等风来Vireo

There is a lot of noise in the market, filled with endless "opinions".

Professional traders shouldn't even look at news, but rely solely on data for decision-making.

The difficulty in trading lies in the fact that making mistakes can lead to profits, while doing the right thing can often result in losses.

Without a systematic risk control mechanism, trading actually introduces risks, and operational risks far exceed volatility risks.

It may seem like a lot of effort is put in daily, but it's actually a negative cycle. The correct approach is to maintain a positive cycle, continue researching, and keep accumulating.

Not all pain has value; true "effective pain" must be built within a framework of scientific methodology.

Several Somalis defrauded insurance in Minnesota, angering Trump; Trump sent ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) to arrest people, but ICE overstepped and ended up hurting American citizens; now the Democrats have seized the opportunity and have blocked the Department of Homeland Security's budget in Congress. So what’s the result? The entire U.S. government is on the brink of shutting down again (the probability jumped from 9% to 79%).

What’s most ironic? American politicians are arguing, Wall Street is on holiday, and only the crypto space is taking a hit. Because the crypto market is the only one open on weekends, all the panic funds regarding the paralysis of the U.S. government have been dumped into Bitcoin. It’s like those insurance fraudsters treating, but in the end, it’s the brothers who are long on Bitcoin that picked up the tab.

This is the current financial world—political noise is becoming the biggest shorting force, even surpassing economic data.

If Japan can't hold on, the United States will directly step in to rescue the yen. It cannot conjure money out of thin air; it can only 'print' dollars on-site to buy yen. Although this is nominally called 'joint intervention in exchange rates,' in the eyes of cryptocurrency, it is no different from the massive monetary easing in 2020— as long as the number on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet goes up, the liquidity will flow through the financial pipeline into Bitcoin. You don't need to focus on whether to raise or lower interest rates; just look at the H.4.1 report released every Thursday to see if 'foreign currency assets' have surged.

Deductive Logic: Yen crisis → Forcing the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet intervention → Releasing dollar liquidity → Overflowing into the crypto market.

Specific Reason: The yen is at the core of global arbitrage trading. If the yen collapses, the global financial system will face trouble; if the U.S. intervenes, it will have to inject liquidity. As long as the Federal Reserve has to increase its assets, BTC will be the ultimate beneficiary.

Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve; the real "big thunder" is in Japan, and this is also the next opportunity for Bitcoin.

Why has gold skyrocketed recently while Bitcoin remains as still as a dead fish?

In simple terms, the "pressure cooker" of the global financial system—the Japanese government bond market—is now under extreme stress (deviating from the average by 3.65 times, which is simply outrageous). The market's logic is now split:

Gold is trading on "fear": it is betting that the Bank of Japan might not be able to hold up, leading to issues with sovereign credit, so even if interest rates are high, everyone is buying gold for safety.

Bitcoin is trading on "tightening": the soaring yield of Japanese bonds means that cheap money globally is gone, and Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, is being firmly held down.

How to break the deadlock? Focus on the Bank of Japan. Once they can no longer withstand the pressure and intervene to stabilize the market (by lowering yields), the "panic premium" in gold will be released, and the liquidity released will become the fuel for Bitcoin's rise. Bitcoin right now is just waiting for the Bank of Japan to "back down."

Many people are still dreaming that "Web3 is a lawless land."\n\nAlthough the government has repeatedly issued documents to prevent/prohibit speculation in virtual currencies (suppressing their liquidity as currency), the tax authorities are taxing based on their "property attributes." That is: being restricted in the industry does not mean being tax-exempt.\n\nThe official attitude is quite divided but pragmatic: even if they do not encourage you to speculate in currencies, as long as you make money, the state wants 20%. Don't think that the industry is gray and that the tax bureau cannot see it; in the eyes of the tax authorities, your Bitcoin and your second-hand house are no different, both are "property."\n\n"Golden Tax Phase IV" is a dimension-reducing strike: do you think using MetaMask and decentralized exchanges (DEX) means you are undetectable? As long as you ultimately want to exchange USDT for RMB to buy a car or house, the moment the money flows into your bank account, big data will lock you in. Today's tax audits are not conducted by humans checking accounts, but by AI comparing your income and expenses — your consumption level reveals your hidden income.\n\nIn summary: Don't use technology as a shield for tax evasion; under the regulatory net of digital totalitarianism, proactive compliance is cheaper than "gambling on luck."

President Trump: A framework for a future agreement on the Greenland issue has been formed; tariffs originally set to take effect on February 1 will not be imposed.

It's still the usual routine.

#btc #ETH $BTC $ETH $BNB

Trump stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the United States will not use force and only seeks Greenland.

taco strategy has been tried and tested.

According to the schedule released by the World Economic Forum, Trump will deliver a public speech today at 21:30 Beijing time in Davos.

Given Trump's personality, it seems he will say something positive.

#Trump imposes tariffs on Europe

You are losing money in the market not because you are not working hard enough, but because you want to win too much.

The sense of debt caused by losses will drive revenge trading. Only through psychological write-offs and self-reconciliation can the purity of the decision-making environment be maintained.

Don't be intimidated by the grand narrative of 'buying Greenland'; this is just Trump running a fixed script, and your opportunity lies in leveraging others' panic.

Trump's goal is to ensure that these tariffs never truly take effect.

The most astonishing data point is: the last round of 100% tariffs on China was set to take effect on November 1, while the new trade agreement was announced on the very same day, revealing a highly orchestrated design behind it.

The current Trump is not just a president, but more like a quantitative trader. He posts tariff tweets not to actually collect taxes.

He makes strong statements over the weekend (using the market closure period to ferment fear);

On Monday, he crashes the market (retail investors panic and flee);

Midweek, he reassures (officials come out saying 'the talks are going well');

Signing before the deadline (tariffs lifted, stock market hits new highs).

For you, the value lies not in worrying about who owns Greenland, but in correcting your investment mindset. When you see 'trade war breaks out' in the news and want to cut your losses, this analysis tells you: this is exactly the buying point.

Trump is playing psychological warfare, and you can use this predictable script to be the 'smart money' that is greedy amid panic.