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The market is in an extremely sensitive phase as expectations for the first interest rate cut in December are rising. Therefore, the CPI data for November will play a guiding role in the major trends for both stocks and crypto. $BTC
The market capitalization ratio of MSCI USA to M2 money supply has soared to 270%, the highest in history and surpassing the Dot Com peak by about 40 percentage points. Compared to 2022, this ratio has increased by an additional 120 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the UK and France are only around 60% and still below pre-pandemic peaks. Japan is also around 60%, the highest level since the 1990s.
The US market has never run further from liquidity than it is now. When valuations exceed money supply, the risk of rebalancing could arise unexpectedly.
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New car sales in 2025 are expected to reach 16.2 million units, up 2.4% but still lower than the period from 2015 to 2019 and below the peak of 17.4 million vehicles in 2000.
While the population has increased by 21% since 2000, sales have decreased by 6.4%. The average selling price has risen to 47104 USD, which is 35% higher than in 2020.
The combination of high prices and weak growth indicates that the US car market is structurally stagnating.
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The share of USD in international transactions via SWIFT reached 50.5%, the highest since 2023 and up 11.6 percentage points over 4 years.
The Euro ranks second at 21.9%, while the Renminbi accounts for only 2.7% and has remained virtually unchanged over the past 3 years.
Despite much discussion about dedollarization, the USD's position in global trade remains very strong.
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The employment data for 2025 has been revised down by 1,029,000 jobs, the largest adjustment in at least 20 years. In the last three years, a total of 2,153,000 jobs have been removed from the initial report.
Since 2019, 2,500,000 jobs have been adjusted downward and 6 out of the last 7 years have seen downward adjustments.
Such a large adjustment chain raises questions about the accuracy of labor data. When the market relies on data to price policies, the reliability of data becomes a vital factor.
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THE POSSIBILITY OF DEMOCRATS GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENATE INCREASES TO 39%
The probability of Democrats controlling the Senate in 2026 has increased to 39%, and they are also highly rated in the House of Representatives. The scenario of a power shift is gradually being priced in by the market.
If a comprehensive change occurs, tax and spending policies could be significantly adjusted. U.S. politics continues to be a major variable for risk sentiment.
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The internal cash flow is signaling extreme when the trading ratio is 100% sell and 0% buy. Insiders are offloading shares at the fastest rate ever recorded.
History shows that when corporate leaders sell heavily, the market often enters a period of high volatility. However, insider selling does not always mean a peak, but rather reflects internal caution.
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All over 227,000 followers of Michael Burry's Substack are reportedly being encouraged to short PLTR stock. This could create psychological pressure on defensive tech stocks.
When speculative capital flows in one direction, volatility can be amplified. However, if the market goes against expectations, a short squeeze can also occur.
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CEOs of large corporations are selling shares at a rapidly increasing rate. The last time insider selling surged like this was just before the pandemic.
Heavy insider selling is often a defensive signal, but it is important to consider the macroeconomic context. Not every insider selling cycle leads to a crisis.
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SUPPORT RATE FOR TRUMP AMONG YOUNG PEOPLE REACHES A LOW
Trump's support among the 18 to 44 age group has dropped to 27%, a record low and down 44 net points since August. This is a notable signal ahead of the election cycle.
Changes in the young voter group could impact long-term political strategy. In the market, potential shifts in power are always a factor to watch closely.
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THE UNITED STATES RECEIVES LOWEST CORRUPTION SCORE IN HISTORY
The United States has just received a score of 64 out of 100, a sharp decline from 75 in 2015 and has not been in the top 20 since 2017. The U.S. is now on par with the Bahamas and ranks below Uruguay, Barbados, and Lithuania.
Transparency International expresses concern that the downward trend may continue. Not only the U.S., but also the UK, Canada, France, Germany, and Brazil have hit record low levels. The global average score has dropped to 42, the lowest in over a decade, with two-thirds of countries below the threshold of 50.
As institutional trust weakens, money often seeks safe-haven assets such as gold, safe bonds, and sometimes Bitcoin. History shows that systemic instability always leads to large-scale capital reallocations.
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NOVOGRATZ: THE LEVERAGE OF BINANCE TRIGGERED A LOSS OF 19 BILLION USD
Mike Novogratz commented that the liquidation event on October 10 caused 19 billion USD to be wiped out in 24 hours, with 70% occurring in just about 40 minutes, largely related to the high leverage on Binance.
According to him, not only retail was wiped out, but market makers were also affected. When borrowed positions pile up in one direction, even a slight tilt can start the domino effect. Forced liquidation causes prices to drop quickly, spreads to widen, and liquidity to vanish.
If the main cause is leverage, this event is more mechanical than due to macro factors. When leverage is wiped out, the market often becomes healthier and sets the stage for the next cycle.
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Elon Musk's SpaceX has been approved to deploy the Starlink satellite internet service in Vietnam. This is a significant step for digital infrastructure and connectivity in remote areas.
Satellite internet can bridge the digital divide, especially in rural and island areas. The participation of Starlink also puts competitive pressure on traditional telecom providers.
In the long term, high-speed connectivity is the foundation for digital transformation and the digital economy in Vietnam.
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FLOOR FIVE CORNER MAY CUT RELATIONSHIP WITH ANTHROPIC
The Pentagon is said to be considering ending its relationship with AI company Anthropic due to restrictions on how AI is allowed to be used for military purposes.
The issue reflects the tension between the development of commercial AI and defense applications. As AI becomes a strategic asset, control and terms of use become extremely sensitive.
The global AI race is not just about technology but also about national security.
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India plans to build a super data city for AI to compete with global tech hubs, with a total investment deal of up to 175 billion USD.
The project shows the ambition to rise as a technology powerhouse from New Delhi. Data and AI infrastructure are seen as the backbone for future economic growth.
As countries pour massive investments into AI, the global technology competition is entering an unprecedented acceleration phase.
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Garrett Jin has just sold over 350 million USD in BTC on Binance and continues to deposit 261000 ETH worth 545 million USD onto the exchange. This move comes after he was previously liquidated for 250 million USD.
Transferring large assets to the exchange is often understood as preparing to sell. When a whale dumps on a large scale, short-term supply pressure can significantly increase.
The market will watch to see if this is a complete exit from the position or just a restructuring. Large flows of money always leave a clear trace.
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CEO David Solomon believes that the macro picture for 2026 is quite positive thanks to strong fiscal stimulus, large-scale AI investment, and a trend towards regulatory easing in the U.S.
As Big Tech and the government inject capital into AI infrastructure, growth can be sustained. The environment is described as constructive for the economy.
If this scenario unfolds, risky assets may continue to be supported by long-term cash flows.
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Tom Lee believes that gold has become the largest single block trade and the most effective operation. He questions whether investors still want to use stocks as a store of value when they can buy gold.
As instability rises, gold is often viewed as a traditional safe-haven asset. The shift towards gold reflects the demand to preserve purchasing power.
If gold continues to outperform, the global asset allocation structure may change significantly.
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