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🛢️How Big is the Oil market?
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
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Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
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🚨 EUROPE’S GAS SHOCK ISN’T OVER
Prices collapsed from 2022 highs.
But they didn’t reset to pre crisis norms.
• TTF peaked above €300/MWh in 2022
• JKM surged above $60/MMBtu
• 2025–26 levels still structurally higher than 2019
• EU power prices remain above US & China
Look at industry power costs:
• #Italy & #Germany still elevated
• EU average > US average
• #China & US structurally cheaper
Why?
• #LNG import dependence
• Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas
• Volatile global gas linkage
This is structural cost inflation.
If gas stays globally priced:
• European industry loses margin
• Deindustrialisation risk rises
• US gains manufacturing edge
Gas isn’t just fuel.
It’s competitiveness.
#oott #NatGas #Russia
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Prices collapsed from 2022 highs.
But they didn’t reset to pre crisis norms.
• TTF peaked above €300/MWh in 2022
• JKM surged above $60/MMBtu
• 2025–26 levels still structurally higher than 2019
• EU power prices remain above US & China
Look at industry power costs:
• #Italy & #Germany still elevated
• EU average > US average
• #China & US structurally cheaper
Why?
• #LNG import dependence
• Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas
• Volatile global gas linkage
This is structural cost inflation.
If gas stays globally priced:
• European industry loses margin
• Deindustrialisation risk rises
• US gains manufacturing edge
Gas isn’t just fuel.
It’s competitiveness.
#oott #NatGas #Russia
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🚨 CHEVRON TO DOUBLE OUTPUT IN VENEZUELA
With explicit US backing them🇺🇸
• 2x production in 1 field in 12–18 months
• 5x over 5 years if licenses expand
• $100m near-term infrastructure spend
• License expansion to market 100% of output
Chevron already 25% of national production.
This is sanctioned oil reintegration under US control.
If executed:
• Hundreds of kb/d back to market
• USGC refiners secure heavy crude
• Russian/Iranian barrels face competition
💡 This is an opportunity.
One company generated $500M+ annually in Venezuela pre-sanctions.
It just crushed Q4.
It has zero Venezuela revenue... For now
Full thesis, data, risks and position structure here 👇
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#oott #Venezuela
With explicit US backing them🇺🇸
• 2x production in 1 field in 12–18 months
• 5x over 5 years if licenses expand
• $100m near-term infrastructure spend
• License expansion to market 100% of output
Chevron already 25% of national production.
This is sanctioned oil reintegration under US control.
If executed:
• Hundreds of kb/d back to market
• USGC refiners secure heavy crude
• Russian/Iranian barrels face competition
💡 This is an opportunity.
One company generated $500M+ annually in Venezuela pre-sanctions.
It just crushed Q4.
It has zero Venezuela revenue... For now
Full thesis, data, risks and position structure here 👇
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#oott #Venezuela
🚨 RUSSIA DIDN’T LOSE BUYERS.
IT CHANGED THEM.
What happened?
• Sanctions reshaped flows
• Discounts redirected barrels
• Asia absorbed volume
• Europe rerouted to LNG + US crude
Russia didn’t disappear from the market.
It pivoted East.
If this persists:
• Asia locks long-term discounts
• Europe pays structural premium
• Trade routes harden
• Energy blocs solidify
Oil flows follow politics and politics now follows oil.
#oott #Russia
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IT CHANGED THEM.
What happened?
• Sanctions reshaped flows
• Discounts redirected barrels
• Asia absorbed volume
• Europe rerouted to LNG + US crude
Russia didn’t disappear from the market.
It pivoted East.
If this persists:
• Asia locks long-term discounts
• Europe pays structural premium
• Trade routes harden
• Energy blocs solidify
Oil flows follow politics and politics now follows oil.
#oott #Russia
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🚨 THE ENERGY GAP IS NOT CLOSING
It’s scaling with income
• US 250–300 GJ per person
• #India 25–30 GJ per person
• DR Congo 1 GJ per person
Huge gap between richest and poorest
Why?
• Industrialisation drives energy intensity
• Urbanisation multiplies electricity demand
• Mobility = oil demand
• Income growth = appliance growth
If billions move from $5k to $15k GDP per capita:
• Power grids must triple
• LNG demand structurally rises
• Oil demand plateaus later than expected
• Coal exits slower than models assume
Per capita #energy use is a proxy for wealth.
And most of the world is still at the bottom left of that chart.
Markets price peak demand.
Demographics price expansion.
