Aman Sai

Crypto markets were largely steady on Friday as traders waited for the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a key macro event that could determine short-term direction.
Market Snapshot
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly tested the $67,000 level before pulling back slightly.Ethereum (ETH) traded near $1,955, posting modest gains on the day.Overall market movement remained limited as investors avoided aggressive positioning ahead of the inflation data.
Despite the small recovery, Bitcoin remains on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
Why the CPI Report Matters
The inflation report plays a critical role in shaping expectations around Federal Reserve policy.
Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen bond yields and the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on risk assets like crypto.Lower-than-expected inflation may revive rate-cut expectations, supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum.
For now, markets appear to be in a wait-and-see mode.

Derivatives Show Cautious Optimism
While spot prices remain relatively flat, derivatives data suggests improving sentiment.
Open Interest Reset
Open interest has declined to around $15.5 billion, indicating that excessive leverage has been flushed from the system , often considered a healthy reset.
Positive Funding Rates
Perpetual futures funding rates have turned positive, signaling renewed bullish positioning across trading venues.
Institutional Conviction Improving
The three-month annualized futures basis has risen above 3%, reflecting growing professional participation.
Options Market Signals
Call option activity has increased, but traders are still paying a premium for short-term downside protection.
Liquidations & Key Levels
Approximately $256 million in 24-hour liquidations were recorded, split between long and short positions.
A key level to monitor:
$68,800 : A breakout above this level could trigger additional upside volatility.
Conclusion
Crypto markets remain stable but cautious ahead of critical inflation data.
Leverage has been cleaned upSentiment is improvingInstitutional activity is picking upShort-term risk hedging remains in place
The upcoming CPI report will likely determine whether Bitcoin and Ether push higher , or face renewed pressure.

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Bitcoin’s long-term bullish structure remains under pressure and will stay that way unless the price climbs back above $85,000, according to Jean-David Péquignot.
Speaking during a recent industry event in Hong Kong, he outlined the critical technical levels that could determine whether Bitcoin resumes its broader uptrend , or slides deeper into correction territory.
Current Market Structure
Bitcoin is currently trading within the $60,000–$70,000 range, consolidating after a sharp pullback from its all-time high in October.
The asset remains roughly 45% below its peak and has struggled to regain strong upside momentum.
According to him:
“Until the market reclaims $85K, the longer-term chart remains broken, and the path of least resistance technically remains lower.”
In simple terms:
🔴 Below $85K → Long-term trend remains weak🟢 Above $85K → Buyers regain structural control
Why $85,000 Matters
The $85K level represents:
A major supply zone where heavy selling previously occurredA technical breakout confirmation levelA signal that long-term bullish momentum has returned
Reclaiming this zone would indicate that buyers have absorbed prior selling pressure and regained control.
Key Support Levels to Watch
1️⃣ $60,000 : Psychological Support
The next major support lies at $60,000, a strong psychological level where significant buy interest has historically appeared.
If Bitcoin closes decisively below $60K, downside pressure could accelerate.
2️⃣ $58,000 : 200-Week Moving Average
If $60K fails, the next likely target is around $58,000, near the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).
This level is widely tracked by long-term investors because:
Multiple past bear markets have bottomed near this averageIt often acts as a major cycle supportLong-term capital closely monitors it
The $58K–$60K zone is viewed as the ultimate support range for this correction phase.
Could a Drop to $58K Be Constructive?
A move toward $58K wouldn’t necessarily mean long-term damage. In fact, such a decline could:
Flush out excessive leverageTrigger strong dip-buyingReset market sentimentBuild a stronger base for future upside
Sometimes, deeper corrections lay the foundation for stronger rallies.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical crossroads:
Above $85K → Bullish structure restoredBelow $60K → Risk of testing $58K$58K–$60K → Major long-term support zone

Until $85K is reclaimed, the broader chart structure remains technically under pressure , and the next decisive move will likely be defined by how the market reacts around these key levels.

