Barron_bitcoin
Make Crypto Great Again
Trader frecuente
4.8 año(s)
7 Siguiendo
112 Seguidores
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Publicaciones
🐻 Bear Market Survival Guide
When crypto is in extreme fear, the mission is simple: protect yourself, not chase every move. Most people lose here because emotions, not charts, are in control.
✅ What TO DO
Protect capital first; holding cash is also a position.
Trade smaller size than usual; size down until you feel calm.
Always use a stop‑loss, even on “sure things.”
Focus on high‑quality coins like Bitcoin [finance:Bitcoin] and
Ethereum [finance:Ethereum], not random hype tokens.
Zoom out and think in months/years, not minute‑by‑minute candles.
Study price action and past cycles; bear markets are where real skill is built.
❌ What NOT TO DO
Don’t FOMO into sudden green candles.
Don’t revenge‑trade or overtrade trying to “win it all back.”
Don’t touch high leverage when volatility and fear are high.
Don’t blindly copy signals or influencers without your own plan.
Don’t risk money you can’t emotionally or financially afford to lock up.
🎯 Core Goal in Extreme Fear
Your main objective now: survive first, profit later.
If you can stay solvent, calm, and disciplined through the downcycle, you’ll be in position to capture the upside when the next bull market arrives.
💡 Remember
Bull markets make you money.
Bear markets make you a trader.
Stay calm, stay patient, and stay prepared.
When crypto is in extreme fear, the mission is simple: protect yourself, not chase every move. Most people lose here because emotions, not charts, are in control.
✅ What TO DO
Protect capital first; holding cash is also a position.
Trade smaller size than usual; size down until you feel calm.
Always use a stop‑loss, even on “sure things.”
Focus on high‑quality coins like Bitcoin [finance:Bitcoin] and
Ethereum [finance:Ethereum], not random hype tokens.
Zoom out and think in months/years, not minute‑by‑minute candles.
Study price action and past cycles; bear markets are where real skill is built.
❌ What NOT TO DO
Don’t FOMO into sudden green candles.
Don’t revenge‑trade or overtrade trying to “win it all back.”
Don’t touch high leverage when volatility and fear are high.
Don’t blindly copy signals or influencers without your own plan.
Don’t risk money you can’t emotionally or financially afford to lock up.
🎯 Core Goal in Extreme Fear
Your main objective now: survive first, profit later.
If you can stay solvent, calm, and disciplined through the downcycle, you’ll be in position to capture the upside when the next bull market arrives.
💡 Remember
Bull markets make you money.
Bear markets make you a trader.
Stay calm, stay patient, and stay prepared.
#trumpendsshutdown People don’t keep losing in crypto because the market is impossible.
They lose because they bring the wrong mindset.
Most buy only after a coin has already done 2x–5x, because Twitter is screaming “next pump.” They aren’t early; they’re exit liquidity for smart money.
Then they sell winners too fast—not because the setup failed, but because they’re afraid to lose small gains. At the same time, they hold losers too long, hoping they’ll “come back.”
When price runs without them, they FOMO in and chase missed entries. That isn’t a strategy; it’s gambling.
Worst of all, many trade with money they can’t calmly afford to risk. When you trade scared, every decision is emotional and usually wrong.
Early‑stage crypto is brutal on emotional traders. That mindset simply doesn’t survive.
The ones who last do the opposite:
Stay patient instead of chasing
Wait for clear levels instead of guessing
Manage risk instead of swinging all‑in
Think long‑term instead of needing every trade to be a home run
Crypto rewards patience, discipline, and timing—not anxiety and FOMO.
They lose because they bring the wrong mindset.
Most buy only after a coin has already done 2x–5x, because Twitter is screaming “next pump.” They aren’t early; they’re exit liquidity for smart money.
Then they sell winners too fast—not because the setup failed, but because they’re afraid to lose small gains. At the same time, they hold losers too long, hoping they’ll “come back.”
When price runs without them, they FOMO in and chase missed entries. That isn’t a strategy; it’s gambling.
Worst of all, many trade with money they can’t calmly afford to risk. When you trade scared, every decision is emotional and usually wrong.
Early‑stage crypto is brutal on emotional traders. That mindset simply doesn’t survive.
The ones who last do the opposite:
Stay patient instead of chasing
Wait for clear levels instead of guessing
Manage risk instead of swinging all‑in
Think long‑term instead of needing every trade to be a home run
Crypto rewards patience, discipline, and timing—not anxiety and FOMO.
Analysts are split on whether Bitcoin [finance:Bitcoin] is heading into a 2026 “supercycle” or a brutal “super‑correction.”
Former Binance CEO CZ recently floated the idea that institutional adoption and friendlier U.S. policy could break Bitcoin out of its usual four‑year boom‑bust rhythm, fueling talk of a powerful multi‑year bull run. At the same time, BTC has already fallen over 30% from its 126,000 dollar all‑time high and is now trading around 79,000 dollars after testing nine‑month lows below 78,000 dollars.latestly+2
On the bearish side, analyst Ali Martinez argues that Bitcoin’s current pattern closely tracks its 2021–2022 cycle, when price set a high near 69,000 dollars, dropped roughly 55% into the low 30,000s, briefly reclaimed the highs, and then slid into a deep bear market that bottomed near 15,500 dollars. He notes BTC has already retraced more than 32% from the 126,000 dollar peak and warns that, if the same fractal repeats, the market could ultimately see a washout toward the 31,000–32,000 dollar area—about a 65% drawdown from the top.tradingview+2
Martinez’s thesis doesn’t rule out a long‑term bull market, but it suggests a harsher reset first: a “supercycle” might begin only after weak hands are flushed and a higher‑low base forms much lower than today’s prices. For traders and investors, the takeaway is that even in a supercycle narrative, historical patterns still allow for deep corrections, so position sizing and risk management remain crucial while BTC trades in this volatile mid‑zone.
