Dom Nguyen - Dom Trading

🚨 RED ALERT: INSIDERS ARE HITTING THE SELL BUTTON — HARD

Pull up the filings. It’s almost all red.
Last 7 days:
Sold: $11.6 BILLION
Bought: $59 MILLION
That’s not “normal profit taking.”
That’s a message.
And remember — that’s only what’s disclosed. The real repositioning? Likely far bigger behind the curtain.
When insiders sell at this scale, they’re not trimming.
They’re de-risking.
Look around:
Major banks reducing exposure.
Large institutions rotating capital.
Big names lightening positions.
This isn’t random. It’s coordinated caution.
Yes, price can bounce.
Yes, squeezes can happen.
But in this environment, strength can become exit liquidity.
The pattern is clear:
Protection > Performance.
That mindset doesn’t flip overnight. It can persist deep into 2026.
Simple takeaway:
When the people closest to the balance sheets are selling,
you don’t chase green candles.
You wait for real discounts.
And you avoid leverage when systemic risk is rising.
Ignore it if you want.
Just don’t say there weren’t signals.

🚨 SHOCK ALERT: FED SHUTDOWN BETS JUST SPIKED — NEXT MARKET CRASH MAY BE REAL

Prediction markets like Polymarket are now pricing a very high probability — around 70–95% — of another U.S. government shutdown by Feb. 14, 2026 due to stalled budget talks around DHS funding.
This isn’t political spin — it’s money on the line. Traders are aggressively betting that unless Congress reaches a deal, DHS and related agencies could lapse again.
And let’s be blunt — shutdowns do real economic harm in a short period: the early 2026 partial shutdown saw disruption to government services, adding uncertainty to markets and economic data.
Why it’s heating up:
The Minnesota immigration enforcement operation sparked intense political backlash, with Senate Democrats pushing to block DHS funding negotiations after fatal shootings involving federal agents, further complicating budget agreement talks. (Reddit)
DHS funding is the key fuse — if it lapses, the shutdown clock starts ticking quickly.

Shutdowns don’t just mean government workers stay home:
🔹 Paychecks get delayed
🔹 Contracting and approvals stall
🔹 Economic data releases slow down
🔹 Confidence in markets weakens
That’s why some analysts are warning markets will price this in abruptly, not gradually.
The federal immigration crackdown in Minnesota has now been announced as ending, but political fallout around DHS still influences funding negotiations.
Markets might still be underestimating this risk — but if another shutdown happens as prediction markets imply, volatility could spike before the headlines even catch up.

🚨 ALERT: AMERICA’S SOLO CRASH IS LOADING

The latest macro data wasn’t “mixed.”
It was ugly. And it exposed the one weakness almost nobody is pricing in.
This won’t be another 2008-style global domino collapse.
That playbook is outdated.
The real threat now? Sovereign insolvency — without a formal default.
Not missed payments.
But fiscal dominance:
Money printing.
Sticky inflation.
Financial repression.
Forced buyers of government debt.
If you’re waiting for a synchronized global meltdown, you’re watching the wrong movie.
Here’s the controversial part:
The global banking system is no longer tightly interconnected the way it was in 2008. It’s compartmentalized. Ring-fenced. Regionalized.
This time, the U.S. doesn’t drag the world down.
It sinks alone.
Why?
1️⃣ The U.S. is stuck in a sovereign debt spiral.
The Fed prints. The Treasury issues. The dollar absorbs the damage.
2️⃣ Basel III trapped capital inside borders.
A crisis in New York doesn’t automatically trigger forced selling in London.
3️⃣ Emerging markets trade with each other now.
The U.S. consumer is no longer the only growth engine.
4️⃣ The Fed stays “higher for longer” fighting stagflation.
Europe and China ease.
5️⃣ The toxic concentration?
U.S. commercial real estate.
U.S. Treasuries.
Held mostly by U.S. institutions.
Meanwhile, global capital is quietly reducing exposure.
That’s not a global depression.
That’s a localized one.
What invalidates this?
• A productivity boom that outruns interest costs.
• CRE stabilizing before the refinancing wall hits.
• A true 2008-style global contagion.
I’m watching all three.
This sets up a global capital rotation, not a global wipeout.
When U.S. risk gets contained, money doesn’t disappear.
It moves.
→ Commodities.
→ Real assets.
→ Undervalued non-U.S. equities.
The U.S. stagnates.
The rest accelerates.
You can ignore this.

