The New Year is approaching. If you go home for the New Year and your family asks how your cryptocurrency trading is this year, you must not flip the table. Just say it's going well, going well. No matter what, you must pretend to be happy. After all, you'll only be home for a few days, so learn to smile.
$BTC has not been able to stabilize above the EMA 20-day line of $88000, and the market is in a weak fluctuation phase, with no clear bullish or bearish direction. Overall, the bears still hold the advantage. It is really difficult to expect a rebound from this oversold condition. Currently, it is only recommended to stay in cash or hold a very small position and observe. Pay attention to the fluctuation range of $84000-$91000; only leaving this range can lead to a new trend.
$BTC Family, I'm still here. The fluctuations in the past couple of days have been less than 1%, it's quite something. Tomorrow the fluctuations will come out, just hang in there a bit longer. It's not a big issue. What I'm thinking about now is if it drops back to around 86000, will it rebound? Or will it continue to fall? The take-profit price I have set is around 86500. If it can rebound a bit more, that would be great, then I can continue to short. Let's wait.
Update on the current status of the two major long positions
1ïžâŁ1011 After the flash crash, the insider who opened a short position has a floating loss of 22.43 million USD within 24 hours. After some rebound, the current floating loss of the long position valued at 670 million USD has narrowed to 12.97 million USD, with the floating loss of $ETH accounting for over 80%, given that the single asset position is nearly 550 million, and the margin is as high as 129 million USD, making the liquidation possibility extremely low.
2ïžâŁBuddy, floating loss of 1.002 million USD within 24 hours. After a liquidation loss of 720,000 USD at dawn, he recharged 200,000 USD as margin, currently holding 3,875 $ETH (about 1.206 million USD), with a floating loss of 300,000 USD, liquidation price at $3,053.73, with a remaining space of 58.97 USD to the marked price.
â ïž Wait 15 minutes on the right side (If it hits, go for it; if it breaks down, then look at 87692 and go long again.)
â I missed a significant move on today's short position, the decline was very smooth. It would be best if it pulls up directly from here; If it continues to dive to 87692 or retraces to the previous low and then rebounds, that also belongs to a natural structure. This long position needs to be able to withstand losses, the real revenge point is still near 87692 (stronger structure).
đŻ Take Profit Previous High: 92520 (exit completely)
đ No rush, follow the structure. Act when you see the position.
If the market presents an opportunity, I will take profits on short positions around 86500 and then open long positions.
In the previous analysis, it was mentioned that BTC might test 94000 or might not test 94000, but their movements are essentially the same, seeking support at the bottom of the same pullback channel.
$BTC shows a demand for a significant upward breakout on a larger scale and macro level (combined with expectations of interest rate cuts leading to a false breakout), while on a smaller scale, there is also a demand for a downward pullback (a buildup behavior at the bottom of the pullback channel).
Therefore, for the positions, I will hold until the support at around 86500 for profit taking, and after taking profits, I will open long positions with a stop loss of 2000 points.
This aims to profit in the large range of 86000- (97000-100000).
I enjoy predicting market movements, but my so-called predictions are not about drawing an ideal trend that the market must follow; rather, they provide traders with an ideal understanding of my trading plan.
Now, making another judgment, after receiving long positions, I will hold until BTC breaks through the wide channel resistance around 97000-100000 (partially closing positions at resistance), and open short positions below 100000, aiming for 83000.
As soon as I saw my dad, he passed away. These past two days
æšæš_Mu
·
--
Bearish
$BTC Operation Plan Follow-up â Looking for Short Opportunities, Target between 83000-84000
All long positions have been closed for profit, and there was no opportunity to reach 93000 last night, so no longer holding here. At this position, there are two types of anxious people.
The first type are those who are shorting based on 88000-90000, and so far, they have not been given any chance to exit, and there is even oscillation forming above (these traders are the most anxious).
The second type are those who opened long positions on the breakthrough of 90000. After they opened their longs, BTC has not risen for a long time and frequently returns to their cost price, which gives rise to two types of operational approaches.
1) Still hanging short orders at 93000. It can be seen that in the short term, BTC has formed an oscillation range of 1000+ points above 90000, and those who opened shorts within a week without stopping loss have their liquidation positions distributed between 92000-93000 based on the liquidation map. Therefore, still placing a left-side order at 93000. If the price breaks upward and quickly retreats, short sellers stop loss, and long positions return to cost price, forcing them to sell will lead to a further price drop and thus a reversal.
2) BTC no longer has the strength to clear out shorts; the trend has currently reversed. So, we need to wait for a signal to enter right-side orders, which means when BTC falls back to test the upper edge of the upward wide channel, it is the timing for shorting.
Not considering long positions, the bulls will all die.
Are there any big shots in the cryptocurrency circle who can share?
My advice is for ordinary people to work steadily and not to invest. 90% of people in the cryptocurrency circle only experience major declines, not major rises. Most of those who promote making money online are fraudsters. Their purpose is very clear: to trick you into entering the circle, and they make referral fees. As for the methods, there are many kinds, but I won't go into details here. So what you can see in the cryptocurrency circle is that everyone is promoting overnight wealth, changing social class, financial freedom... Actually, it's all fake. Making money in the cryptocurrency circle is harder than eating shit; if one still has the ability to survive, I personally do not recommend entering the cryptocurrency circle. Short-term impacts money, long-term impacts values.
$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) The daily closing line of Bitcoin has been completed. First, has the left side's big bearish candle pressure broken through? 123300 has not been broken. Second, three consecutive bullish candles, the length of the K-line body is getting shorter. The most recent closed candle has longer upper and lower shadows, indicating that many people are selling here. Third, looking at the trading volume, the trading volume of the most recent closed candle is the largest, but the price increase is the smallest, suggesting a potential increase in volume but stagnation in price, which is a significant consumption for the bulls. The 4-hour K-line shows a massive volume stagnation at 0 o'clock, indicating a peak signal. For a pullback, look for 120300, and it will rebound towards 122600. If 122600 holds, you can go long briefly, but it's up to you whether to take that opportunity. After forming at this top on the 4-hour chart, it will drop to 117000 or 114000, and after gaining support, it will make another push towards 123000, and that should basically conclude it. The next wave is heading towards 80,000. Today is the weekend, with little volatility; if you want to trade, just follow my thinking.