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The crypto market is bracing for heightened volatility today as two major catalysts converge: the expiry of billions of dollars in crypto options and the release of key U.S. inflation data. With sentiment already fragile, traders are preparing for sharp price swings across bitcoin, ether, XRP and solana.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 5, signaling extreme fear as investors weigh institutional selling, ETF outflows, macro uncertainty and declining derivatives activity.
$2.5 Billion in Bitcoin Options Set to Expire
Bitcoin remains under pressure near the $65,000 level amid broader bearish conditions. Tech stock weakness, shifting expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts, and large-scale liquidations have added to downside risks.
Today, nearly 38,000 BTC options contracts worth approximately $2.5 billion are expiring on the Deribit exchange. The current put-call ratio of 0.71 suggests relatively neutral positioning, though uncertainty remains high.
The so-called “max pain” level — the price at which the largest number of options expire worthless — stands at $74,000, significantly above the current market price. Meanwhile, traders appear to be defending the $66,000 level, though put volumes remain elevated.
On-chain data also signals caution. Analysts point to fading conviction and signs of capitulation among investors, with recent realized losses ranking among the largest in bitcoin’s history.
$400 Million in ETH Options Expiry
Ether is also facing a major options expiry event, with more than 210,000 contracts worth roughly $407 million set to expire.
The put-call ratio stands at 0.80, while the max pain price is around $2,100. Despite whale selling and institutional outflows, traders appear to be attempting to stabilize prices near the $1,950 level.
Implied volatility has declined slightly ahead of expiry, though downside hedging activity has increased in recent sessions.
XRP and SOL Under Pressure
Smaller but still significant expiries are also impacting XRP and solana.
Over 3,000 XRP options worth around $4.3 million are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.92. XRP has slipped to roughly $1.35, and traders are watching key support levels between $1.30 and $1.40.
Meanwhile, solana options totaling over $8 million are expiring, carrying a bearish put-call ratio above 1.0. SOL has seen declining trading volumes and remains vulnerable to further volatility.
U.S. CPI Inflation Data Adds Macro Risk
In addition to derivatives expiry, traders are closely watching the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later today. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially triggering further declines in risk assets, including crypto.
However, several major Wall Street institutions expect inflation to cool modestly. Forecasts suggest headline CPI could ease to around 2.5%, with core inflation also moderating.
A softer inflation print may provide relief and open the door to a short-term rebound in digital assets.
Is the Bottom Near?
Bitcoin’s realized price , often associated with long-term market bottoms , currently sits near $55,000. Historically, BTC has traded 24–30% below this level before stabilizing in prior cycles. At present, bitcoin remains roughly 18% above that threshold, suggesting that further downside cannot be ruled out.
With billions in options expiring and macro data looming, the market is on edge. Whether today brings stabilization or deeper capitulation will likely depend on how both derivatives positioning and inflation data unfold in the coming hours.

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Investment bank Standard Chartered has turned cautious on the near-term outlook for cryptocurrencies, warning that bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 and ether could drop to around $1,400 before a meaningful recovery begins. The revised forecast reflects ongoing pressure from ETF outflows, weak macro conditions, and broader risk-off sentiment across global markets.
Lower Short-Term Targets, But Long-Term Optimism Intact
The bank has reduced its end-2026 price targets, now expecting bitcoin to reach $100,000 instead of $150,000 and ether to climb to $4,000 rather than the previously projected $7,500. Despite this downgrade, Standard Chartered maintained its long-term bullish stance, keeping its ambitious 2030 projections of $500,000 for BTC and $40,000 for ETH unchanged.
ETF Outflows and Macro Headwinds Driving Downside Risk
According to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, recent crypto weakness could persist as investors who entered through ETFs at higher prices may choose to reduce exposure rather than buy the dip. Holdings of bitcoin ETFs have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC from their peak in October 2025, with the average entry price around $90,000, leaving many investors sitting on sizable unrealized losses.
These losses, combined with a fragile macro environment, are increasing the likelihood of further selling pressure in the coming months.
Broader Market Weakness Adds to Pressure
The crypto market has already seen a notable pullback in early 2026, with bitcoin dropping roughly 23% year-to-date and total market capitalization declining sharply. Heightened volatility, large liquidations of leveraged positions, and growing correlation with weakening equity markets have all contributed to bearish sentiment.
Macro concerns , including slowing global growth, uncertain interest-rate outlooks, and delayed regulatory clarity in key markets like the U.S. , have pushed investors toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, reducing appetite for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
No Major Platform Collapses This Cycle
Despite the downturn, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current drawdown appears less severe than previous crypto bear markets. Unlike earlier cycles, the market has not witnessed major platform collapses, suggesting that the digital asset ecosystem may be maturing and becoming more resilient over time.
At its worst point in early February, bitcoin had fallen about 50% from its late-2025 all-time high, yet roughly half of the circulating supply remained in profit , a sign that structural demand remains relatively strong.
Recovery Expected After Capitulation Phase
While the bank anticipates a near-term capitulation phase, it expects prices to recover gradually once a clear bottom is established. Kendrick noted that improving liquidity conditions, clearer regulatory frameworks, and renewed institutional participation could support a rebound through the rest of 2026.
In essence, Standard Chartered’s outlook suggests that the current weakness may represent a cyclical correction rather than a breakdown of the long-term crypto thesis. Short-term volatility and downside risks remain elevated, but the bank continues to view digital assets as a constructive long-term investment class driven by structural adoption trends and expanding real-world use cases.