#OOTT
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It’s scaling with income
• US 250–300 GJ per person
• #India 25–30 GJ per person
• DR Congo 1 GJ per person
Huge gap between richest and poorest
Why?
• Industrialisation drives energy intensity
• Urbanisation multiplies electricity demand
• Mobility = oil demand
• Income growth = appliance growth
If billions move from $5k to $15k GDP per capita:
• Power grids must triple
• LNG demand structurally rises
• Oil demand plateaus later than expected
• Coal exits slower than models assume
Per capita #energy use is a proxy for wealth.
And most of the world is still at the bottom left of that chart.
Markets price peak demand.
Demographics price expansion.
#OOTT
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Oil & gas runs through four core segments:
🛢️ Upstream
Exploration & production.
Driven by oil & gas prices. Highest risk, highest leverage.
🚚 Midstream
Pipelines, shipping, storage.
Driven by volumes and contracts. Infrastructure play.
🏭 Downstream
Refining & petrochemicals.
Driven by margins and product demand.
🛒 Marketing & End Use
Retail, aviation, industry.
Driven by final consumption.
When the cycle shifts, profits rotate across the chain.
#oott
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🛢️ Upstream
Exploration & production.
Driven by oil & gas prices. Highest risk, highest leverage.
🚚 Midstream
Pipelines, shipping, storage.
Driven by volumes and contracts. Infrastructure play.
🏭 Downstream
Refining & petrochemicals.
Driven by margins and product demand.
🛒 Marketing & End Use
Retail, aviation, industry.
Driven by final consumption.
When the cycle shifts, profits rotate across the chain.
#oott
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#RiskAssetsMarketShock
🚢 Oil Tankers Decide the Market
Not the Other Way Around.
This is how crude really moves ⬇️
• ULCC / VLCC
200k–320k DWT. Long-haul giants. Middle East → Asia. Lowest cost per barrel.
• Suezmax
120k–160k DWT. Optimized for the Suez Canal. Atlantic ↔ Asia flexibility.
• Aframax
80k–120k DWT. Regional workhorse. Shorter routes. Higher freight sensitivity.
• Panamax
60k–80k DWT. Canal-restricted. Niche trades only.
Tanker size = route access + freight cost + arbitrage viability.
When geopolitics hit canals or chokepoints, freight rewrites oil prices fast.
Whoever controls ships controls flows.
#oott
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🚢 Oil Tankers Decide the Market
Not the Other Way Around.
This is how crude really moves ⬇️
• ULCC / VLCC
200k–320k DWT. Long-haul giants. Middle East → Asia. Lowest cost per barrel.
• Suezmax
120k–160k DWT. Optimized for the Suez Canal. Atlantic ↔ Asia flexibility.
• Aframax
80k–120k DWT. Regional workhorse. Shorter routes. Higher freight sensitivity.
• Panamax
60k–80k DWT. Canal-restricted. Niche trades only.
Tanker size = route access + freight cost + arbitrage viability.
When geopolitics hit canals or chokepoints, freight rewrites oil prices fast.
Whoever controls ships controls flows.
#oott
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⚡️ Energy Power Is Concentrated in Just 2 Countries
That's the real secret to rule the 🌎
🇨🇳China and 🇺🇸the United States dominate almost everything that matters
🪨 Coal: China = 52% of global production
🛢️ Crude oil: US = 21%, Saudi Arabia = 11%, Russia = 11%
🔥 Natural gas: US = 25% of global output
☢️ Nuclear: US = 30%, China catching fast at 16%
🌊 Hydro: China = 30%
☀️ Solar: China = 39%
🌬️ Wind: China = 40%
🌽 Biofuels: US = 37%, Brazil = 22%
#energy #oott #natgas #coal #China
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That's the real secret to rule the 🌎
🇨🇳China and 🇺🇸the United States dominate almost everything that matters
🪨 Coal: China = 52% of global production
🛢️ Crude oil: US = 21%, Saudi Arabia = 11%, Russia = 11%
🔥 Natural gas: US = 25% of global output
☢️ Nuclear: US = 30%, China catching fast at 16%
🌊 Hydro: China = 30%
☀️ Solar: China = 39%
🌬️ Wind: China = 40%
🌽 Biofuels: US = 37%, Brazil = 22%
#energy #oott #natgas #coal #China
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📈 Gold–Oil Price Ratio Reaches Record High in 2025
The gold–oil price ratio—a measure of gold’s value relative to oil—hit an all-time high annual average of 51 barrels per ounce in 2025, roughly double its level in the 1960s.
