Maxicreed
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Why It Is Too Early to Call a Bear Market
We may have already seen the worst of Q1 price action, but it’s still too early to confidently label this a bear market.
$BTC has strongly rejected the $59K region. That wasn’t a weak bounce. It was an aggressive reaction that suggests real demand stepped in. When a level gets defended that hard, it tells you participants still see value there.
What we’re seeing right now looks more like capital rotating in response to global macro uncertainty. When economic outlooks get cloudy, money temporarily shifts toward safer assets. That doesn’t automatically mean long term structure is broken. It often just means risk is being repriced.
The key variable now is sentiment and catalysts.
If geopolitical tensions ease, especially with ongoing developments involving Trump and Iran, markets could quickly pivot back toward risk. Crypto is highly sensitive to liquidity shifts. The moment uncertainty compresses; flows can return just as fast as they left.
Structurally:
$59K acted as strong support and produced a sharp rejectionPrice is still holding above that baseVolatility is compressing, which often precedes expansionThis is an event-driven environment, meaning moves can be sudden
If macro conditions stabilize, this zone could become an attractive accumulation area rather than the start of a prolonged downtrend.
Right now, the market looks more like its absorbing uncertainty than entering a full bear phase.
The next move will depend less on fear and more on whether fundamentals begin to turn constructive again.
#MarketRebound #bitcoin
$BTC has strongly rejected the $59K region. That wasn’t a weak bounce. It was an aggressive reaction that suggests real demand stepped in. When a level gets defended that hard, it tells you participants still see value there.
What we’re seeing right now looks more like capital rotating in response to global macro uncertainty. When economic outlooks get cloudy, money temporarily shifts toward safer assets. That doesn’t automatically mean long term structure is broken. It often just means risk is being repriced.
The key variable now is sentiment and catalysts.
If geopolitical tensions ease, especially with ongoing developments involving Trump and Iran, markets could quickly pivot back toward risk. Crypto is highly sensitive to liquidity shifts. The moment uncertainty compresses; flows can return just as fast as they left.
Structurally:
$59K acted as strong support and produced a sharp rejectionPrice is still holding above that baseVolatility is compressing, which often precedes expansionThis is an event-driven environment, meaning moves can be sudden
If macro conditions stabilize, this zone could become an attractive accumulation area rather than the start of a prolonged downtrend.
Right now, the market looks more like its absorbing uncertainty than entering a full bear phase.
The next move will depend less on fear and more on whether fundamentals begin to turn constructive again.
#MarketRebound #bitcoin
Your observation is valid but the bullish circle is still intact and we might see some recovery if fundamental start turning constructive
BITCOIN FACES WORST Q1 IN 8 YEARS : Are back to back red months next?
As of February 16, 2026, $BTC is currently on track for its worst first-quarter performance in 8 years. The #crypto has declined approximately 22.3% year-to-date, falling from a January opening of roughly $87,700 to around $68,000.
Q1 2026 Performance Breakdown:
The current decline is the sharpest first-quarter drawdown since the 2018 bear market, when prices collapsed nearly 50% in three months.
January: Ended with a 10.2% loss.
February (to date): Down 13.4% so far, putting Bitcoin on track for its first-ever consecutive red January and February on record.
Quarterly Trend: If losses persist through March, this will mark the weakest Q1 since 2018, surpassing recent negative first quarters in 2025 (-11.8%) and 2020 (-10.8%).
Market Sentiment & Technicals
Deleveraging: Analysts describe the recent move as an "orderly deleveraging," with futures open interest dropping by over 20% to shed speculative heat.
Key Support: The $60,000–$65,000 zone is considered critical support; a break below this level could trigger large-scale liquidations toward $55,000 or lower.
Fear Index: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects "Extreme Fear" with a score of 8, indicating deeply bearish sentiment.
Are Back-to-Back Red Months Next?
Historical data shows that Bitcoin has only recorded back-to-back negative first quarters during deep bear markets (2018 and 2022). While February is currently red, some analysts suggest a potential recovery in March based on historical patterns of resilience and institutional accumulation. However, others warn that if the "four-year cycle" has peaked, 2026 could see a prolonged drawdown or "crypto winter".
Q1 2026 Performance Breakdown:
The current decline is the sharpest first-quarter drawdown since the 2018 bear market, when prices collapsed nearly 50% in three months.
January: Ended with a 10.2% loss.
February (to date): Down 13.4% so far, putting Bitcoin on track for its first-ever consecutive red January and February on record.
Quarterly Trend: If losses persist through March, this will mark the weakest Q1 since 2018, surpassing recent negative first quarters in 2025 (-11.8%) and 2020 (-10.8%).
Market Sentiment & Technicals
Deleveraging: Analysts describe the recent move as an "orderly deleveraging," with futures open interest dropping by over 20% to shed speculative heat.
Key Support: The $60,000–$65,000 zone is considered critical support; a break below this level could trigger large-scale liquidations toward $55,000 or lower.
Fear Index: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects "Extreme Fear" with a score of 8, indicating deeply bearish sentiment.
Are Back-to-Back Red Months Next?
Historical data shows that Bitcoin has only recorded back-to-back negative first quarters during deep bear markets (2018 and 2022). While February is currently red, some analysts suggest a potential recovery in March based on historical patterns of resilience and institutional accumulation. However, others warn that if the "four-year cycle" has peaked, 2026 could see a prolonged drawdown or "crypto winter".
#Solana on track to better tether with Mcap.
Can we say Solana is now the 3rd largest Blockchain?
Can we say Solana is now the 3rd largest Blockchain?
$BTC downtrend has proven $100k is a strong resistance and will need a strong fundamental factor to go beyond that resistance point .
What foreseeable factor do we think can make $BTC move past $100k?
What foreseeable factor do we think can make $BTC move past $100k?
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