting him hold on indefinitely, so this time Ah Hua might have to cut losses. This information about selling for repayment can be verified.

Just logged in and saw the callback directly, the parliament has reached most of the agreements. If metals continue to drop next Monday, the US stock market will also continue to drop in the evening. The rise in the US stock market is just Trump's self-righteous achievement. For the sake of his own accomplishments, he definitely won't let the US stock market continue to drop. The probability of the government opening next Monday is quite high. Once it opens, funds will be injected into the market. Even if there's a small probability that it won't open, it won't be a big problem, after all, it has already dropped so much before.

#BTC走势分析 Bitcoin's one-hour chart has started a golden cross with two scenarios

The first scenario is a direct rebound to close to the 84 position

The other scenario is to probe down again and have a false breakdown below the 81 position, quickly recovering back above 81, then one can enter to long up to the 84 position. Aggressive traders can trade on the left side, buying a little in advance; if it breaks below 81 and does not recover in time, then just cut losses. If you are more conservative, you can wait until it breaks below 81 and recovers before entering, which is also not too late. If it does not recover, then one can directly short.

Finally, I remind all brothers that in a bear market, everything is in decline. Except for some meme coins, even coins with strong fundamentals cannot escape the fate of decline. Can any coin outperform Bitcoin? Bitcoin also has its decline cycles, so be cautious when going long in a bear market.

The overall situation has now entered the oversold area. Brothers without positions don't need to rush to open positions; you can wait until tomorrow between 10 AM and 1 PM. During this time, there will be a final result regarding whether the U.S. government will continue to shut down. Based on the current situation, if they continue to shut down, it will definitely be a significant negative factor. Last night, there was a sharp decline; the market is very short on liquidity. If they reach an agreement and the government reopens, it will be a huge positive. During the last government shutdown, decentralized Bitcoin and privacy coins all strengthened. Will this happen again? It's hard to say; the market has just gone through a big correction, which is completely different from the previous environment.

For the more aggressive brothers, of course, you can continue to open positions. I am conservative; I believe that only surviving gives you the qualification to participate in the subsequent market trends.

已经进入超卖区域，而且底部也在不断的抬高落袋为安先吧，今天跌的已经够多了，就算后面再跌也要反抽一波先，任何较大的反弹都是最佳的入场点

If it breaks below the 547 position, then it's hard to say where the bottom will be. This is a relatively important support level. At this point, if I were a bearish main force, I would definitely force the bulls to close their positions, after all, the current trend is bearish, because the entry point for the bulls is too high.

Let's see if we can have a prosperous year

Predicted that there will be speculation on the contract or spot at the meeting, do you all think there will be a wave of speculation? After all, next year is the Year of the Horse.

Tomorrow evening at 11 o'clock, the announcement regarding the trial about Trump's trade war will be made. If Trump wins, does that mean that the blonde guy can directly start a trade war whenever he dislikes someone? If the trial result is that Trump loses, it means that the expenses incurred from the trade war will need to be refunded. According to incomplete statistics, the fees collected from the trade war are estimated to be around 150 billion to 200 billion USD. To suddenly refund such a large amount, does that indirectly release liquidity? Even if Trump loses, he will definitely use his privilege to amend the constitution or argue from some perspective that the trade war is justified.

I will definitely close my positions in advance and not gamble, after all, the blonde guy is the rule maker, and he might already have countermeasures in place.

There are quite a few major events this month. On January 20th, the ruling on whether Huang Mao's tariff war is correct will be announced. If he loses, he will have to return the money earned from the tariffs; if he wins, it's hard to say. In fact, this ruling should have been made long ago; I don’t know the reason for the delay.

On January 23rd, Japan's Takashi Sawa will hold a meeting. The interest rate may remain unchanged, but the likelihood of dissolving the parliament is quite high. The content of the meeting will focus on whether to maintain the exchange rate or boost exports. If she wants to achieve political results, she might choose to boost exports, as the island of small daily life is just that big.

At the end of this month, there will be a Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. It is basically a done deal that there will be no rate cut; the biggest variable is whether the U.S. government will reopen on January 30th. In fact, the discussions have progressed quite well, and many budget-related funds have already been agreed upon, but the major portions have not yet been settled.

Many issues remain unresolved, and now there is also an acquisition battle in England. Huang Mao has clearly stated that if Europe opposes them, they will impose tariffs in response. Europe has also made it clear that if you mess with me, I will mess with you and impose tariffs too.

My view is that if the market situation is unclear, it's better not to act than to make a mistake. Don't run out of bullets at a critical moment.

Unity of Knowledge and Action

It seems that this rebound is not a sign of a bull market, but rather the last opportunity to escape. As long as someone takes the lead to run, the people behind will definitely follow. The market's liquidity is limited; as long as someone distributes chips, it will cause the price to drop. Once the price drops, it will trigger others to flee.

#BCH This fluctuation is almost becoming a stablecoin.

The Year of the Horse is getting closer, and personally, I think that 'I've arrived riding a horse' might go on spot and contracts, at least it will go on spot, because next year is the Year of the Horse. If you add in He Yi and other celebrities making announcements, there will indeed be a wave, especially since He Yi posted something about 2026. The probability of some speculation happening is quite high, and Binance's fund has also bought into 'I've arrived riding a horse', having purchased 100,000 U. Those brothers with the capability can verify this. Binance's book also bought 100,000 U, and later they went on spot and contracts as well. Brothers who want to take a gamble can buy a little.

I am just expressing my personal opinion and not making any calls.

This surge is due to the listing of the financial product #WLFI on Binance, which ended on January 24th. Once the financial product ended, the hype disappeared, and it went back to where it came from

Now, the probability of a rate cut in January is less than 2%. The reason the market has been rising consistently is because the 'yellow-haired' individual leans toward rate cuts. The market is currently reflecting his stance. A rate cut has already been priced in. If Federal Reserve officials keep stating they don't support a cut or can't find a reason, a correction might be imminent. Until then, a continued rebound is expected.

As expected, just as I guessed

Had a wave, one word: refreshing