US NFP data came in stronger than expected. Expected: 66K Actual: 130K
This is usually not great for crypto in the short term because strong job data signals a strong economy, which means the Fed has less reason to cut rates anytime soon. That’s why the DXY spiked after the release, A good data is generally positive for the dollar.
I’ve explained how this data typically works, but whether BTC actually goes up or down from here still depends on market makers which way they want to move the market and it will be more dependent on how US stocks will open.
I don’t really like what Bitcoin is doing here one candle up followed by four days of consolidation. That move up was likely just shorts taking profits.
Right now, it feels like the same old pattern.
-Price broke $90k, struggled to reclaim it, and failed. -Price broke $80k, struggled to reclaim it, and failed.
And now it’s struggling to hold above $70k.
I want to see it leave this range soon ideally today. Otherwise, it could rotate lower again.
$71,500 is the level to watch. Above that, we’re good. Below that, it still looks bad.
Yesterday, I gave an update on Bitcoin, and I mentioned that the reason the price isn’t bouncing is that the sell-off is driven by spot selling, not liquidations and good buying opportunity typically arises when there are liquidations. We discussed that when the market slowly bleeds, it usually ends with a cascade of liquidations and we saw yesterday, Bitcoin dropped significantly, falling almost 20% in a single day, going down to $60,000.
i think this move was marked by panic, by sell-offs, and by triggered liquidations. $2.17B longs were liquidated.
So now what is next?
Technically we are still in a clean downtrend but the good thing is we got what we were waiting for. $69000 is 2021 All time high and important to reclaim imo. I want to see price at least reclaim $67k-69k, once it does i think we will be in for a relief.
I flipped bearish on BTC around $91k when we discussed that fake-out above $95k. Since then, I’ve been continuously sharing my thoughts on Bitcoin. When Bitcoin dropped below $85k, I said that acceptance below this zone wouldn’t be good for the bulls.
Bitcoin is down over 20% since then.
Price is now approaching a key high-timeframe zone. The reason price is failing to bounce is that this move down is being driven by spot selling, not perp liquidations. A slow bleed to the downside usually ends with a cascade of liquidations, and that’s when price tends to give a strong relief bounce.
That being said, this is a good zone on the chart.
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