一舟-Flow—巨石学院

Why is it that everything except the crypto market is rising?

Recently, many people have summarized the market in one sentence:

If you don't invest in Crypto, everything else is making money.

This statement sounds harsh, but you have to admit that the sentiment is real.

This year, gold, silver, US stocks, and small-cap stocks have been taking turns rising,

only Bitcoin surged to a new high for a moment and then has been flat ever since,

It has been three months, and it can't even hold 100,000.

So people are starting to doubt:

Is it true that the crypto market really can't do it anymore?

Let’s state the conclusion first:

It's not that Bitcoin can't do it; it's that the current environment is simply not conducive for it to rise.

The assets that are rising now all have support behind them.

Gold is being bought by central banks, regardless of the price;

US stocks, AI, and small-cap stocks are being hard-pushed by national industrial policies;

Certain directions in A-shares are even more so, directly written in documents.

What about Bitcoin?

There’s no safety net, no one to support it, purely relying on the market's willingness to provide money.

When money is tight, it will definitely be the hardest hit.

Now, let’s look at a detail.

Bitcoin is not a “following asset”; it has always been the one that reacts first.

When it weakens, it’s often not its fault,

but rather that the subsequent assets will eventually need to correct as well.

Now that BTC is stagnant, it is actually a reminder:

Those that are rising outside may not be that stable.

So why is everyone buying gold now and not BTC?

To put it simply:

When something really goes wrong, people still believe in five thousand years, not fifteen years.

In terms of risk aversion, in the short term, gold is a superior substitute for Bitcoin.

It’s unrealistic to force BTC to compete with gold for position at this stage.

What’s the most common mistake now?

Seeing the crypto market struggle, cutting losses, and chasing things that have already risen significantly.

Historically, it has often been like this:

By the time you truly decide to leave BTC,

the market has often already moved to the later stages.

Bitcoin is not in a shining moment right now,

but it’s not dead either.

It’s just been put in a corner,

choosing not to cooperate when everyone’s sentiment is most consistent and optimistic.

At such times, the most important thing is not faith,

but rather not to let emotions force you into making decisions.

The market will eventually provide answers,

but if you’ve lost your position, it’s truly gone.

This time, Japan is not just a "small interlude"; something serious has happened.

With 30-year and 40-year government bonds dropping 25 basis points in a day, in Japan, this market is essentially out of control. The root cause is simple: a statement from Kato Saemae saying, "End fiscal tightening, reduce taxes and increase spending," immediately made the market realize one thing—Japanese bonds may become even less valuable.

So the result is very direct:

Long bonds are hit → Hedge funds cut losses → Life insurers are forced to take over → Liquidity begins to tighten.

This is why traders say this is the "Japanese version of the Truss moment."

It is not surprising that the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower.

The Japanese bond market is an important support point in the global interest rate system; when it shakes, U.S. bond yields are immediately driven higher, and naturally, risk assets in the Asia-Pacific region are reduced. It’s not about being bearish on Japan; it’s just that no one wants to take on risk when interest rates are unstable.

For the cryptocurrency market, the short-term outlook is not friendly.

There are three real problems in the current environment:

1. Long-term rates are rising

Bitcoin and Ethereum are most sensitive to interest rates; when rates rise, valuations are pressured.

2. Yen arbitrage funds are withdrawing

When Japan is in turmoil, low-cost funds pull back first, and risk positions are the first to be cut.

3. It’s not just a single-point issue

The U.S. has debt pressure, Japan is starting to loosen fiscal policy, and Europe is already weak.

What the market fears is "multiple issues arising for bulls simultaneously."

Cool Big Beauty Girl

1.21 Coin and Stock Double Kill
1. Yesterday, both the cryptocurrency market and the stock market crashed, with BTC dropping 4.5% and the Nasdaq opening lower and closing down 2.4%. The technology sector led the decline, with a strong risk-averse sentiment causing funds to flow into precious metals.
2. BTC had been consolidating for a month and a half, but dropped back within a week, thanks to Trump’s influence, but more so due to a weak rebound.
3. Yesterday, there was a short-term panic sell-off, and BTC's price fell back into the consolidation range; we need to see if this range can find support.

Explosion!
1. The market value of the US stock market evaporated by more than 1.3 trillion dollars in 24 hours.