#energy #fuels #petroleum #shale #oil #crude #OilPrice #OOTT #OPEC #WTI #gold #GoldPrice
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The gold–oil price ratio—a measure of gold’s value relative to oil—hit an all-time high annual average of 51 barrels per ounce in 2025, roughly double its level in the 1960s.
#energy #fuels #petroleum #shale #oil #crude #OilPrice #OOTT #OPEC #WTI #gold #GoldPrice
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⚠️ The Valuation Gap Is Getting Hard to Ignore
Europe vs the US supermajors
The numbers:
• Shell $224B
• #TotalEnergies $165B
• bp $103B
→ $492B combined
Now compare:
• #ExxonMobil $617B
• #Chevron $360B
This is strategy and perception.
• US majors priced for cash flow and discipline
• European majors discounted for complexity and mixed signals
💰Capital rewards clarity, not narrative
#OOTT
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Europe vs the US supermajors
The numbers:
• Shell $224B
• #TotalEnergies $165B
• bp $103B
→ $492B combined
Now compare:
• #ExxonMobil $617B
• #Chevron $360B
This is strategy and perception.
• US majors priced for cash flow and discipline
• European majors discounted for complexity and mixed signals
💰Capital rewards clarity, not narrative
#OOTT
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#USIranStandoff
‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran has seized 2 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and detained roughly 15 foreign crew members.
The seizures took place amid heightened tension after Washington dispatched a naval group to the region after Tehran’s deadly response to anti-government protests.
#oott #Iran
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‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran has seized 2 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and detained roughly 15 foreign crew members.
The seizures took place amid heightened tension after Washington dispatched a naval group to the region after Tehran’s deadly response to anti-government protests.
#oott #Iran
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🛢️Oil & Gas Still Anchor the World’s Biggest Economies
• Saudi Aramco 🇸🇦 → $1.6T market cap
• Gazprom 🇷🇺 → $70B, despite sanctions and rerouted flows
• Petrobras 🇧🇷 → $112B, leverage to offshore + dividends
• Reliance Industries 🇮🇳 → $231B, oil-to-chemicals + refining scale
Energy companies still dominate national balance sheets and the State-linked producers matter more than pure majors in GDP terms
AI moves markets.
Oil and gas still move countries.
#oott #energy #India #Russia #Brazil
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• Saudi Aramco 🇸🇦 → $1.6T market cap
• Gazprom 🇷🇺 → $70B, despite sanctions and rerouted flows
• Petrobras 🇧🇷 → $112B, leverage to offshore + dividends
• Reliance Industries 🇮🇳 → $231B, oil-to-chemicals + refining scale
Energy companies still dominate national balance sheets and the State-linked producers matter more than pure majors in GDP terms
AI moves markets.
Oil and gas still move countries.
#oott #energy #India #Russia #Brazil
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💰 How Chevron REALLY made money in 2025
Not price
Execution
The stats:
• $189B revenue -7% YoY
• $12B net income -30% YoY
• $13B upstream profit did the heavy lifting
• $108B spent on crude
• $33B operating costs
What mattered?
• US + International upstream paid the bills
• Downstream added just $3B
• Everything else lost money
Big Oil isn’t a price trade anymore.
It’s a discipline trade.
#oott #chevron
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Not price
Execution
The stats:
• $189B revenue -7% YoY
• $12B net income -30% YoY
• $13B upstream profit did the heavy lifting
• $108B spent on crude
• $33B operating costs
What mattered?
• US + International upstream paid the bills
• Downstream added just $3B
• Everything else lost money
Big Oil isn’t a price trade anymore.
It’s a discipline trade.
#oott #chevron
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🛢️ Offshore Oil Isn’t 1 Thing It’s 6...
The deeper the water, the higher the cost.
And the higher the geopolitical value.
How offshore really works?
Fixed platforms → shallow water, lowest cost
Compliant towers → deeper, more flexible
Tension-leg platforms → >300m, capital heavy, stable
Spar platforms → ultra-deep, long-life assets
Semi-submersibles → mobility + harsh environments
FPSOs → floating production, storage, export hubs
• Shallow = fast payback
• Deepwater = long cycle, fewer players
• FPSOs = energy + logistics + geopolitics in one hull
Offshore oil didn’t disappear.
It just went deeper.
#oott
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The deeper the water, the higher the cost.
And the higher the geopolitical value.
How offshore really works?
