Any IP is a high-risk asset. Currently, BTC is in line with the trend of the times. Compared with ancient gold, BTC is more favored by the younger generation. Winning young people means winning the future. When the millennial generation gradually takes the center stage of the times, BTC will also usher in its moment of glory.
This is the analysis price given by Tom Lee's analysts to internal clients when the December market is at its peak, and a further drop of 10 - 20% would reach. $BTC $ETH $SOL
ETH has repeatedly tested the psychological and technical threshold of $2200 as a strong resistance/support in the past 5 years:
- Multiple rebounds after surging to $2200 in the early/mid 2021 bull market - Repeated fluctuations at high levels and the early of the bear market from 2021 to 2022 - Multiple touches during the bear market bottom rebound phase from 2023 to 2024 - Once again returning in 2025 and now in early 2026
A total of 11 times (including this time in February 2026), it has indeed formed a strong "scale memory." Market participants (especially medium to long-term holders and quant/institutional investors) have regarded $2200 as an important anchor price.
Will this time be different?
In the short term (over the next few weeks to months), it is likely to be "the same," meaning: $2200 currently resembles a strong resistance for a short-term rebound (rather than a bottom) - The current price has fallen below $2200 and is fluctuating below, with market sentiment leaning bearish (RSI is oversold but there are no clear reversal signals, a large number of futures liquidations, overall crypto risk appetite is declining) - Many analyses mention that if the 2100-2150 range cannot be held, the next clear support is $2000, or even $1900-1800
Therefore, the next likely scenario is to continue to test the bottom or explore lower prices, rather than a direct V-shaped reversal stabilizing above $2200.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, it may be "finally different"
There are several reasons that differ from previous cycles:
1. Institutional & ETF factors: By 2024-2025, ETH spot ETFs have already been launched and have seen a certain scale of inflow, which was not the case in 2021. Institutions' memory of $2200 may not be as "deeply etched" as retail investors'; they place more importance on staking yields, L2 ecosystems, RWA, and other fundamentals. 2. Macroeconomic environment: The $2200 in 2021/2022 was largely driven down by the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and liquidity tightening; the macro context of 2026 (inflation, interest rate path, and U.S. stock performance) is very different from those years. 3. On-chain maturity: Staking volume, L2 TVL, and developer activity are far higher than in 2021-2023, the "productivity" of ETH is improving, and the long-term valuation center is likely to move upward. 4. The historical high has reached $4955 (in 2025), indicating that the market has seen higher prices, and the psychological ceiling is higher than before. $ETH
• FOGO • ZAMA • SKR • PENGUIN • ELSA • ACUTE CARE UNIT • BREV
January feels like a classic reset of the situation after experiencing a weak fourth quarter.
Geopolitical events and macro factors have led to uncertainty reaching its peak.
Market trends are not a straight line but rather capital flowing between different narrative frameworks.
Privacy protection has led this trend shift, followed by prediction markets.
Large platforms like Ethereum and Coinbase transitioning to quantum resistance highlight the most urgent current demand.
A significant change is the waning momentum of SocialFi, mainly due to the new X policy changes.
People's attention has shifted from hype-driven interactions to narratives that are clearer and more aligned with actual use cases.
On the macro front, interest rate cuts have not been placed on the agenda, leading to more rational market expectations.
The expectation of insufficient liquidity always worries investors, and this concern arose again when Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell to levels seen in April 2025.
The outlook for February is optimistic, with major changes expected in the Fed and monetary policy.
What impressed you the most in the cryptocurrency space in January?
Combining the trends of the AI computing explosion in the DePIN industry in 2026, the solid demand for storage, the scaling of DeWi, and the accelerated implementation of energy and the Internet of Things, we provide core bets and reasons layered by market capitalization, balancing certainty and flexibility.
1. Core Bets (Layered by Market Capitalization)
• Large Caps: RENDER, FIL, AR
RENDER: The AI content generation drives an explosion in rendering demand, with task volume increasing by 470% year-on-year in Q3 2025, and users exceeding 170,000; after migrating to Solana, transaction costs decreased by 99%, making it a certainty leader in the AI + DePIN computing track.