Bitcoin’s path to a sustained recovery may not be as smooth as many investors hope. Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin has cautioned that the market could still face another wave of downside, with BTC potentially revisiting the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before forming a durable bottom.
Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, Terpin argued that the current market behavior is unfolding almost exactly in line with historical crypto cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving events.
Skeptical of Optimistic Bottom Calls
Terpin dismissed recent predictions that bitcoin had already found its bottom at $80,000 or even $60,000. He described such calls as premature and overly optimistic given the fragile macro and market conditions.
“When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous,” Terpin said. He added that expecting a quick rebound from $60,000 levels also appeared “too soon.”
Instead, he believes the market likely has “one more point of pain” left before a true recovery begins.
Bitcoin Cycles Still Following Historical Patterns
According to Terpin, bitcoin’s price movements continue to mirror its well-known four-year cycle anchored around the halving. The halving reduces the reward miners receive roughly every four years, cutting new supply issuance and reinforcing bitcoin’s scarcity , a core driver behind its long-term value narrative.
Historically, this supply shock has preceded major bull markets, but not without a period of volatility and correction first.
“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin said, noting that prior cycles have shown a consistent pattern: a bubble peak followed by a gradual unwind.
Post-Halving Bubble Followed Its Typical Arc
Terpin pointed out that in previous cycles, the speculative peak typically occurs nine to eleven months after the halving, followed by a correction phase. In the current cycle, the bull market peak arrived in the fourth quarter after the halving , almost perfectly aligned with historical timing.
He drew a close comparison to the last cycle, where bitcoin’s highs were recorded on Nov. 10, 2021, and the market bottom came almost exactly one year later following the FTX collapse on Nov. 10, 2022.

This consistency, he argues, suggests that the present downturn should not be viewed as abnormal but rather as part of bitcoin’s natural cycle progression.
Fragile Market Could See Another Dip
While Terpin did not forecast a prolonged multi-year bear market, he warned that the environment remains fragile. Macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment could still push bitcoin lower before a true recovery phase begins.
His outlook implies that a retest of the $50K–$40K range would not necessarily invalidate the long-term bull thesis but could instead represent a final shakeout before the next sustained uptrend.
Long-Term Thesis Remains Intact
Despite the near-term caution, Terpin remains confident in bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals. The halving mechanism continues to reduce inflation and cap total supply at 21 million coins, reinforcing its narrative as “digital gold.”

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Binance has completed the full conversion of its $1 billion Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) into bitcoin, marking a significant shift in how the exchange structures its core user-protection reserve. With the acquisition of a final tranche of 4,545 BTC, SAFU now holds 15,000 BTC, valued at roughly $1 billion at the time of completion.
Strategic Rationale
Originally backed by a diversified mix of assets including stablecoins, SAFU is now fully denominated in bitcoin. The transition reflects Binance’s long-term conviction in BTC as the most reliable and liquid reserve asset within the digital asset ecosystem. The exchange has also committed to replenishing the fund should its value fall below $800 million, ensuring continued resilience against market volatility.
Execution Timeline
The conversion was executed over a planned 30-day period following Binance’s late-January announcement to reallocate $1 billion in stablecoin reserves into BTC. An early on-chain transfer of approximately 1,315 BTC from hot wallets to SAFU on Feb. 2 signaled the start of the transition. The process concluded on schedule with the final purchase, demonstrating disciplined treasury execution.
Industry Significance
This move positions Binance among a growing cohort of institutions adopting bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. As inflation concerns persist and yields on traditional assets remain constrained, BTC is increasingly viewed as a long-term store of value comparable to digital gold. By aligning its core safety net with bitcoin, Binance is reinforcing confidence in BTC’s durability, liquidity, and global acceptance.
Conclusion
The full conversion of SAFU into 15,000 BTC represents a landmark treasury reallocation by a major crypto exchange. Beyond enhancing user protection, the decision underscores Binance’s strong institutional belief in bitcoin as the premier long-term reserve asset, potentially setting a precedent for how other crypto platforms structure their strategic reserves going forward.

