BlackCat Trading Mindset

We are now halfway through Q1, and $BTC performance is running roughly 68% weaker than previous strong expansion periods. That slowdown reflects a cautious market mood: new liquidity has not fully returned, while profit-taking pressure from the previous cycle is still lingering beneath the surface.
Looking back at history, Q1 of 2014, 2018, and 2022 all showed similar behavior — price weakness following a prior cycle peak. These phases often represent a repricing period, where sentiment shifts from euphoria to capital protection. Investors reduce risk, leverage cools down, and the market transitions from momentum trading into patience-driven positioning. In that context, the way 2026 is unfolding is not unusual; it aligns with how Bitcoin has historically reset after major expansions.
At the same time, deep Q1 corrections in past cycles frequently laid the groundwork for longer-term accumulation. As volatility compresses and liquidity stabilizes, Bitcoin tends to build a new equilibrium range before the next decisive trend emerges. These periods rarely feel exciting in real time — they are often slow, noisy, and psychologically exhausting — but they create the structural foundation for future moves.
From a market-structure perspective, this stage looks more like re-accumulation than collapse. The focus shifts away from short-term price swings toward broader signals: macro liquidity conditions, capital flows, and positioning across spot and derivatives markets.
For patient participants, this is typically a phase of observation and preparation rather than aggressive prediction. Cycles rarely end in panic; more often, they transition quietly while the majority loses interest.
#BTC

Some charts tell a clear story at a glance. For me, the combined market cap of $BTC + $ETH is one of those charts right now.
The long-term trendline drawn from the 2020 lows has acted as major support multiple times across previous cycles. Every touch led to a meaningful reaction. And now, once again, total market cap is approaching that same critical zone.
Here’s what that suggests:
1️⃣ This isn’t a level that breaks easily
This is more than just a technical line — it represents a long-term psychological area where capital has historically stepped in. Zones like this usually require time and pressure before a true break or confirmation happens.
2️⃣ Major support often slows the market down
Instead of immediate breakdowns, markets typically move into a prolonged phase of back-and-forth action — bouncing, rejecting, and building a wide range before choosing direction.
Because of that, the more likely scenario right now looks like:
• A wide sideways range over the coming months
• Not strong enough for a clean new bull trend
• But not necessarily the start of a deep collapse either
This type of environment tends to exhaust both longs and shorts.
What tends to work better in this phase:
• Range trading instead of directional all-in bets
• Selective narratives instead of broad market expectations
• Patience and flexibility over strong conviction
If this long-term support holds, it could become the base for the next major cycle. If it breaks decisively with strong selling pressure, then the broader structure changes significantly.
For now, this isn’t a moment for extreme bullishness or extreme bearishness.
Sometimes the hardest market isn’t the one that crashes —
it’s the one that moves sideways long enough to test everyone’s patience.

Historically, when the MVRV ratio drops below 1, has entered periods where price trades below the average on-chain cost basis — often considered an undervalued region.
Right now, MVRV sits around 1.1, meaning #Bitcoin is approaching that zone but hasn’t fully entered it yet. This typically signals a market moving closer to long-term value territory, where risk-reward gradually shifts toward accumulation rather than excess speculation.
It doesn’t confirm an immediate bottom, but it does suggest the gap between price and fundamental on-chain valuation is narrowing — a condition that has often appeared during late-stage corrections before larger recoveries.
$BTC