FIL: Decentralized storage shifts from "supplement" to "substitution," with enterprise migration costs reduced by 70%, and landing deals with large B clients such as short video platforms; in 2026, it will continue to benefit from the solid demand for data storage and the wave of Web2 migration.
AR: The "block weaving" achieves permanent storage, with the 2025 version of the protocol reducing costs by 40%, archiving over 14.27 billion pieces of data, making it a scarce asset in the Web3 "permanent memory layer."
• Mid Caps: HNT, AKT
HNT (Helium): A benchmark in the DeWi track, with hotspots exceeding one million, expanding into multi-protocol 5G/Wi-Fi; in 2026, it will be a core beneficiary of the decentralization scaling of wireless networks.
AKT: Decentralized computing middleware that adapts to multi-chain and enterprise-level needs, highlighting its value in the AI computing scheduling and DePIN middleware improvement.
• Low Caps: FLUX, PEAQ
FLUX: Decentralized cloud services that can compete with AWS and others, with the developer ecosystem expansion and cost advantages in 2026 driving accelerated growth.
PEAQ: Internet of Things DePIN, focusing on machine economy and trusted hardware, adaptable to landing scenarios such as supply chains and smart cities, with significant flexibility.
2. Overview of Betting Logic
• Prioritize AI computing (RENDER) and storage (FIL, AR), which is the largest incremental track in DePIN for 2026.
• In mid-cap, look at DeWi (HNT) and computing middleware (AKT), the core infrastructure for industry scaling.
• In small-cap, layout decentralized cloud (FLUX) and Internet of Things (PEAQ), capturing the flexibility of explosive sub-scenario occurrences.
3. Risk Warning
• Changes in regulatory policies, sustainability of token economic models, hardware deployment and operation costs exceeding expectations, and intensified competition from centralized service providers.
This is not "Artificial Intelligence + Cryptocurrency Speculation". This is infrastructure.
Before ERC-8004:
Artificial Intelligence Agents
• No identity • No reputation • Unable to trust each other • Living in silos
ERC-8004 fixed a problem: Trust between machines.
It enables artificial intelligence agents to have the following capabilities: • On-chain identity • Transferable reputation • Verifiable proof of work No platforms. No gatekeepers.
You can understand it this way: Passport Resume Audit trail Applicable to artificial intelligence agents.
Now, agents can:
• Know each other • Get hired • Get paid • Accept audits All executed on-chain.
Ethereum becomes: Not just a channel for funds. But the settlement layer for the economy of artificial intelligence and artificial intelligence.
This will not explode overnight. But new systems start this way. Quiet. Boring. Foundational. $ETH
The 8 core use cases of ClawdBot on Web3 (with examples)
1. On-chain intelligence Agent: Monitors 24 hours a day but is not emotional Scenario description The biggest problem in Web3 is not the lack of information, but: Too much information Emotional interference is too strong Humans cannot keep up ClawdBot is very suitable as an on-chain intelligence officer. Example 1: On-chain fund flow monitoring You can configure it like this: Agent responsibilities You are my on-chain intelligence analyst Responsible for monitoring: Whale address Newly deployed contracts Large transfers Abnormal Gas behavior What will it do Automatically grab on-chain data Mark abnormal behavior Generate 'summaries that humans can understand' Only remind you when conditions are met 👉 What you see is not 'data', but the conclusions after judgment.
• $SUI : (1.46% of MC | 55.42 million tokens) • $HYPE : (0.99% of MC | 2.36 million tokens) • $TRUMP : (3.16% of MC | 6.33 million tokens) • $EIGEN : (12.41% of MC | 67.67 million tokens) • $WLD : (1.44% of MC | 39.63 million tokens) • $IP : (2.03% of MC | 7.11 million tokens) • $OP : (2.18% of MC | 42.34 million tokens) • $DOGE : (0.06% of MC | 100.8 million tokens) • $JUP : (1.83% of MC | 58.26 million tokens) • $TRX : (0.04% of MC | 35.48 million tokens)
The scale in USD is certainly important, but release pressure = percentage of market capitalization.