Former Binance CEO CZ recently floated the idea that institutional adoption and friendlier U.S. policy could break Bitcoin out of its usual four‑year boom‑bust rhythm, fueling talk of a powerful multi‑year bull run. At the same time, BTC has already fallen over 30% from its 126,000 dollar all‑time high and is now trading around 79,000 dollars after testing nine‑month lows below 78,000 dollars.latestly+2
On the bearish side, analyst Ali Martinez argues that Bitcoin’s current pattern closely tracks its 2021–2022 cycle, when price set a high near 69,000 dollars, dropped roughly 55% into the low 30,000s, briefly reclaimed the highs, and then slid into a deep bear market that bottomed near 15,500 dollars. He notes BTC has already retraced more than 32% from the 126,000 dollar peak and warns that, if the same fractal repeats, the market could ultimately see a washout toward the 31,000–32,000 dollar area—about a 65% drawdown from the top.tradingview+2
Martinez’s thesis doesn’t rule out a long‑term bull market, but it suggests a harsher reset first: a “supercycle” might begin only after weak hands are flushed and a higher‑low base forms much lower than today’s prices. For traders and investors, the takeaway is that even in a supercycle narrative, historical patterns still allow for deep corrections, so position sizing and risk management remain crucial while BTC trades in this volatile mid‑zone.
#usgovshutdown We’re entering the largest data blackout markets have seen in decades:
No fresh inflation prints
No jobless claims
No GDP or PCE releases
No CFTC positioning reports
No updated Fed balance sheets
In other words, both the Fed and investors are flying blind. Without these signals, algorithms and discretionary traders lose their usual “navigation system.”
Historically, two patterns tend to emerge in data‑vacuum environments:
1️⃣ Precious metals (gold, silver, copper) often spike as investors grab hard assets when macro visibility disappears.
2️⃣ Equities slip into chaos—risk models break, volatility jumps, and price action becomes headline‑driven rather than data‑driven.
During the March 2020 funding stress, for example, the spread between SOFR and the Fed’s interest on reserve balances (IORB) blew out, signaling severe money‑market strain well before most risk assets fully repriced. That kind of dislocation can reappear when the usual data anchors go dark.
Bottom line: treat this blackout as a risk event in itself. Keep position sizes modest, respect leverage, and expect sudden, sharp moves with little warning.
$
No fresh inflation prints
No jobless claims
No GDP or PCE releases
No CFTC positioning reports
No updated Fed balance sheets
In other words, both the Fed and investors are flying blind. Without these signals, algorithms and discretionary traders lose their usual “navigation system.”
Historically, two patterns tend to emerge in data‑vacuum environments:
1️⃣ Precious metals (gold, silver, copper) often spike as investors grab hard assets when macro visibility disappears.
2️⃣ Equities slip into chaos—risk models break, volatility jumps, and price action becomes headline‑driven rather than data‑driven.
During the March 2020 funding stress, for example, the spread between SOFR and the Fed’s interest on reserve balances (IORB) blew out, signaling severe money‑market strain well before most risk assets fully repriced. That kind of dislocation can reappear when the usual data anchors go dark.
Bottom line: treat this blackout as a risk event in itself. Keep position sizes modest, respect leverage, and expect sudden, sharp moves with little warning.
$
#usppijump
Ripple CTO David Schwartz: Most XRP Holders Don't Actually Believe $100 Price Target
Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz argues that investor behavior contradicts widespread XRP [finance:XRP] price predictions of 100 dollars.
Core Argument
If people genuinely believed XRP had a realistic shot at 100 dollars, they would aggressively accumulate at current levels and refuse to sell any meaningful amounts below 10 dollars. Persistent selling below 10 dollars shows most market participants do not assign serious probability to such targets.
Schwartz Remains Cautious
When pressed to declare XRP will "never" reach 50–100 dollars, Schwartz declined. He admitted past misjudgments, like selling XRP at 0.10 dollars while thinking 0.25 dollars was unrealistic, and noted early Bitcoin [finance:Bitcoin] skepticism around 100 dollars.
Rational Market Logic
Schwartz contends that if rational investors saw even a 10% chance of XRP hitting 100 dollars within a few years, cheap supply below 10 dollars would rapidly disappear as convinced buyers absorbed it all. Since this hasn't happened, very few people truly believe in those price levels.
Markets reflect realistic risk/reward assessments, he says. Major bull runs typically arise from unexpected external catalysts, not popular price narratives from commentators like Jake Claver of Digital Ascension Group.
Ripple CTO David Schwartz: Most XRP Holders Don't Actually Believe $100 Price Target
Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz argues that investor behavior contradicts widespread XRP [finance:XRP] price predictions of 100 dollars.
Core Argument
If people genuinely believed XRP had a realistic shot at 100 dollars, they would aggressively accumulate at current levels and refuse to sell any meaningful amounts below 10 dollars. Persistent selling below 10 dollars shows most market participants do not assign serious probability to such targets.
Schwartz Remains Cautious
When pressed to declare XRP will "never" reach 50–100 dollars, Schwartz declined. He admitted past misjudgments, like selling XRP at 0.10 dollars while thinking 0.25 dollars was unrealistic, and noted early Bitcoin [finance:Bitcoin] skepticism around 100 dollars.
Rational Market Logic
Schwartz contends that if rational investors saw even a 10% chance of XRP hitting 100 dollars within a few years, cheap supply below 10 dollars would rapidly disappear as convinced buyers absorbed it all. Since this hasn't happened, very few people truly believe in those price levels.
Markets reflect realistic risk/reward assessments, he says. Major bull runs typically arise from unexpected external catalysts, not popular price narratives from commentators like Jake Claver of Digital Ascension Group.
