The BlockchainWhale

Take a look at what’s scheduled for next week.
The U.S. Treasury is preparing to absorb a significant amount of market liquidity through a large refunding cycle totaling approximately $125 billion.
Auction Schedule:
• $58B – 3-Year Notes → Feb 10
• $42B – 10-Year Notes → Feb 11
• $25B – 30-Year Bonds → Feb 12
Settlement Date: → Feb 17
This environment is not typically supportive of calm markets.
Here’s how it works (simple explanation):
When the Treasury issues bonds, investors must pay cash.
That cash is temporarily pulled out of the financial system.
Less cash in the system = tighter liquidity.
And when liquidity tightens, risk appetite usually falls.
Why this matters:
Treasury auctions act as a real-time demand test:
✅ Strong demand → Stable yields → Markets stay steady
❌ Weak demand → Rising yields → Thinner liquidity → Risk assets often sell off
Typical reaction order:
Bond market moves first
Stocks react next
High-volatility assets (crypto, small caps, etc.) feel the biggest impact
This isn’t just about the size of the issuance — timing is crucial.
• Feb 10–12 → Auction phase
• Feb 17 → Cash settlement (liquidity drain often felt here)
Markets may look stable on charts,
but liquidity conditions can quietly tighten underneath.
This is not a prediction —
it’s a structural observation based on how liquidity cycles work.
Understanding these liquidity shifts is essential during heavy Treasury issuance periods.
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@Binance Square Official @CZ @Richard Teng 🧡🧡

Just today, the US yield curve has steepened the most in 4 years.
The gap between 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields has widened to about 0.71%, its highest level since Jan 2022.
Let me show you why this is very bearish for the markets.
When 10Y yields rise much faster than 2Y, it causes a bear steepening.
This happens when investors get concerned about inflation, fiscal policy, and even the debt.
And how does it impact the market?
When this happens, investors move away from risk-on assets.
The dollar gets stronger, less liquidity flows into stocks, and investors pivot to safe heaven assets.
The current bear steepening is due to hawkish Fed and Powell comments regarding unsustainable fiscal policy.
How does the economy respond to it?
Since 2000, every bear steepening has resulted in a market crash and recession.
Since 1970, bear steepening has predicted 7 out of 8 recessions.
And the market is already sensing that.
This is why Gold and Silver are showing quick recovery, while stocks and crypto are lagging.
What could happen next?
If the gap between 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields continues to widen, the stock market could experience a crash.
This will take down the crypto market too, as it's the most sensitive to liquidity.
And that's when the Fed will step up to do aggressive rate cuts and QE, sending assets to new highs.
@Binance Square Official 📌#BinanceSquareFamily