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2.15 Trend Analysis: Altcoins Are About to Enter Frenzy Mode

Although the current market atmosphere is heavily bearish, leading many to lack confidence in a rebound, I remain optimistic about the trend from February to March, expecting the rebound to be very strong. At that time, the BTC price is expected to reach at least above 80,000, and altcoins will follow the market's lead, ushering in a wave of crazy increases.

The reasoning behind this view mainly has two aspects:

First, the prices of the vast majority of altcoins have already fallen below the lows during the 1011 liquidation spike, and in the short term, they are in a position where they cannot fall any further.

Second, the combined market capitalization of BTC, ETH, and stablecoins has surpassed 82%. This phenomenon of excessive capital concentration is like a spring compressed to its limit, which can easily lead to a retaliatory violent rebound.

February 14 Market Analysis: Bottom Support Level Rises

On the macro level, the CPI data released yesterday showed positive performance, which boosted the market's expectations for cumulative interest rate cuts throughout the year. As a result, the cryptocurrency sector has seen a comprehensive recovery, reclaiming losses from the previous two days. It is noteworthy that, despite Coinbase's earnings report presenting bearish news, its stock price did not suffer, instead rising against the trend by 16%.

From a technical perspective, this round of correction has established a key characteristic: the position of the lows has significantly risen. We have observed that the bottom support has moved up from the previous 60000 level to around 65000. The upcoming market evolution is expected to move towards creating higher highs, with a target point likely to reach around 74000.

Overall, the trend of BTC fluctuating upwards from February to March has officially begun.

#BTC #ETH #XAU

February 14 Market Dynamics: Bottom Support Rises

Yesterday's CPI data brought good news, effectively enhancing the market's expectations for cumulative interest rate cuts throughout the year. As a result, the cryptocurrency sector experienced a broad-based rebound, recovering the losses from the previous two days.

From a technical perspective, this pullback has formed a higher low, successfully raising the bottom support from the 60,000 level to around 65,000. The subsequent trend is expected to create new highs, with a target anticipated to reach around 74,000. Currently, BTC's oscillation rebound trend from February to March has officially begun.

#BTC #ETH #XAU

February 13 Market Analysis: Rational Liquidity Cleansing

Regarding yesterday's Bitcoin price drop to the range of 63000 to 66000, this can be seen as a healthy and necessary market correction. The main purpose of this adjustment is to clean up the retail chips that entered the market on February 6, laying the foundation for a subsequent large-scale rebound through this liquidity sweep. Looking ahead to the market situation in the next two months, the rebound target is expected to reach 78000 to 85000.

In terms of relative performance, compared to the declines in the US stock market and precious metals market yesterday, the performance of BTC and ETH appears more stable and resilient. The current market focus is highly concentrated on the CPI data set to be released tonight.

February 13 Market Observation: A Necessary Liquidity Cleansing

First, let's focus on the dynamics of Bitcoin. Yesterday, the BTC price fell again, retreating to the range of 63000 to 66000. We believe this pullback is a rational market adjustment, primarily aimed at cleaning up the chips of retail investors who entered the market for bottom fishing on February 6, thereby optimizing market liquidity. This process is actually building momentum for the significant rebound that is about to come. Looking ahead to the two-month time window, we expect the rebound target to be locked in between 78000 and 85000.

In addition, when comparing to external market conditions, although the US stock market and precious metals market both experienced a downward trend yesterday, BTC and ETH performed relatively steadily during the same period, demonstrating a strong resistance to declines.

February 12 Market Interpretation: Healthy Correction Against a Bearish Background

Regarding the non-farm data released yesterday, its results exceeded market expectations, causing the originally estimated June interest rate cut to be postponed to July. Although this is objectively a bearish message for the cryptocurrency market, the downward space for BTC prices appears relatively limited. We need to understand that the impact of news often simply follows the trend, playing a role in boosting or enhancing the situation, rather than being a decisive factor.

As for the support range mentioned yesterday, between 63000 and 66000, there may be multiple downward tests of this area in future market conditions. However, this repeated fluctuation is actually a quite good buying opportunity for investors looking for short-term chances.

Due to the fierce confrontation between major CEXs, BNB, OKB, and BGB, these three major platform coins have experienced a sharp decline. However, amidst this chaos, HYPE has shown strong momentum, becoming the biggest winner to profit from it.

Regarding the market analysis on February 11, we will focus on the short-term support and resistance levels. In the medium-term perspective, the potential target range for the rebound is expected to be between 78000 and 85000. For the short-term trend, we need to consider two scenarios: if the market undergoes a secondary bottoming, the support is likely to appear in the range of 63000 to 66000; if the market skips the pullback phase and rises directly, then around 74000 will face short-term resistance testing. In addition, investors need to be aware that starting this week, news will become very active, with important events such as non-farm data, CPI, and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting coming up.

Regarding the market situation on February 11, we need to focus on the changes in short-term support and resistance levels.

In terms of the medium-term rebound expectations, the current trend targets the range of 78000 to 85000.

Specifically, regarding the assessment of short-term support and resistance, there are two possible paths in the market: if the market chooses to retest the bottom, the area from 62000 to 66000 is expected to form an effective support line; on the contrary, if the market skips the retest and directly rises, the level around 74000 will constitute a short-term resistance.

In addition, it is important to pay special attention to the fact that starting this week, the information front will enter a period of intensive releases, including important events such as non-farm payroll data, CPI index, and Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, which will be rolled out one after another, so please stay alert.