#whoisnextfedchair BREAKING: Trump Officially Nominates Kevin Warsh as Next Fed Chair
President Donald Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. In his announcement, Trump expressed confidence in Warsh, stating he "will never let anyone down."
Key Context
Warsh, a former Fed Governor (2006-2011), is known for his hawkish views on inflation and monetary policy. Rumors of his nomination had circulated earlier, contributing to market volatility, including pressure on gold and silver prices.cnn+3
Market Implications
Warsh's appointment signals a potential policy shift toward tighter monetary control. With his hawkish stance, the U.S. dollar could strengthen further, putting pressure on risk assets like stocks and crypto in the near term.
This is not investment advice—always do your own research before making decisions.
President Donald Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. In his announcement, Trump expressed confidence in Warsh, stating he "will never let anyone down."
Key Context
Warsh, a former Fed Governor (2006-2011), is known for his hawkish views on inflation and monetary policy. Rumors of his nomination had circulated earlier, contributing to market volatility, including pressure on gold and silver prices.cnn+3
Market Implications
Warsh's appointment signals a potential policy shift toward tighter monetary control. With his hawkish stance, the U.S. dollar could strengthen further, putting pressure on risk assets like stocks and crypto in the near term.
This is not investment advice—always do your own research before making decisions.
#美联储维持利率不变 Powell Plays "Riddler" Again: No Rate Cut = Hidden Bull Signal
Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in its first 2026 meeting. Many see "no change" as bearish. Wrong. In crypto, no news is the best news. Markets feared surprises more than stability. Boot on the ground = rally path clear.
3 Hidden Signals:
1. Political Buffer
Trump's tariffs pressure Fed to cut, but Powell held firm—preserving independence. Stable rates > volatile policy for crypto bull runs.
2. Inflation Trap
PCE stuck at 2.8%. Fed fears premature easing sparks rebound. But S&P 500 [finance:S&P 500] already broke 7,000—smart money bets rates peaked.
3. Stealth Liquidity
No rate cut, but Fed buying short-term debt. Watergate isn't fully open, but pumps are already running.
History Rhymes
Late 2024: Everyone obsessed over 25bps vs 50bps cuts. Once path clarified, Bitcoin [finance:Bitcoin] rocketed to new highs. Same setup now.
Action Plan:
HODLers: Don't sell on no-cut FUD. 3.5% isn't tight. Q3 2026 likely sees 1-2 cuts. Every dip = whale accumulation.
Traders: Watch DXY. Dollar weakness = crypto strength. Keep leverage tight, BTC key support levels.
Sectors: AI tokens + L2s overflow first when liquidity returns.
Bottom Line: Don't predict Powell's every word. Global easing trend intact. Crypto as inflation hedge endures.
Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in its first 2026 meeting. Many see "no change" as bearish. Wrong. In crypto, no news is the best news. Markets feared surprises more than stability. Boot on the ground = rally path clear.
3 Hidden Signals:
1. Political Buffer
Trump's tariffs pressure Fed to cut, but Powell held firm—preserving independence. Stable rates > volatile policy for crypto bull runs.
2. Inflation Trap
PCE stuck at 2.8%. Fed fears premature easing sparks rebound. But S&P 500 [finance:S&P 500] already broke 7,000—smart money bets rates peaked.
3. Stealth Liquidity
No rate cut, but Fed buying short-term debt. Watergate isn't fully open, but pumps are already running.
History Rhymes
Late 2024: Everyone obsessed over 25bps vs 50bps cuts. Once path clarified, Bitcoin [finance:Bitcoin] rocketed to new highs. Same setup now.
Action Plan:
HODLers: Don't sell on no-cut FUD. 3.5% isn't tight. Q3 2026 likely sees 1-2 cuts. Every dip = whale accumulation.
Traders: Watch DXY. Dollar weakness = crypto strength. Keep leverage tight, BTC key support levels.
Sectors: AI tokens + L2s overflow first when liquidity returns.
Bottom Line: Don't predict Powell's every word. Global easing trend intact. Crypto as inflation hedge endures.
#fedholdsrates 🚨 Breaking: Fed Balance Sheet Watch
The Federal Reserve will release its updated balance sheet today at 4:30 p.m. ET. Traders are treating the headline number like a trigger for the next big move in risk assets.
Market expectations:
If total assets > $6.60T → Markets could go into a parabolic-style rally as investors read it as renewed liquidity support.
If total assets between $6.57T and $6.60T → Price action likely stays relatively stable, with no clear signal of additional tightening or easing.
If total assets < $6.57T → Markets may sell off further as a shrinking balance sheet is seen as stealth tightening and liquidity withdrawal.
Volatility is expected to be high around the release time, especially in equities, bonds, and crypto. Manage leverage carefully and avoid blindly trading the first move—initial reactions can be noisy and often reverse once traders digest the full details of the report.
The Federal Reserve will release its updated balance sheet today at 4:30 p.m. ET. Traders are treating the headline number like a trigger for the next big move in risk assets.
Market expectations:
If total assets > $6.60T → Markets could go into a parabolic-style rally as investors read it as renewed liquidity support.
If total assets between $6.57T and $6.60T → Price action likely stays relatively stable, with no clear signal of additional tightening or easing.
If total assets < $6.57T → Markets may sell off further as a shrinking balance sheet is seen as stealth tightening and liquidity withdrawal.
Volatility is expected to be high around the release time, especially in equities, bonds, and crypto. Manage leverage carefully and avoid blindly trading the first move—initial reactions can be noisy and often reverse once traders digest the full details of the report.
