Crypto AnalyZen

As you know, $TSLA (Tesla)
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stock futures are now tradable on Binance. First comes the stock, then the futures.

So to analyze Tesla properly, I started with the Tesla stock chart on NASDAQ.
Before entering any market, I always start with the annual timeframe.

• 2020–2021: Rapid growth

• 2022: Deep correction

• 2023: A mid-low formed at 101.81, and a gap appeared between the 2023 low and the 2019 high. However, judging by the structure, I don’t expect this gap to be tested anytime soon.

• 2023–2024–2025: Three consecutive years of growth with long lower wicks — a sign of strong demand (more on this on the monthly chart).
To project potential upside, I measured the correction range from the 2021 high → 2023 low and extended it upward.

📌 Probable continuation targets: 570 and 727.
We can also note that 2026 opened with a gap between the 2025 close and the 2026 open. This gap was filled in the first month.

At the same time, 2026 opening level already at 25% Fibonacci of the upper tail of the 2025 candlestick indicate a high probability of a downward phase first — followed by a continuation higher.
🔸 Key Levels from the 2025 Candle
I measured the long lower wick of the 2025 annual candle using Fibonacci to define optimal entry zones.
📌 The 50% Fibonacci level = 303.04 is especially important:
• Slightly above the 2023 high
• Also aligns with the 50% retracement of the entire 2023–2025 uptrend
This level confluence increases the probability of price revisiting this area.

🔹 Monthly Structure
On the monthly chart, Tesla has maintained a bullish structure for three years:
✔ Higher highs
✔ Higher lows
A third wave is now forming.

Given the depth of previous corrections, this wave is likely to show strong momentum with only shallow pullbacks at the start.
🧭 My Plan / Areas of Interest
If a correction plays out before the next upside leg, I’m watching these zones:
• 367.71 – 382.78 → Gap between May 2025 high & Nov 2025 low
• 352.26 → 2021 close
• 346 → Lower boundary of a broader gap
• 299.29 → 2023 high
• 303.04 → 50% Fib of both structures (key confluence)
🎯 Strategy
If price corrects into these zones first:
• I’ll open small positions
• Average entries
• And become more aggressive only if price moves below the 50% Fib of the entire range

This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.

But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.

🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

🚀 Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.

And a lot.

The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.

That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.

👇 WANT MORE?

🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
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