cryptocycles

🚨 BITCOIN IS FOLLOWING ITS HISTORICAL CYCLE — AND I’M POSITIONED
Most traders watch price.
I track TIME + PRICE.
That’s the edge.
⏳ TIME AXIS (Cycle Structure)
Days from ATH to cycle low after each halving:
• 2012 → 406 days
• 2016 → 363 days
• 2020 → 376 days
• 2024 → In progress
The clustering is clear.
If this cycle rhymes, the highest probability bottom window is:
📅 October – November 2026
When that window arrives, I buy — regardless of fear, headlines, or sentiment.
Because time prevents you from being front-run.
💰 PRICE AXIS (Value Zones)
I started accumulating once BTC entered the $60,000 zone.
Why?
Waiting for the “perfect level” is how retail misses entire cycles.
If price offers value → I accumulate.
If time aligns → I increase size.
Simple framework. Zero emotion.
📊 What I’m Monitoring
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) —
The on-chain indicator that marked:
• 2018 cycle bottom
• COVID crash
• 2022 bottom
We are NOT in deep capitulation yet.
That’s why a move toward $45K–$50K into late 2026 remains possible.
🎯 My Plan
1️⃣ Time Window (Oct–Nov 2026) → Strong Buy
2️⃣ Below $60K → Strong Buy
If either condition triggers, I execute systematically.
No panic. No chasing. No noise.
Markets are emotional.
Cycles are mathematical.
I follow structure — not headlines.

🔥 Bitcoin Drops Toward $60K — Is This the Midpoint of the Cycle? 📉
Bitcoin recently pulled back to the $60,000 zone, marking a correction of roughly 30%+ from recent highs. According to market data analysis from Kaiko, this move may represent a cycle midpoint rather than a final bottom.
Let’s break it down clearly 👇
📊 What the Data Is Showing
Several structural signals are flashing at the same time:
• Spot trading volume has declined significantly, indicating reduced buyer aggression
• Futures open interest has dropped, showing lower leveraged positioning
• Price is hovering near long-term technical support levels that historically matter
When liquidity, volume, and leverage cool simultaneously, it often reflects a market in consolidation — not necessarily capitulation.
🔁 Understanding the Cycle Context
Bitcoin historically moves in multi-year cycles linked to halving events. After strong post-halving rallies, markets typically enter extended correction phases before the next expansion.
A 30% drawdown is meaningful — but historically, Bitcoin corrections within broader cycles can extend further before establishing a durable bottom.
If this is the midpoint:
• Volatility could persist
• Sideways consolidation may continue
• Deeper support levels could still be tested
⚖️ Why $60K Matters
The $60K region aligns with important long-term technical structures that traders monitor closely. When price approaches major historical support:
✔ Long-term holders assess accumulation zones
✔ Short-term traders watch for breakdown or bounce confirmation
✔ Market sentiment often shifts from euphoria to uncertainty
This transition phase is typical in mid-cycle environments.
🧠 Strategic Takeaway
The key question is not whether Bitcoin dropped 30%.
The real question is whether the market is:
1️⃣ Completing a correction
2️⃣ Entering a deeper retracement
3️⃣ Consolidating before the next macro expansion
Cycle analysis suggests patience is critical in this phase.
Historically, markets reward long-term positioning more than short-term reaction during transitional periods.
Volatility is normal. Structure is what matters.
#Bitcoin #CryptoCycles #MarketStructure

​History isn't just repeating; it’s scaling. While the dollar signs grow, the human psychology driving the charts remains exactly the same.
​The Cycle Peaks and Crashes
​The 2017 Era: Bitcoin hit a peak of $21,000 before witnessing a staggering -84% drop.​The 2021 Era: The top shifted to $69,000, followed by a painful -77% correction.​The 2025 Era: We saw a high of $126,000, and the market has already pulled back by more than -70%.
​The Emotional Pendulum
​At the Peak: Euphoria takes over. It feels like the price will never stop climbing, and the "moon" is the only destination.​During the Drawdown: Panic sets in. The "death of crypto" narrative resurfaces, and it feels like the experiment is finally over.

​The Reality: It’s a different year with much bigger numbers, but it's the exact same cycle.

​Current Market Snapshot
BTC/USDT Perp: $66,886.3 (+0.04%) #BTC #CryptoCycles #Marketpsychology #BitcoinHistory $BTC