⚠️ HIGH ALERT: POWELL RESIGNATION RUMOR
RUMOR ONLY (UNCONFIRMED):
Markets are buzzing that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may announce his resignation later today. There is no official confirmation from the Federal Reserve, the White House, or major news outlets so far.binance+2
If this were true, it would be a rare and seismic event for global markets. Powell is one of the key pillars of the current monetary regime, so any hint of his departure immediately raises questions about:
The independence of the Federal Reserve
The future path of interest rates
The inflation‑control framework
Overall market confidence and liquidity
Important context:
Rumors travel faster than facts. Until the Fed releases an official statement or a credible outlet confirms the story, treat this strictly as speculation. Trading purely on headlines at this stage is essentially betting, not risk management.finance.yahoo+1
If it does get confirmed, expect:
Violent moves in stocks, bonds, and crypto as traders reprice policy risk
Rapid repricing of rate expectations across the yield curve
Intense speculation about Powell’s successor and the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.reuters+1
Markets do not wait for certainty—they move on expectations. For now, the smartest stance is: monitor, verify, then act, not the other way around.
$BTC
RUMOR ONLY (UNCONFIRMED):
Markets are buzzing that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may announce his resignation later today. There is no official confirmation from the Federal Reserve, the White House, or major news outlets so far.binance+2
If this were true, it would be a rare and seismic event for global markets. Powell is one of the key pillars of the current monetary regime, so any hint of his departure immediately raises questions about:
The independence of the Federal Reserve
The future path of interest rates
The inflation‑control framework
Overall market confidence and liquidity
Important context:
Rumors travel faster than facts. Until the Fed releases an official statement or a credible outlet confirms the story, treat this strictly as speculation. Trading purely on headlines at this stage is essentially betting, not risk management.finance.yahoo+1
If it does get confirmed, expect:
Violent moves in stocks, bonds, and crypto as traders reprice policy risk
Rapid repricing of rate expectations across the yield curve
Intense speculation about Powell’s successor and the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.reuters+1
Markets do not wait for certainty—they move on expectations. For now, the smartest stance is: monitor, verify, then act, not the other way around.
$BTC
Binance Joins NYSE, Nasdaq, Coinbase in Tokenization Push
Binance has quietly launched a tokenized asset trading platform, joining NYSE [finance:NYSE], Nasdaq [finance:Nasdaq], and Coinbase [finance:Coinbase Global, Inc.] in the race to bring traditional assets on‑chain. The move signals crypto exchanges are positioning themselves as infrastructure for the convergence of TradFi and DeFi.
What This Means
Tokenization allows fractional ownership, 24/7 trading, and composability for real‑world assets like equities, bonds, and real estate. Binance's entry leverages its massive user base and liquidity to compete with incumbents.
Broader Context
CEO Brian Armstrong has repeatedly called for regulatory clarity around tokenized securities. This development aligns with that vision—bridging regulated assets with crypto rails while staying compliant. The platform is currently in limited beta, focusing on institutional users.
Binance has quietly launched a tokenized asset trading platform, joining NYSE [finance:NYSE], Nasdaq [finance:Nasdaq], and Coinbase [finance:Coinbase Global, Inc.] in the race to bring traditional assets on‑chain. The move signals crypto exchanges are positioning themselves as infrastructure for the convergence of TradFi and DeFi.
What This Means
Tokenization allows fractional ownership, 24/7 trading, and composability for real‑world assets like equities, bonds, and real estate. Binance's entry leverages its massive user base and liquidity to compete with incumbents.
Broader Context
CEO Brian Armstrong has repeatedly called for regulatory clarity around tokenized securities. This development aligns with that vision—bridging regulated assets with crypto rails while staying compliant. The platform is currently in limited beta, focusing on institutional users.
Here are the seven items compressed to stay within 1,500 characters total, in English:
The White House said the United States is the global center for cryptocurrencies.
President Donald Trump warned he would impose a 100% tariff on Canada if Ottawa strikes a deal with China.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant said in Davos that the extra 25% tariffs on India have sharply reduced its purchases of Russian oil and could be lifted if India shifts its energy sources, arguing the duties have still brought real benefits to the U.S. economy.
Amundi CIO Vincent Mortier noted European investors have accelerated diversification away from U.S. equities since April 2025. Europeans hold about $10.4 trillion of U.S. stocks, around 49% of all foreign-owned U.S. equity. Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste‑Marie said Trump’s hostile stance toward Europe may prompt more selling, and fund managers are already getting inquiries about cutting U.S. exposure.
On 13 January 2026 (UTC+8), Pudong New Area People’s Court heard a fraud case linked to the Biying (ETCWIN) exchange involving 1.04 million yuan in claims and over ten million yuan cumulatively. Defendants Gu Ningning, Chen Gang, Mei Wenxiang and Yan Jun allegedly took 3 million yuan for a Web3 advertising plan and fled, after raising large sums via ETCWIN and HCASH ICOs that never completed proper regulatory exits.
On January 24, “BTC OG insider whale” proxy Garrett Jin argued that in a de‑dollarizing world, extending U.S. debt maturities cannot solve the problem. He sees tokenizing U.S. equities to boost stablecoin demand—echoed by BlackRock’s on‑chain RWA push—as a key refinancing path, and believes public chains like Ethereum could become global settlement layers.
NFT marketplace Nifty Gateway will shut down and urges users to withdraw assets by February 23; it was acquired by Gemini in 2019.
The White House said the United States is the global center for cryptocurrencies.
President Donald Trump warned he would impose a 100% tariff on Canada if Ottawa strikes a deal with China.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant said in Davos that the extra 25% tariffs on India have sharply reduced its purchases of Russian oil and could be lifted if India shifts its energy sources, arguing the duties have still brought real benefits to the U.S. economy.
Amundi CIO Vincent Mortier noted European investors have accelerated diversification away from U.S. equities since April 2025. Europeans hold about $10.4 trillion of U.S. stocks, around 49% of all foreign-owned U.S. equity. Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste‑Marie said Trump’s hostile stance toward Europe may prompt more selling, and fund managers are already getting inquiries about cutting U.S. exposure.
