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Hello. My name is Vadim.

I've been in the market for 4 years.
Over this time I've gone through the full cycle of a trader:
- quick money,
- euphoria,
- mistakes,
- and painful losses.

The market quickly teaches the most important lesson:
It's not the smartest people who make money, but the most disciplined.

I don't trade emotions and don't chase every impulse.
My focus is on zones, market expectations, liquidity, macro factors, and psychology.

Here I publish:
• thoughts before movement, not after;
• 'if/else' scenarios;
• observations on BTC and the market as a whole;
• conclusions from my own mistakes and decisions.

No signals.
No promises.
No '100%'.

The market is not a chart.
The market is mindset and responsibility for your own decisions.

If this approach resonates with you - you're in the right place.

$BTC
BTC | Context Outside the Chart

The structure is indeed starting to resemble a head and shoulders pattern, but the market has not yet provided conditions for a trade.

The left shoulder and head are fairly clear.

What is forming now appears more like an attempt to build the right shoulder: a weak retracement, lacking momentum and volume.

The key point is not the shape of the pattern.

But rather how price behaves around the neckline:
— Will there be acceptance below the zone?
— Will seller initiative emerge, not just momentum from the previous move.
Until these conditions are met, this is merely observation, not a confirmed pattern.

The market is in a decision phase, and the next impulse will provide more information than any hypothesis at this moment.

A record number of transactions in the Ethereum network has been recorded in a single day — around 2.3 million.

It's not the value itself that matters, but the trend:
— User activity has been growing for several weeks;
— The metric has been updated without any price hype;
— The load comes amid stable network performance.

This is not a bullish signal.
This is a usage indicator.

Historically, on-chain activity growth:
— first appears in the data;
— and only later reflects in price.

As always, the market will decide from here.

BTC's Fear and Greed Index has returned to the 'greed' zone — 61/100 — for the first time since October.

It's not the value that matters, but the trend:
— At the end of December, the market was in 'extreme fear';
— Now sentiment has shifted, but euphoria is still absent.

This is not a signal to buy.
It's a marker of changing expectations.

Historically, such zones:
— support the market during corrections;
— but make it sensitive to negative news.

Price will decide what happens next.

BlackRock bought $BTC for approximately $646 million — the largest purchase in the past 3 months.

What matters is not the number itself, but the context:
- purchases are happening after a correction;
- volume is above average;
- there is no euphoria in the market.

This is not a signal.
It confirms that large capital continues to act according to strategy, not emotions.

If institutional demand persists — downward pressure will be limited.
If not — the market will still reflect that through price.

The market loves patience.

$ETH

Wrote about the drop to 3400+ as you can see we reached there and got almost 3% profit, my advice is to lock it in!)

We took it without being greedy...

‼️ $BTC ‼️
Critical liquidity zone

Since November 30th, Bitcoin has been trading near a key breakout level for an extended period. The price is gradually being squeezed toward the upper boundary of the range, forming accumulation, which over time typically leads to an explosive move.

However, despite being close to a breakout, the market still carries significant weight.
A large liquidity pool has formed around $86,000—approximately $250 million.
Markets rarely ignore such zones, so the likelihood of a move to capture liquidity accumulated below remains quite high when this area is reached.
At the same time, it's important to note that the current price is heading toward a breakout of the ~$98,000 level, which serves as the upper boundary of the range.

Under these conditions, it makes sense to trade from the range boundaries rather than waiting for a stable trend, which has not yet emerged.
After exiting the range, the market typically retraces, and the price reaction at these levels will indicate the next direction.
The key now is not to rush, carefully monitor price reactions at key levels, and remember that liquidity always remains the market's top priority.

Trump nearly replaced the head of the Fed. And precisely at that moment, he decided to go all in against Powell. It backfired. The Fed is now receiving subpoenas hinting at criminal charges. And for the first time in years, Powell didn't stay silent. He came out with a video and directly said: this is an attempt to subordinate the Fed to politics. The issue isn't about me—it's about who will now decide interest rates: the economy or the White House. And then the tide turned. Even within the GOP, there was a backlash. Senator Tillis stated he would block any Fed nominations until the attack on Powell ends. Without him, Republicans don't have a majority on the banking committee. In other words, a new chair simply can't be confirmed.

Worse for Trump: Powell may not leave at all. His term as chair ends in May, but he retains a seat on the Board until 2028. Instead of a quiet exit, he could stay and become a point of resistance from within. Donald K. said it aloud: they thought they were pushing him out, but in reality, they only made him angrier.

The market reacted calmly. Yields barely moved, expectations for rates stayed put, and the S&P remained on the rise. This is misleading. Trump's team might conclude that since the market doesn't care, they can keep pressuring further.

🚨 BREAK

An insider with 100% probability of winning has just opened a short position of 75 million dollars ahead of today's signing of Trump's economic bill.

This wallet has perfectly predicted all market highs and is going all-in again.

WHAT IS HAPPENING??

#TRUMP #iran #conflict
❗️Trump has raised aviation. Iran on war readiness with the US: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran has been put on full combat readiness.

It has become known that the Pentagon expects Iran's response after a possible strike by the US, so personnel at the American airbase in Qatar are advised to leave the site by evening.

The flight of eight KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft from the continental US to Hawaii, and then westward, has been recorded.

Similar deceptive maneuvers were carried out by the US Air Force last year ahead of the Midnight Hammer operation targeting Iran's nuclear facilities.

Unfriendly neighbors of Iran are also reacting suspiciously, with a plane carrying Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu departing from Tel Aviv in an unknown direction.

$ETH

Trying with stop 3460, allowing flight up to 3420 but not more…

$SOL in used, $ETH after tightening said we're dropping

Only $BTC with stop went to me, I'll check the new setup for alt and beat a bit later)

#TRUMP on the chair of the US Federal Reserve, Powell:
"This idiot will be gone soon."

Half of the crypto market did not survive the last five years

CoinGecko reports that more than half of all tokens launched since 2021 have lost liquidity and trading activity.

The key year was 2025, when millions of projects left the market. Analysts note that the era of easy launches and meme coins led to oversaturation, after which the market began a strict filtering process.

❗️Countries are urgently instructing their citizens to leave Iran in a short time – the US has been joined by France, Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Taiwan

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that all flights between Iran and Iraq have been canceled, reports Al Hadath.

⚠️🇮🇷#iran
#usa
Trump urged Iranian opposition activists to continue protests and keep the names of those persecuting them

Trump again stated that aid is already underway

Trump said Iran will once again be great

Meanwhile, the person who didn't let the bull run end with traditional euphoria:

#Trump

$ETH
Previously wrote but saying again
I'll explain: everything below 3200 is Short. If you see a 3200 hold, even on H1, send the position...

This is just 1-2%, we must follow risk management!)

#BTC
Сейчас или никогда !!!

$BTC

#Google #Gemini integrate into the Apple ecosystem

As part of the long-term partnership, Apple will incorporate Google's Gemini models and cloud technologies into Apple Intelligence.

The updated Siri will become more personalized and functional. The decision was made after an internal evaluation of alternative AI models.