🚨 ALTCOIN SEASON IS A LIQUIDITY TRAP — AND MOST PEOPLE WALK INTO IT WILLINGLY

Everyone romanticizes “Alt Season.”
Charts explode.
Twitter turns euphoric.
Random coins go 10x overnight.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Altcoin season is often just a liquidity extraction phase.
How the Trap Works
1️⃣ Bitcoin rallies first.
2️⃣ Liquidity rotates into large caps.
3️⃣ Then into mid caps.
4️⃣ Finally into low caps and garbage.

By the time retail apes into micro caps,
smart money is already distributing.
The crowd sees “opportunity.”
The market sees exit liquidity.
Why It Feels So Real
Because some people do make life-changing money.
But most don’t.

They:
Buy breakouts late
Ignore token unlocks
Ignore liquidity depth
Confuse momentum with value
When the music stops, alts don’t correct gently.
They collapse 70–95%.
Every cycle proves it.
The Hidden Mechanic
Altcoins are not monetary assets.
They are high-beta liquidity instruments.

When:
Global liquidity expands → alts outperform
Liquidity tightens → alts implode
That’s it.
No conspiracy.
Just flows.
The Controversial Take
Alt season is not designed for you to win.

It’s designed to:
Distribute supply
Transfer risk
Reset positioning
If you understand that, you can still profit.
If you believe every rally is the start of a “new paradigm,”
you become the liquidity.
The difference between millionaire and bagholder
is not belief.
It’s timing.

🚨 IS SILVER ABOUT TO BREAK THE SYSTEM… OR IS THIS OVERHYPE?

Let’s talk calmly.
Yes, silver production is around 800M ounces per year.
Yes, futures open interest can total several billions of ounces.
But here’s what most people misunderstand:
Futures contracts ≠ physical shortage.
The paper market always represents more “ounces” than exist in vaults.
That’s how derivatives work. Positions offset. Not every contract demands delivery.
Now… does that mean nothing is happening?
No.

There are signs worth watching:
Violent intraday swings
Spiking lease rates
Occasional backwardation (spot > futures)
Tight physical premiums in some regions
That can signal short-term stress.
But jumping from that to “banks will collapse” is a massive leap.
Silver can absolutely rally hard.
It can squeeze overleveraged traders.
It can overshoot dramatically.
But systemic collapse requires funding stress and liquidity breakdown — not just high open interest.

Here’s the grounded take:
If real yields fall and the dollar weakens, silver likely runs.
If liquidity tightens and leverage unwinds, silver dumps.
It’s still a macro asset.
The opportunity might be real.
The panic narrative probably isn’t.
Stay rational. That’s where money is made.

🚨 IF YOU’RE NOT A MILLIONAIRE YET, READ THIS CAREFULLY

There’s about $1.1 quadrillion in global assets.
$1,100,000,000,000,000.
To make $1,000,000, you only need to capture a microscopic fraction of that.
The problem isn’t “there’s no money.”
The problem is positioning.
Most people say:
“I’m good at something, but I can’t monetize it.”
That’s usually an excuse.

Everything is monetizable if:
There’s demand
You can solve a problem
You can package it correctly
I met a guy whose passion is fishing.
He built custom lures.
Bad month? $30,000 revenue.
Not because he’s a genius.
Because he found:
The right niche
The right audience
The right offer
That’s it.

Step 1: Monetize your skill.
Step 2: Build cash flow.
Step 3: Invest intelligently when opportunity appears.
Now here’s where most people freeze.
Markets will dip again.
Especially tech and AI.
And when they do, people panic.
That’s backwards.

Crashes are uncomfortable —
but they’re where new millionaires are created.
If you’re scared during downturns,
you’re too exposed or underprepared.
Cash flow + patience + timing
is how you change your life.
I’ve studied markets for over 20 years.
The biggest wealth transfers don’t happen during euphoria.
They happen when fear peaks.
When the real bottom forms and I deploy serious capital,
I’ll say it publicly.
Opportunity doesn’t knock twice.
Position yourself before it does.

🚨 GOLD ISN’T RISING BECAUSE OF INFLATION — IT’S RISING BECAUSE TRUST IS DYING

Most people still think gold moves because of inflation.
That’s lazy thinking.
Gold doesn’t care about CPI headlines.
Gold cares about real yields and collapsing trust.