2. The market value of cryptocurrencies evaporated by more than 150 billion dollars in 24 hours.

3. Gold and silver, however, reached new all-time highs.

Trump's second coin is coming soon

This crash is not just a simple matter within the cryptocurrency circle.

Bitcoin plummeted from 93,000 to 88,000, ETH fell below 3,000, U.S. stocks also plunged, while gold reached new highs—this already explains a lot:

It's not that crypto is collapsing; it's that global risk assets are being drained together.

The trigger seems absurd:

Trump's statement about "Greenland + tariff threats" sent the market into a frenzy.

But the essence is simple—tariffs are not diplomacy; they are expectations of inflation and recession.

Why is the market reacting so strongly?

Because the U.S. is already standing on the edge of a cliff:

Debt at 38 trillion, interest over 1 trillion a year

Interest rates can't be lowered further, and inflation can't be controlled

If tariffs are imposed again, it would be like fueling inflation

When the market hears "tariffs," the first reactions are only three things:

Interest rates will be higher for longer, liquidity will be tighter, and risk assets will die first.

So what you're seeing is not a "crypto crash," but rather:

U.S. stocks falling

BTC plunging even more

Gold being frantically bought

This is the reality.

So is Bitcoin really "digital gold"?

To put it bluntly:

At least not at this moment.

When something truly goes wrong:

Gold rises, BTC is slammed along with the Nasdaq

It's not a matter of belief; it's a structural issue:

BTC is still an amplifier of U.S. dollar liquidity, not a safe-haven asset.

Important Prediction: Bitcoin target 73350, extreme drop limit 62250.

Today's Hot Topics

ETF Data

Can't understand the market? Come to the live stream and let the teacher help you with your questions.

The liquidation chart is here to give direction again, over 900 million long positions, 9 billion short positions, can you guess who will be liquidated?

Not bad

Poor people rely solely on luck, while rich people believe in their brains and actions.

A certain early Bitcoin address that had been dormant for 13 years has transferred out a total of over 909 BTC

Arkham data shows that an early Bitcoin address, which had been silent for 13 years, recently awoke and transferred out a total of 909.38 BTC, equivalent to approximately $84.62 million at current prices. This address initially received this batch of coins when the price of Bitcoin was below $7, marking an increase of nearly 13,900 times.

Wide range slow consolidation market, patiently waiting for support level for short positions, rebound to resistance level for short positions.
(1) Long entry range: 90500, 89500
Stop loss position: 89000
Target range: 92000~93000
(2) Short entry range: 92500, 93300
Stop loss position: 94000
Target range: 90500~89500

ETH3070 can be bottomed out now

Recent market sentiment has clearly weakened. The funding rate for Bitcoin has turned negative, with expectations leaning towards a downward trend, creating a stark contrast with gold and silver, which continue to hit new highs.

The overall cryptocurrency market is weakening, with altcoins under the most pressure. In discussions within the group, many believe there is still room for a decline in the short term, but some traders indicate that even with expectations of a pullback, they will still attempt to go long on BTC at key levels.

From a temporal perspective, most group members judge that the Bitcoin bull market has not yet ended, with a concentrated view that it may extend until March-April. However, at this stage, funds have not significantly rotated towards altcoins, which has instead intensified sector differentiation.

Regarding the future market, divergences are widening:

One part of the opinion is extremely pessimistic, believing that the appeal of the cryptocurrency industry is declining, and project quality is concerning, even raising the idea of 'exiting crypto';

Another part is relatively restrained, believing that it is still too early to directly conclude that we are entering a structural bear market, requiring more conditions to be validated.

Some traders also provide relatively clear strategic ideas: focus on key trading points, and if the price stabilizes, the target above BTC still looks towards over 92,000 USD; while altcoins need to be wary of potential concentrated liquidation risks.

Overall, it currently resembles a phase of high-level sentiment retreat + structural rebalancing, rather than the final determination of a trend.

Great, we won't have to wait for the U.S. stock market to open anymore.
From now on, we will start 7X24h trading.

On Tuesday afternoon, spot gold broke through the previous high, standing above $4700 per ounce for the first time in history. In the first month of the new year, it has cumulatively increased by 8.8%, with a range increase of over $380.

Previously, New York futures gold had already stood above $4700 per ounce, setting a new historical record.

Meanwhile, spot silver briefly reached a historical high of $94.7295 per ounce during the session, before retreating.