On 13 January 2026 (UTC+8), Pudong New Area People’s Court heard a fraud case linked to the Biying (ETCWIN) exchange involving 1.04 million yuan in claims and over ten million yuan cumulatively. Defendants Gu Ningning, Chen Gang, Mei Wenxiang and Yan Jun allegedly took 3 million yuan for a Web3 advertising plan and fled, after raising large sums via ETCWIN and HCASH ICOs that never completed proper regulatory exits.
On January 24, “BTC OG insider whale” proxy Garrett Jin argued that in a de‑dollarizing world, extending U.S. debt maturities cannot solve the problem. He sees tokenizing U.S. equities to boost stablecoin demand—echoed by BlackRock’s on‑chain RWA push—as a key refinancing path, and believes public chains like Ethereum could become global settlement layers.
NFT marketplace Nifty Gateway will shut down and urges users to withdraw assets by February 23; it was acquired by Gemini in 2019.
The recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds is more than a local market hiccup; it is a warning shot in a broader crisis of confidence around sovereign debt. When the world’s most heavily indebted major economy and the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries starts to face doubts about its own fiscal path, every other bond market has to pay attention.
This week, Japan’s bond market delivered a textbook example of “bond vigilantes” at work. Yields on 40‑year JGBs spiked to 4.213%, the highest level since that maturity was introduced in 2007. Long-duration paper was hit across the curve, with 30‑year and 20‑year yields each jumping more than 25 basis points in a single session. Moves of that size rival the extreme volatility seen after last April’s Trump “Liberation Day” tariff shock, underscoring how fragile investor faith has become at the long end of sovereign curves.
This week, Japan’s bond market delivered a textbook example of “bond vigilantes” at work. Yields on 40‑year JGBs spiked to 4.213%, the highest level since that maturity was introduced in 2007. Long-duration paper was hit across the curve, with 30‑year and 20‑year yields each jumping more than 25 basis points in a single session. Moves of that size rival the extreme volatility seen after last April’s Trump “Liberation Day” tariff shock, underscoring how fragile investor faith has become at the long end of sovereign curves.
#goldsilveratrecordhighs 🚨 JUST IN: CANADA SHIFTS ITS GOLD & SILVER 🇨🇦🇨🇳❌🇺🇸
Rumors are spreading that a major Canadian bank plans to withdraw its gold and silver from Western custody and place them with Chinese banks instead. The motive is clear: reduce exposure to U.S. political influence and legal risk. This is not a routine rebalancing—it reflects rising fear, strategic tension, and fading trust in the old dollar‑centric order.
Gold and silver are supposed to be the ultimate safe havens. When a close U.S. ally allegedly starts moving bullion across borders, the signal is alarming. It suggests Canada worries that any assets held in, or intermediated through, the U.S. system could one day face sanctions, freezes, or other restrictions in a future crisis. China, by contrast, is being treated as an alternative vault, outside the reach of Western policy tools.
If true, this is about far more than one institution. It would fit into a wider trend of countries and large investors quietly diversifying away from the U.S.-centered financial architecture—adding physical bullion, increasing non‑dollar reserves, and deepening links with new partners. Should more banks follow, the balance of power in global finance could gradually tilt: less reliance on U.S. custody and Treasuries, more emphasis on tangible assets and multipolar alliances.
The message is simple: capital is voting with its feet. The world is repositioning at high speed, and bullion is once again at the heart of the geopolitical chessboard.
Rumors are spreading that a major Canadian bank plans to withdraw its gold and silver from Western custody and place them with Chinese banks instead. The motive is clear: reduce exposure to U.S. political influence and legal risk. This is not a routine rebalancing—it reflects rising fear, strategic tension, and fading trust in the old dollar‑centric order.
Gold and silver are supposed to be the ultimate safe havens. When a close U.S. ally allegedly starts moving bullion across borders, the signal is alarming. It suggests Canada worries that any assets held in, or intermediated through, the U.S. system could one day face sanctions, freezes, or other restrictions in a future crisis. China, by contrast, is being treated as an alternative vault, outside the reach of Western policy tools.
If true, this is about far more than one institution. It would fit into a wider trend of countries and large investors quietly diversifying away from the U.S.-centered financial architecture—adding physical bullion, increasing non‑dollar reserves, and deepening links with new partners. Should more banks follow, the balance of power in global finance could gradually tilt: less reliance on U.S. custody and Treasuries, more emphasis on tangible assets and multipolar alliances.
The message is simple: capital is voting with its feet. The world is repositioning at high speed, and bullion is once again at the heart of the geopolitical chessboard.