1️⃣ Inflation Is Not The Driver — REAL RATES ARE
If inflation goes up but rates go up faster, gold falls.
Why?
Because what matters is:
Real Yield = Nominal Yield – Inflation
When real yields turn negative, gold explodes.
Gold rallies when:
Governments can’t outpace inflation
Savers are punished
Debt becomes unpayable without currency debasement
This isn’t about “prices rising.”
It’s about money losing credibility.

2️⃣ The USD Myth
Yes, gold usually moves inverse to the dollar.
But here’s what most people ignore:
During real systemic stress,
gold and the dollar can rise together.
The dollar is short-term liquidity.
Gold is long-term safety.
One is transactional trust.
The other is structural distrust.
If gold is rallying aggressively while the system claims stability,
something underneath is cracking.

3️⃣ The Physical Demand Story They Downplay
Paper markets can suppress volatility.
Physical markets cannot be faked forever.
Right now:
Central banks are buying gold at record levels
BRICS nations are reducing Treasury exposure
Asian demand remains structurally strong
Governments don’t buy gold for yield.
They buy it when they don’t trust the future of fiat.
That’s not speculation.
That’s preparation.
The Controversial Take
Gold isn’t a hedge against inflation.
It’s a hedge against sovereign incompetence.

It rises when:
Debt spirals
Fiscal dominance kicks in
Central banks lose control of real rates
If gold is quietly climbing while politicians say everything is fine,
believe the metal, not the microphone.
Because gold doesn’t trade narratives.
It prices fear of the system itself.

🚨 BITCOIN IS NOT “DIGITAL GOLD” — IT’S EITHER THE NEXT SAFE HAVEN… OR A LIQUIDITY TRAP

For years, people repeated the same line:
“Bitcoin is digital gold.”
But let’s be honest.
In real stress, gold and Bitcoin don’t behave the same.
When liquidity cracks:
Gold often gets bought first.
Bitcoin gets sold first.
Why?

Because gold is collateral.
Bitcoin is leverage-sensitive.
That’s the uncomfortable truth most maxis won’t say out loud.
The Safe Haven Debate
A true safe haven does three things:
Holds value during systemic stress
Gains trust when currencies weaken
Trades independent of risk assets
Gold has done this for 5,000 years.
Bitcoin?
It’s only 15 years old.
And in every major liquidity event so far, Bitcoin has traded more like high-beta tech than gold.
That doesn’t make it bad.
It makes it different.
So What Is Bitcoin Then?
Bitcoin is not a crisis hedge in the short term.
It is a monetary hedge in the long term.

When:
Central banks print
Real yields go negative
Currency debasement accelerates
Bitcoin thrives.
Not because it’s “safe” —
but because it’s scarce and politically neutral.
Gold protects stability.
Bitcoin protects against monetary repression.
The Real Comparison Nobody Talks About
Gold:
Slow
Stable
Central bank owned
System-compatible
Bitcoin:
Volatile
Transparent supply
Borderless
System-disruptive
Governments hold gold.
Individuals hold Bitcoin.
That difference matters.
The 2026 Question
If we enter:
Sovereign debt stress
Currency devaluation
Fiscal dominance
Gold likely moves first.
Bitcoin likely overreacts down…
then rips harder once liquidity returns.
That’s the pattern.
Gold is the shield.
Bitcoin is the spear.
One preserves wealth.
The other multiplies it — but only if you survive the volatility.
My Controversial Take
Bitcoin is not replacing gold.
It’s competing with it.
And in a fragmented world where trust in fiat erodes, both can win — but for different reasons.
The mistake is expecting Bitcoin to behave like gold in every crisis.
It won’t.

🚨 CHINA JUST FIRED THE FIRST SHOT IN A GLOBAL RESET?

The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw trading disruptions.
At the same time, headlines are swirling about China reducing U.S. Treasury exposure.
Some people see isolated events.
Others see a pattern.
Here’s the framework being discussed:
China has been steadily reducing U.S. Treasury holdings over the past decade
China has been a consistent buyer of physical gold
China is also known to hold a meaningful amount of Bitcoin via state-related channels
That combination suggests one thing:
Diversification away from dollar-denominated assets.
Not panic.