Fixed platforms → shallow water, lowest cost
Compliant towers → deeper, more flexible
Tension-leg platforms → >300m, capital heavy, stable
Spar platforms → ultra-deep, long-life assets
Semi-submersibles → mobility + harsh environments
FPSOs → floating production, storage, export hubs
• Shallow = fast payback
• Deepwater = long cycle, fewer players
• FPSOs = energy + logistics + geopolitics in one hull
Offshore oil didn’t disappear.
It just went deeper.
#oott
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#USIranStandoff
🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Oil Prices can skyrocket 🚀
Iran reportedly sent another drone to monitor the USS Abraham Lincoln.
After the first one was shot down.
Same area,Near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Test the perimeter
• Force a response
• Signal resolve without escalation
They know the rules.
They keep pushing anyway.
No damage needed.
Proximity is the message.
Markets don’t wait for strikes.
They price intent.
So the question.
How many warnings before risk finally reprices?
#oott #Iran #Drone
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🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Oil Prices can skyrocket 🚀
Iran reportedly sent another drone to monitor the USS Abraham Lincoln.
After the first one was shot down.
Same area,Near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Test the perimeter
• Force a response
• Signal resolve without escalation
They know the rules.
They keep pushing anyway.
No damage needed.
Proximity is the message.
Markets don’t wait for strikes.
They price intent.
So the question.
How many warnings before risk finally reprices?
#oott #Iran #Drone
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#MarketCorrection
Global goods trade is up +6% in H1 2025 YoY🚀
After +2% in 2024
Acceleration is real
Look at what’s pulling📈
• Equipment and chemicals lead
• Investment and tech drive volumes
• Industrial demand is back
Now the drag📉
• #Energy , #fuels #mining under pressure
• Lower prices mute value growth
• #Iron #steel autos still struggling
Trade grows where capital spends.
Not where prices deflate.
Volume is not value.
And composition matters more than speed.
So is global trade being rebuilt around investment chains.
While commodity cycles stay capped?
#oott
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Global goods trade is up +6% in H1 2025 YoY🚀
After +2% in 2024
Acceleration is real
Look at what’s pulling📈
• Equipment and chemicals lead
• Investment and tech drive volumes
• Industrial demand is back
Now the drag📉
• #Energy , #fuels #mining under pressure
• Lower prices mute value growth
• #Iron #steel autos still struggling
Trade grows where capital spends.
Not where prices deflate.
Volume is not value.
And composition matters more than speed.
So is global trade being rebuilt around investment chains.
While commodity cycles stay capped?
#oott
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🚨🛢️Devon + Coterra create the largest horizontal-operated portfolio in the US 🇺🇸
This is the structure.
• All-stock merger
• Devon holders 54%
• Coterra holders 46%
• No balance sheet stress
This is the mechanism.
• Delaware scale unlocks drilling efficiency
• Inventory depth extends runway
• Capital allocation tightens
• Marginal barrels get cheaper
This is the biggest US shale deal since Exxon–Pioneer 2023.
Rumored for years.
Operational logic finally clears.
Volumes matter.
On 2025 pro-forma output.
This combination tops US operators.
Exxon may challenge in 2026.
But today the scale is undeniable.
Does shale now reward size and inventory or is this the last cycle where scale still pays?
#oott
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This is the structure.
• All-stock merger
• Devon holders 54%
• Coterra holders 46%
• No balance sheet stress
This is the mechanism.
• Delaware scale unlocks drilling efficiency
• Inventory depth extends runway
• Capital allocation tightens
• Marginal barrels get cheaper
This is the biggest US shale deal since Exxon–Pioneer 2023.
Rumored for years.
Operational logic finally clears.
Volumes matter.
On 2025 pro-forma output.
This combination tops US operators.
Exxon may challenge in 2026.
But today the scale is undeniable.
Does shale now reward size and inventory or is this the last cycle where scale still pays?
#oott
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#USIranStandoff
🚨 JUST IN 🇺🇸🇸🇦
According to Fox News, Saudi Arabia has informed Washington that it will not allow the U.S. to use its airspace or military bases for an attack on Iran, complicating U.S. military planning in the region.
Watch out for 🛢️prices…
#oott #Trump #SaudiArabia #Iran
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🚨 JUST IN 🇺🇸🇸🇦
According to Fox News, Saudi Arabia has informed Washington that it will not allow the U.S. to use its airspace or military bases for an attack on Iran, complicating U.S. military planning in the region.
Watch out for 🛢️prices…
#oott #Trump #SaudiArabia #Iran
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