@Dusk 、 $DUSK ， #Dusk Etherzilla, a Nasdaq-listed blockchain investment company, recently disclosed in its Q3 filing that it holds a total of 102,273 ETH, worth billions of dollars. This large position highlights the company’s strong conviction in Ethereum’s long-term value and strategy.[mexc]
Etherzilla’s sizable ETH holdings are significant because they indicate institutional confidence in the price and future of ETH, especially in the context of volatile market conditions. The company sees Ethereum not just as a speculative asset, but as a productive one—valuing its utility in decentralized finance (DeFi) and foundational blockchain infrastructure. This outlook contrasts with Bitcoin’s role as digital gold, focusing more on storage of value rather than productivity.[mexc]
Recently, Etherzilla appointed a new CEO with a background in digital assets, underscoring their commitment to maintaining and even extending their ETH position. The company’s strategy involves holding Ethereum through market cycles, suggesting that early and consistent institutional investment provides strong support for the ETH market. Despite potential risks and volatility, Etherzilla’s disciplined approach to risk management serves as a model for other institutions considering long-term crypto investments.[mexc]
The company’s actions are seen as a major indicator of growing institutional support and confidence in Ethereum, signaling that cryptocurrencies are becoming an essential part of diversified investment portfolios globally.[mexc]
Etherzilla’s sizable ETH holdings are significant because they indicate institutional confidence in the price and future of ETH, especially in the context of volatile market conditions. The company sees Ethereum not just as a speculative asset, but as a productive one—valuing its utility in decentralized finance (DeFi) and foundational blockchain infrastructure. This outlook contrasts with Bitcoin’s role as digital gold, focusing more on storage of value rather than productivity.[mexc]
Recently, Etherzilla appointed a new CEO with a background in digital assets, underscoring their commitment to maintaining and even extending their ETH position. The company’s strategy involves holding Ethereum through market cycles, suggesting that early and consistent institutional investment provides strong support for the ETH market. Despite potential risks and volatility, Etherzilla’s disciplined approach to risk management serves as a model for other institutions considering long-term crypto investments.[mexc]
The company’s actions are seen as a major indicator of growing institutional support and confidence in Ethereum, signaling that cryptocurrencies are becoming an essential part of diversified investment portfolios globally.[mexc]
#usjobsdata U.S. Debt Crisis Escalating: Interest Payments Now Exceed Defense Budget
Q3 2025 U.S. interest payments hit $981B, annualizing to $1.2T—exceeding the entire 2026 defense budget ($900B). This marks a structural inflection: debt service now consumes more federal resources than military spending.
The Math Problem
Q1 2026 interest alone: $179B, up 13% year-over-year. Federal revenues allocated to bondholders: 19% today, rising to 22% by 2035. For every $5 collected, $1 goes to debt holders before defense, Medicare, or Social Security receive funding.
Auction Cracks Emerging
10-year Treasury auctions show softening demand: yields down 1.1 bps in August 2025, subscription ratios declining. Primary dealers absorbing more supply as real buyers withdraw—a harbinger of demand erosion.
The Refinancing Wall
Trillions in maturing debt arrive within 24 months. Average interest rate on tradable debt: 3.36% (vs. 1.55% five years ago). Debt grows $61.7B daily. Treasury faces two bad choices: accept higher yields (accelerating deficits) or Fed intervention (currency debasement).
Market Signals
Japanese 30-year yields spiked; carry trades unwinding. Gold at $4,596/oz, silver at $90/oz. Major foreign buyers retreating. Rising commodity prices reflect confidence decay, not inflation panic—bond markets whisper before they scream.
Bottom Line
Interest payments exceeding defense spending is the warning signal most haven't yet noticed.
Q3 2025 U.S. interest payments hit $981B, annualizing to $1.2T—exceeding the entire 2026 defense budget ($900B). This marks a structural inflection: debt service now consumes more federal resources than military spending.
The Math Problem
Q1 2026 interest alone: $179B, up 13% year-over-year. Federal revenues allocated to bondholders: 19% today, rising to 22% by 2035. For every $5 collected, $1 goes to debt holders before defense, Medicare, or Social Security receive funding.
Auction Cracks Emerging
10-year Treasury auctions show softening demand: yields down 1.1 bps in August 2025, subscription ratios declining. Primary dealers absorbing more supply as real buyers withdraw—a harbinger of demand erosion.
The Refinancing Wall
Trillions in maturing debt arrive within 24 months. Average interest rate on tradable debt: 3.36% (vs. 1.55% five years ago). Debt grows $61.7B daily. Treasury faces two bad choices: accept higher yields (accelerating deficits) or Fed intervention (currency debasement).
Market Signals
Japanese 30-year yields spiked; carry trades unwinding. Gold at $4,596/oz, silver at $90/oz. Major foreign buyers retreating. Rising commodity prices reflect confidence decay, not inflation panic—bond markets whisper before they scream.
Bottom Line
Interest payments exceeding defense spending is the warning signal most haven't yet noticed.
Coinbase vs. Congress: Stablecoin Yield Battle
Coinbase [finance:Coinbase Global, Inc.] withdrew support for the CLARITY crypto regulation bill hours before a Senate vote, forcing a delay. The trigger: a banking-backed amendment banning users from earning yield on stablecoin holdings—protecting banks from losing deposits to crypto.
The Real Fight
Banks pay 0.1% on deposits, then earn 4.5% buying Treasury bonds. Stablecoins like USDC [finance:USD Coin] flip this: Coinbase earns 4.5% but shares 3.5% with users—35x better returns. Coinbase makes ~$1B annually from stablecoin yield splits. The amendment kills this revenue stream.
Why Banks Care
Stablecoins are siphoning retail deposits. If users get 3.5% on USDC versus 0.1% at banks, traditional finance loses volume and margin. So Congress—lobbied by banking interests—quietly embedded a yield ban into CLARITY to protect incumbent financial institutions.
Current Status
CEO Armstrong said "no bill is better than a bad bill," triggering the withdrawal. The White House is reportedly unhappy with Coinbase's "unilateral" move and wants them negotiating directly with community banks. Armstrong's latest statement suggests compromise efforts around regional bank interests.
Outlook
2026 is a midterm election year; the bill likely stalls until late 2026 or 2027. Despite Coinbase's extensive lobbying and Congressional presence, banks retained power to inject last-minute amendments. For crypto to capture mainstream deposits, regulatory leverage remains asymmetric.
Coinbase [finance:Coinbase Global, Inc.] withdrew support for the CLARITY crypto regulation bill hours before a Senate vote, forcing a delay. The trigger: a banking-backed amendment banning users from earning yield on stablecoin holdings—protecting banks from losing deposits to crypto.