Not collapse.
Strategic positioning.
Why this matters
When a major holder trims Treasuries:
Global collateral tightens
Funding conditions shift
Volatility increases
Treasuries are not just “bonds.”
They are the backbone of global leverage.
If collateral tightens, leverage compresses.
When leverage compresses, markets move fast.
But here’s the nuance
This doesn’t automatically mean:
Immediate collapse
Dollar death

New world order tomorrow
Major reserve shifts happen slowly.
Markets adjust over time, not overnight.
What we might be seeing is gradual repositioning:
Reduce foreign sovereign risk
Increase hard asset exposure
Prepare for more fragmented global capital flows
That’s not conspiracy.
That’s geopolitical risk management.
Bottom line
Markets are still trading short-term narratives.
States think in decades.
Watch:
Treasury yields
Gold reserve data

Capital flow trends
FX volatility
Big structural changes don’t announce themselves loudly.
They show up in flows first, headlines later.
Stay analytical. Not emotional.

🚨 TRUMP’S 2026 MARKET PLAYBOOK — CRASH FIRST, PUMP LATER

Most people think 2026 = straight rally.
I think they’re early.
If this roadmap plays out, we get pain first — liquidity later.

Here’s the sequence I’m watching:
1⃣ THE CRACK
The U.S. economy isn’t as strong as headlines suggest:
Layoffs rising
Bankruptcies ticking up
Credit stress building
Housing demand rolling over
Sellers outnumbering buyers
That’s late-cycle behavior.
A correction in the next 2–3 months is very possible:
S&P 500: -10% to -15%
Nasdaq: -15% to -20%
Crypto: likely deeper drawdowns, maybe capitulation
Crypto doesn’t decouple in stress.
It exaggerates it.

2⃣ THE BLAME SHIFT
During the downturn, expect pressure on Jerome Powell.
Narrative writes itself:
“Rates stayed too tight.”
“Liquidity wasn’t provided.”
“The Fed reacted too slowly.”
Powell’s chair term ends May 2026.
That timing matters.
If markets are weak, he becomes the convenient scapegoat.

3⃣ THE PIVOT
If Kevin Warsh steps in as Fed Chair, easing becomes more likely.
Yield curve control.
Lower long-term yields.
Cheaper borrowing.
Cheaper borrowing = liquidity.
Liquidity = higher asset prices.
Layer on potential fiscal moves:
Tariff dividend checks
Tax cuts
Pro-crypto regulatory clarity
That’s fuel.

4⃣ THE ELECTION INCENTIVE
Midterms hit Q4 2026.
Markets rising + cash in voters’ pockets = powerful optics.
Once prices climb, people forget the pain.
The sequence could look like this:
Early 2026 → Correction + blame
Mid 2026 → Fed shift + easing
Late 2026 → Rally into elections
My Take
The next few months could be volatile.
If we get that correction, it’s not the end —
it’s the setup.
Markets don’t move in straight lines.
They reset, then reprice.
Plan for both phases.

🚨 BITCOIN BOTTOM TIMING LEAKED — OCTOBER 2026 ($37K–$43K)

Screenshot this.
I’ve analyzed 3,100 days of BTC price data across 3 full market cycles.
Different eras. Different conditions. Same result.
Here’s the part people don’t want to hear:
Every Bitcoin bear market lasts ~377 days.
Almost to the day.

The data:
2017 top → 2018 bottom: 363 days
2021 top → 2022 bottom: 376 days
2025 top → next bottom: we’re at day 127 of 377
That means we’re not even halfway through this decline.
I didn’t rely on one model.
I used five completely independent timing methods.
Different assumptions.
Different math.
Same conclusion.
👉 October 2026.

Price target range:
$37,000 – $43,000
If the top came early, the bottom does too — but it still respects time.
This is where most people mess up:
They stare at price and ignore the clock.
Markets don’t bottom when fear starts.
They bottom when time + exhaustion converge.
My view is simple:
The pain isn’t over
The best buying window isn’t now
October 2026 is where probability peaks
You don’t have to agree.
Just don’t say nobody warned you.
Screenshot this.

🚨 U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IN 4 DAYS — THIS NEVER ENDS QUIETLY

We’ve seen this movie before.
It doesn’t fade out — it snaps.
Last shutdown? Gold ripped to ATH.
Everything else suffered.
If you’re holding:
Stocks
Crypto
Bonds
Even the U.S. dollar
You need to prepare now.
This isn’t about politics.
It’s about a full information blackout.
Here’s what markets are underestimating:
DATA FAILURE
No CPI. No jobs. No official reads.
Risk models go blind. The Fed loses visibility.
COLLATERAL FEAR
Shutdown = downgrade chatter returns.
Big money goes defensive immediately.
FUNDING STRESS
RRP is almost drained.