Ultimate Guide to Bottom-Hunting for Bitcoin

When the price of Bitcoin falls below the 50,000 mark, it is recommended to first liquidate stocks, funds, and various financial products in your account, converting all liquid assets into usable funds. If the market continues to decline and falls below 40,000, you should include real estate and valuable items such as cars, properties, gold, and watches in the liquidation scope. Once the price of Bitcoin further drops below 30,000, you should fully mobilize various online credit resources including 360, Douyin, Meituan, and JD Baitiao to obtain the maximum funding support. When Bitcoin finally breaks below the 20,000 mark, it signifies entering the extreme operation phase, where you should raise chips by giving up kidneys, blood, sperm, and other valuable resources.

February 9 Market Outlook: Assessment of the Ultimate Rebound and Subsequent Risks

First, let's review last week's market performance. BTC formed a significant long lower shadow with a massive trading volume. This technical pattern clearly indicates that the 60000 level has established itself as a solid phase bottom. Based on this signal, it is expected that an effective upward offensive will unfold in the market within the next 1 to 2 months, and I anticipate the target range for this rebound to be between 78000 and 85000.

However, investors need to be cautious that after this rebound ends, the market may face a comprehensive collapse crisis. At that time, the downward trend will not be limited to the cryptocurrency space; US stocks and even precious metals and other asset classes may also be involved. Considering the cyclical factors of the second half of the bear market, combined with the political uncertainties triggered by the US midterm elections and the market's own deep correction demands, the entire investment community is likely to face an extremely harsh winter period.

February 7 Market Analysis: The market welcomes a strong rebound

Looking back at yesterday's market performance, Bitcoin's trend completely aligned with our previous predictions. After experiencing a round of decline accompanied by huge trading volumes, the market quickly bottomed out and rebounded with increased volume. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency-related sectors in the US stock market also performed strongly, experiencing a widespread surge.

In terms of specific operations, we accurately identified the key bottom signal of $60000 in a timely manner yesterday morning and decisively positioned ourselves to buy BTC and US stocks at the bottom.

From the current trend, the previous one-sided decline has come to an end. In the next 1 to 2 months, the market will mainly focus on rebound recovery and oscillation consolidation. We have locked in the target range for this rebound between 78000 and 85000. It is important to remind everyone that once this range is broken upwards, it will face intense pressure from trapped positions, so we advise everyone to remain rational and not to hold overly unrealistic expectations.

Looking back, the cryptocurrency space has always been full of ever-changing reforms, with concepts like DeFi, RWA, NFT, privacy technology, and memes emerging one after another. It felt like I was back in school, striving to absorb new knowledge every day, deeply aware of the boundless sea of learning. However, turning my gaze to the present, the innovation in the cryptocurrency sector seems to have fallen into stagnation. In stark contrast, the AI field is experiencing explosive growth, bringing unprecedented new things every day. Whether it's large models, AI programming, AI agents, or AI quantification, various technological breakthroughs are happening continuously. Moreover, new tools like Claude code, open work, and openclaw have also been successively launched. Faced with such a massive flow of information, one can't help but sigh; there is simply too much to learn, it feels endless.

We have noticed that BTC is rebounding in sync with the Nasdaq index, showing a positive trend of bottoming out and recovering. For the confirmation of the subsequent trend, the ideal situation is to pay attention to tomorrow morning's closing performance: if a bullish candle with increased trading volume can be formed, solidifying the bottoming out and recovery pattern, then this will be a very positive signal. At that time, we can basically determine that the price level of 60,000 will become the phase bottom in the last two to three months.

2.6 Going Against the Trend: Staying Greedy in Panic

Regarding BTC reaching the 60,000 mark, we define it as a stage of bottoming performance. It is now the moment to enter the market and seize the rebound opportunity, expecting a 30% rebound in price over the following 2 to 3 months. It should be clear that this should be understood as a rebound trend rather than the absolute bottom of a bear market cycle.

The reason for the above judgment is mainly based on the accelerated decline experienced by the market yesterday, accompanied by massive trading volume. Although we saw a huge amount of capital fleeing due to panic, at the same time, a similarly substantial amount of capital entered to absorb the liquidity. This phenomenon is a typical signal of the market confirming a stage bottom under the cloud of panic emotions.

On February 6th, amidst widespread market panic, we must adopt a greedy contrarian mindset. For the current price level of 16,000, we define it as a phase bottom area, which is also a good opportunity to enter and seize rebound chances. Looking ahead to the next 2 to 3 months, the market is expected to welcome a rebound of approximately 30%. However, please remain clear-headed, as this is only a rebound and not the final bottom of the bear market cycle. The conclusion is drawn from the core logic that the market experienced a rapid decline with increased volume yesterday, and while there was a large-scale panic sell-off, a significant amount of capital also entered to absorb liquidity. This intense contest of funds precisely constitutes a clear signal of a phased bottom in market panic sentiment.

2.5 BTC Price Downward Path Outlook

Currently, the key support level of 74000 on the weekly chart has been lost. Although the next weekly low indicated by the technical analysis points to 49000, this level is not expected to be breached all at once. The price will first retrace to the densely distributed chip area of 57000 to 67000, and it is very likely to form a short-term bottom within this range, which will trigger a decent rebound. This process of fluctuation and rebound is expected to last for several months, but investors need to understand that the deeper logic behind such rebounds is mainly to clean up floating short positions and implement a secondary inducement to achieve a re-unification of market costs.