The Real Fight
Banks pay 0.1% on deposits, then earn 4.5% buying Treasury bonds. Stablecoins like USDC [finance:USD Coin] flip this: Coinbase earns 4.5% but shares 3.5% with users—35x better returns. Coinbase makes ~$1B annually from stablecoin yield splits. The amendment kills this revenue stream.
Why Banks Care
Stablecoins are siphoning retail deposits. If users get 3.5% on USDC versus 0.1% at banks, traditional finance loses volume and margin. So Congress—lobbied by banking interests—quietly embedded a yield ban into CLARITY to protect incumbent financial institutions.
Current Status
CEO Armstrong said "no bill is better than a bad bill," triggering the withdrawal. The White House is reportedly unhappy with Coinbase's "unilateral" move and wants them negotiating directly with community banks. Armstrong's latest statement suggests compromise efforts around regional bank interests.
Outlook
2026 is a midterm election year; the bill likely stalls until late 2026 or 2027. Despite Coinbase's extensive lobbying and Congressional presence, banks retained power to inject last-minute amendments. For crypto to capture mainstream deposits, regulatory leverage remains asymmetric.
Token "1" Rises 304% in a Week: Meme Coin Evolution Toward Philosophy
A token named "1," inspired by a viral article on time management and life planning, surged 304% in one week, with market cap jumping from $4.5M to $10M+. The move reveals a fundamental shift in meme coin narratives.
The Meme Coin Evolution
Meme coins have progressed from animal avatars (Doge, Shib) to political figures (Trump-themed tokens) to now—philosophical concepts. Dan Koe's viral article on life efficiency sparked "1," despite having zero crypto relevance. This marks a paradigm shift: meme liquidity chases attention, not logic.
What Drives Value
The token doesn't ask "is this useful?" but rather "how many people discuss this?" Financializing viral attention is the core mechanism. When most BSC tokens corrected, "1" doubled against the trend—proving narrative differentiation beats market sentiment.
Why It Works Now
While Dogecoin, Catcoin, and political tokens dominate discussion, a "philosophy coin" stands out as rare and novel. In saturated meme markets, conceptual differentiation creates temporary moats for attention and liquidity.
Critical Warning
This has no fundamentals and extreme volatility. Do not treat as investment. However, the trend matters: future meme coins may rely not on cute avatars but on sufficiently viral concepts that capture social media momentum.
A token named "1," inspired by a viral article on time management and life planning, surged 304% in one week, with market cap jumping from $4.5M to $10M+. The move reveals a fundamental shift in meme coin narratives.
The Meme Coin Evolution
Meme coins have progressed from animal avatars (Doge, Shib) to political figures (Trump-themed tokens) to now—philosophical concepts. Dan Koe's viral article on life efficiency sparked "1," despite having zero crypto relevance. This marks a paradigm shift: meme liquidity chases attention, not logic.
What Drives Value
The token doesn't ask "is this useful?" but rather "how many people discuss this?" Financializing viral attention is the core mechanism. When most BSC tokens corrected, "1" doubled against the trend—proving narrative differentiation beats market sentiment.
Why It Works Now
While Dogecoin, Catcoin, and political tokens dominate discussion, a "philosophy coin" stands out as rare and novel. In saturated meme markets, conceptual differentiation creates temporary moats for attention and liquidity.
Critical Warning
This has no fundamentals and extreme volatility. Do not treat as investment. However, the trend matters: future meme coins may rely not on cute avatars but on sufficiently viral concepts that capture social media momentum.
#marketrebound BNB [finance:Binance Coin] Breaks Through 950 USDT
On January 17, 2026, at 15:54 UTC, BNB [finance:Binance Coin] surpassed the 950 USDT psychological level, trading at 956.03 USDT with a modest 3.15% gain over 24 hours. The breakout suggests steady accumulation rather than speculative frenzy.
Key Observations
The narrow 24-hour gain (3.15%) indicates disciplined buying pressure without excessive leverage. BNB's breakout above 950 is technically significant—it clears a major resistance zone and opens potential targets toward 980–1,000 USDT if momentum sustains.
Market Context
BNB's outperformance reflects confidence in Binance's ecosystem, ongoing institutional adoption of spot trading, and broader crypto market recovery. The measured pace of the move suggests institutional positioning rather than retail FOMO.
Next Resistance Levels
Watch for consolidation around 960–970 USDT. If BNB holds above 950 on daily close and volume confirms, the 1,000 USDT zone becomes a realistic target. Support sits near 930–940 USDT.
Risk Note
While momentum is positive, traders should monitor macro headwinds (regulatory updates, Fed signals) that could quickly reverse gains. Stop-losses below 940 USDT protect against reversals.
$BNB
On January 17, 2026, at 15:54 UTC, BNB [finance:Binance Coin] surpassed the 950 USDT psychological level, trading at 956.03 USDT with a modest 3.15% gain over 24 hours. The breakout suggests steady accumulation rather than speculative frenzy.
Key Observations
The narrow 24-hour gain (3.15%) indicates disciplined buying pressure without excessive leverage. BNB's breakout above 950 is technically significant—it clears a major resistance zone and opens potential targets toward 980–1,000 USDT if momentum sustains.
Market Context
BNB's outperformance reflects confidence in Binance's ecosystem, ongoing institutional adoption of spot trading, and broader crypto market recovery. The measured pace of the move suggests institutional positioning rather than retail FOMO.
Next Resistance Levels
Watch for consolidation around 960–970 USDT. If BNB holds above 950 on daily close and volume confirms, the 1,000 USDT zone becomes a realistic target. Support sits near 930–940 USDT.
Risk Note
While momentum is positive, traders should monitor macro headwinds (regulatory updates, Fed signals) that could quickly reverse gains. Stop-losses below 940 USDT protect against reversals.
$BNB
#marketrebound
Silver's 80% Surge: Mean Reversion or Structural Shift?