A growing wave of high-risk crypto trading among Gen Z investors may not be reckless speculation , it may be a rational response to a system they believe is broken.
Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong, David Pakman described the phenomenon as “economic nihilism,” arguing that younger generations are embracing leveraged crypto products because traditional wealth-building paths are increasingly out of reach.
Locked Out of Traditional Wealth
Pakman pointed to housing affordability as a central issue.
For Gen X and baby boomers, the average home cost roughly 4.5 times annual income. For Gen Z, that figure has climbed closer to 7.5 times income.
With home ownership , long considered the cornerstone of middle-class wealth , becoming unattainable for many, younger investors are reevaluating how to build financial security. Only 13% of 25-year-olds own homes today, while more than half of Gen Z investors reportedly hold crypto assets.
Rational Risk-Taking
Rather than viewing the trend as irrational gambling, Pakman framed it as strategic risk-taking.
“If the traditional pathways to long-term wealth creation are effectively closed off, then a small chance at a large return may feel more rational than the near certainty of stagnation,” he explained.
This mindset is driving participation in high-volatility products such as:
Crypto perpetual futuresMemecoinsZero-days-to-expiration optionsPrediction markets
A $100 Trillion Derivatives Explosion
One of the clearest signs of this shift is the explosive growth in crypto perpetual contracts , futures products with no expiration date.
According to data shared during the presentation, crypto perpetuals saw approximately $100 trillion in notional trading volume last year.
Prediction markets have also surged dramatically, growing from $100 million in volume to $44 billion within three years. While some activity centers around political forecasting, a significant majority of current volume is tied to sports-related markets.
A Generational Shift in Financial Behavior
The broader takeaway is that Gen Z’s embrace of risk is not simply speculative enthusiasm , it reflects structural economic frustration.
Rising living costs, student debt burdens, housing shortages and inflation have shaped a generation that questions whether traditional financial systems can deliver upward mobility.
In that context, decentralized markets offering high leverage and asymmetric upside become appealing alternatives.
A Call for Better Infrastructure
Pakman concluded that the crypto industry has a responsibility to build products that allow risk expression in more transparent and fair ways.
Lower fees, clearer disclosures and improved risk management tools could help ensure that this surge in participation strengthens , rather than destabilizes , the broader digital asset ecosystem.
As traditional wealth pathways narrow, Gen Z’s pivot toward crypto derivatives may represent not just a trend, but a structural transformation in how risk and opportunity are defined.

Ethereum extended its recent selloff on Wednesday, raising concerns that further downside could be ahead as derivatives data and technical indicators point to weakening demand. Analysts warn that ETH could be at risk of a 30% decline if key support levels fail to hold.
Ethereum Slides Amid Weak Market Conditions
ETH fell 3.3% to around $1,950, marking its fourth consecutive week in the red. The broader crypto market remains under pressure as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data dampened expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
With the U.S. economy adding 130,000 jobs in January and unemployment falling to 4.3%, traders have reduced bets on monetary easing , a development that has weighed on risk assets, including crypto.
Ethereum is now down more than 60% from its all-time high, reflecting the intensity of the ongoing crypto winter.
Futures Open Interest Hits Multi-Month Low
One of the biggest warning signs for Ethereum is the sharp drop in futures open interest.
Data from derivatives markets shows that ETH futures open interest has fallen to approximately $23 billion , the lowest level in nine months. At its 2025 peak, open interest exceeded $70 billion.
Open interest is widely viewed as a measure of leverage and market participation. A declining figure suggests that traders are closing positions and reducing risk exposure.
Historically, falling open interest during a price decline often signals continued downside momentum rather than accumulation.
Funding Rates Turn Negative
Further reinforcing the bearish outlook, Ethereum’s weighted funding rate has slipped into negative territory at -0.0067%, its lowest level in days.
Funding rates in perpetual futures markets represent the fee paid between long and short traders. A negative funding rate typically indicates that short sellers are dominant and that market participants expect lower prices ahead.
ETF Outflows Add Pressure
Institutional demand also appears to be weakening. Ethereum-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have reportedly recorded over $94 million in net outflows this month, marking the fourth consecutive month of withdrawals.
The consistent outflows suggest cautious positioning among larger investors amid ongoing volatility.
Technical Breakdown Signals Further Risk
From a technical perspective, Ethereum has broken below a key support level at $2,113, invalidating a previously forming inverted head-and-shoulders pattern , a structure that is typically considered bullish.
Additional indicators reinforce the bearish setup:
ETH is trading below all major moving averages.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues trending downward.The Average Directional Index (ADX) is rising, signaling strengthening trend momentum.