There’s no cushion if cash protection starts.
GROWTH DAMAGE
~0.2% of GDP lost per week.
In a fragile setup, narratives flip fast.
When government operations pause,
money managers don’t debate — they de-risk.
And here’s the part most people miss:
in real stress, they dump the dollar too.
I’ll be watching flows in real time.

But know this: Risk-off rotation has already started.
I’ve been in markets 10+ years. I have a plan.
Turn notifications on so you don’t miss the next move.
A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.

🚨 WARNING: JAPAN IS ABOUT TO PULL A LEVER THAT BREAKS MARKETS 🚨

According to Bank of America, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates to 1.00% in April.
Japan hasn’t been there since the mid-1990s.
If you think this is “just Japan,” you’re missing the point.
Why this matters (in plain English)
Japan is the world’s cheap-money hub and a massive global holder.

Last time rates pushed into this zone:
1994: The “Great Bond Massacre” wiped ~$1.5T from bonds
1995: Stress kept stacking
USD/JPY collapsed to ~79.75 (yen went nuclear)
Then Japan had to cut again later that year
That sequence tells you everything.
The transmission mechanism people forget
Japan owns about $1.2T of U.S. Treasuries.
When Japan tightens, it’s not local — it hits global funding and flows:
Yen carry trades unwind
Funding costs jump
Bonds wobble
Risk assets reprice fast
This isn’t about “rates up.”

It’s about tightening into a fragile system.
Bottom line
Markets aren’t pricing this yet.
They will.
When Japan tightens at the wrong time, reactions come fast — and they don’t stay contained.
Pay attention to the yen, funding markets, and bonds.
That’s where the warning lights are.
I’ll flag it before it’s on the headlines.

🚨 WARNING: THIS “BULL MARKET” IS A MIRAGE — AND IT’S ABOUT TO SNAP 🚨

Manufactured bull markets can last a long time.
We saw it from the 1930s to the 1960s.

What people don’t realize is this:
We’re repeating that pattern almost perfectly — but stretched even further.
Same structure.
Same slope.
Same complacency.
Just more debt.
More leverage.
More distortion.
That’s why when people say “this time is different” — they’re right.
It’s not safer.
It’s worse.
Why technicals are screaming
The power of technical analysis isn’t prediction.
It’s recognition.
When you overlay today’s trajectory (since the 1990s) on that earlier era,
it’s not similar — it’s a mirror.
Different decade.
Same dance.
History doesn’t repeat perfectly.
It rhymes loudly.
So how close are we to the break?
Uncomfortably close.
If history plays out even loosely:
A ~40% drawdown from the highs is very realistic
Panic follows
Then the response everyone expects…
The Fed cuts to zero. Again.
And that’s the pivot nobody is prepared for.
The real endgame
Rate cuts won’t “save” the system this time.
They’ll expose it.

Zero rates + massive debt + fiscal dominance
= the hyperinflation path I’ve been warning about.
Markets don’t crash forever.
They crash… then currencies do.
They’ll tell you everything is under control.
They always do — right before control is lost.
Read the charts.
Not the headlines.

🚨 ALT SEASON WILL BE WAY MORE VIOLENT THAN PEOPLE CAN IMAGINE

Every cycle, people make the same mistake.
Price taps support.
RSI hits cycle lows.
And suddenly everyone yells “bear market.”
That moment?
That’s where real money is made.
Look at what history actually shows:
2017
Altcoin market cap exploded +1,000% to +4,000%
2021
Altcoin market cap ran +800% to +3,000%
Those moves didn’t start in hype.
They started in boredom, disbelief, and compression.
Right now feels dead on purpose.

Four years of compression doesn’t resolve slowly.
It resolves violently.
That’s how cycles work.
The same people calling it a bear market today
will be the ones buying your bags later
when price is already up 5x–10x and “suddenly everything makes sense.”
Millionaires aren’t made by predicting the top.
They’re made by accumulating when conviction is lowest
and selling to late believers who swore it was over.
Alt Season never warns you.
It just arrives — fast, unfair, and unforgiving.
And most people miss it every single time.