Silver surged 80% in 50 days, compressing the gold-silver ratio to 50:1—a 14-year low. The outperformance versus gold in 2025 reached 82 percentage points, the largest gap in two decades, signaling either classic mean reversion or a fundamental revaluation.
Structural Drivers vs. Technical Reversion
Silver is no longer just cheap gold. It's critical infrastructure for green energy and AI: EVs, solar panels, AI chips, and data centers depend on silver's superior electrical conductivity. This decades-long demand is structural, not cyclical.
Funding Momentum
Central banks will average 70 tons monthly gold purchases in 2026, supporting precious metals. Silver ETF inflows hit early-2010s highs, boosting spot demand from retail and institutions.
Goldman Sachs [finance:The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.] Warning
Silver is far more volatile than gold. Extreme outperformance historically reverses sharply. At 50:1 ratios, chasing silver offers poor risk-reward.
The Real Question
If silver is the "metal of the future," it should price against copper (industrial use), not gold (store-of-value). Either current prices don't reflect this structural shift, or the narrative is a bubble.
Verdict
Silver contains real green-energy tailwinds plus mean reversion. Central bank and retail flows support near-term prices. But at current extremes, risk-reward favors caution. Key test: does silver hold elevated levels, or reverses sharply when this squeeze unwinds?
Silver's 80% Surge: Mean Reversion or Structural Shift?
Silver surged 80% in 50 days, compressing the gold-silver ratio to 50:1—a 14-year low. The outperformance versus gold in 2025 reached 82 percentage points, the largest gap in two decades, signaling either classic mean reversion or a fundamental revaluation.
Structural Drivers vs. Technical Reversion
Silver is no longer just cheap gold. It's critical infrastructure for green energy and AI: EVs, solar panels, AI chips, and data centers depend on silver's superior electrical conductivity. This decades-long demand is structural, not cyclical.
Funding Momentum
Central banks will average 70 tons monthly gold purchases in 2026, supporting precious metals. Silver ETF inflows hit early-2010s highs, boosting spot demand from retail and institutions.
Goldman Sachs [finance:The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.] Warning
Silver is far more volatile than gold. Extreme outperformance historically reverses sharply. At 50:1 ratios, chasing silver offers poor risk-reward.
The Real Question
If silver is the "metal of the future," it should price against copper (industrial use), not gold (store-of-value). Either current prices don't reflect this structural shift, or the narrative is a bubble.
Verdict
Silver contains real green-energy tailwinds plus mean reversion. Central bank and retail flows support near-term prices. But at current extremes, risk-reward favors caution. Key test: does silver hold elevated levels, or reverses sharply when this squeeze unwinds?
#marketrebound
Bitcoin [finance:Bitcoin] rallied above 95,000 USD on January 14 as traders reacted to softer U.S. inflation and Senate progress on the CLARITY crypto market-structure bill. Cooling price pressures, shifting rate expectations, and clearer regulation together lifted risk appetite.
Inflation Data:
The latest CPI showed headline inflation at 2.7% year-on-year and core at 2.6%, matching forecasts. Lower gasoline and mortgage rates point to further disinflation. This supports expectations for Fed rate cuts later in 2026, a backdrop that historically helps risk assets like crypto. Gold rose alongside BTC, signaling persistent demand for inflation hedges.
CLARITY Act Progress:
The Senate advanced the Digital Asset Market Transparency Act, which aims to: (1) clarify SEC-CFTC oversight split, (2) place most non-security tokens under CFTC as "digital commodities," and (3) reduce legal uncertainty for token issuance. For institutions, this signals a shift from unpredictable enforcement to rules-based regulation.
Market Structure:
BTC broke above its recent 88,500–95,500 USD range with moderate volume, suggesting a move driven by macro relief and position adjustment rather than leverage. Key resistance near 98,000–100,000; support at 91,000 and 89,800.
Altcoin Rotation:
Privacy coins and older names like Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH) outperformed, while XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) lagged. Spot BTC and ETH [finance:Ethereum] ETFs saw continued inflows.
Sentiment:
Fear & Greed Index around 45 (neutral, improved). Market shows cautious positioning rather than mania—traders are accumulating, not chasing with leverage. If inflation stays cool and CLARITY moves forward, BTC could extend higher.
Bitcoin [finance:Bitcoin] rallied above 95,000 USD on January 14 as traders reacted to softer U.S. inflation and Senate progress on the CLARITY crypto market-structure bill. Cooling price pressures, shifting rate expectations, and clearer regulation together lifted risk appetite.
Inflation Data:
The latest CPI showed headline inflation at 2.7% year-on-year and core at 2.6%, matching forecasts. Lower gasoline and mortgage rates point to further disinflation. This supports expectations for Fed rate cuts later in 2026, a backdrop that historically helps risk assets like crypto. Gold rose alongside BTC, signaling persistent demand for inflation hedges.
CLARITY Act Progress:
The Senate advanced the Digital Asset Market Transparency Act, which aims to: (1) clarify SEC-CFTC oversight split, (2) place most non-security tokens under CFTC as "digital commodities," and (3) reduce legal uncertainty for token issuance. For institutions, this signals a shift from unpredictable enforcement to rules-based regulation.
Market Structure:
BTC broke above its recent 88,500–95,500 USD range with moderate volume, suggesting a move driven by macro relief and position adjustment rather than leverage. Key resistance near 98,000–100,000; support at 91,000 and 89,800.
Altcoin Rotation:
Privacy coins and older names like Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH) outperformed, while XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) lagged. Spot BTC and ETH [finance:Ethereum] ETFs saw continued inflows.
Sentiment:
Fear & Greed Index around 45 (neutral, improved). Market shows cautious positioning rather than mania—traders are accumulating, not chasing with leverage. If inflation stays cool and CLARITY moves forward, BTC could extend higher.
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