If the current downtrend continues, analysts suggest that ETH could target the $1,340 level , roughly 30% below current prices and near its 2025 lows.
However, a move above the $2,200 resistance level would invalidate the bearish scenario and potentially signal a recovery attempt.
Outlook
With leverage declining, funding rates negative, ETF flows weakening and technical support levels breaking, Ethereum faces a critical juncture. Whether buyers step in near current levels or allow the downtrend to deepen may determine the next major move in the market.
For now, the balance of indicators leans bearish as the crypto winter shows few signs of easing.

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The brief recovery in crypto markets has quickly unraveled, with Bitcoin slipping back below $66,000 as last week’s sharp rally loses momentum. What appeared to be a powerful rebound is increasingly being viewed by analysts as a temporary “dead cat bounce” rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
Bitcoin Slides Again
After plunging to $60,000 late last Thursday, Bitcoin staged a nearly 20% surge on Friday, climbing close to $72,000. However, the optimism proved short-lived.
By mid-morning U.S. trading Wednesday, Bitcoin was down more than 4% over the past 24 hours, trading just under $66,000. Major altcoins also declined:
Ether (ETH) dropped roughly 5.5%Solana (SOL) fell about 5.5%XRP slid 3.5%
The broader crypto market continues to struggle for sustained buying interest.
Strong Jobs Data Dampens Rate Cut Hopes
The latest downturn coincides with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. January job growth came in at 130,000 , nearly double economist forecasts , while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%.
Following the report, traders sharply reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts:
March rate cut odds fell to just 6%April rate cut odds dropped to 23%
Before the data release, markets were pricing in much higher probabilities of monetary easing.
However, some analysts argue that fading rate-cut hopes alone cannot explain crypto’s weakness, as the current bear market began in 2025 even while the Fed was cutting rates.
Investor Interest Appears to Fade
Beyond macroeconomic pressure, there are growing signs that investor enthusiasm for crypto is waning.
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest has fallen 51% from its October 2025 peak, signaling a significant retreat in trader conviction and leverage.
In contrast, traditional markets are showing strength. South Korea’s Kospi index recently hit record highs, with monthly trading volume up 221% year-over-year. Meanwhile, crypto exchange trading volumes have declined approximately 65% over the same period.
Analysts describe the trend as an “exit-crypto” movement, with retail investors shifting capital toward more active equity markets.
Crypto-Linked Stocks Under Pressure
The weakness is also evident in crypto-related equities:
Robinhood (HOOD) dropped 12.5% after reporting a decline in crypto trading revenue.Coinbase (COIN) fell 7% ahead of its earnings release.Strategy (MSTR) declined 4.5%.Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) fell 3.8%.Circle (CRCL), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), and Bullish (BLSH) also traded lower.
There was little green across the crypto equity sector, underscoring the broad-based retreat from digital asset exposure.
Outlook
With equities, gold, and other assets showing resilience, investors appear to be reallocating capital away from crypto , at least for now. Whether this represents a temporary rotation or a deeper structural shift in sentiment remains uncertain.
For the moment, Bitcoin’s inability to sustain its rebound above $70,000 keeps the market firmly on the defensive, with traders closely watching whether the $60,000 support zone will hold in the days ahead.

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