1W (Macro): Price is in a corrective/bearish leg after a strong distribution phase. Until higher levels are reclaimed, rallies can be sold into major supply zones.
4H (Structure): Market is forming a range:
Range High / Supply: 71.2K–72.0K Range Low / Demand: 66.5K–68.5K
Current price is pushing into the upper boundary, which is typically a decision point.
1H (Momentum): Short-term bullish momentum, but near resistance; avoid chasing. Prefer either breakout confirmation or rejection confirmation.
⏳ Waiting for breakout confirmation above 71K (preferably 1H close + retest hold). If breakout fails, I will look for a rejection short from the 71.2K–72K area.
Market Context 1W: Larger trend is still bearish, but price is sitting near a major support zone ~190–210. 4H/1H: Strong impulsive reversal from ~150–160 into ~205–210. This area is now a decision zone.
Primary Setup (Safer): Long on Breakout + Retest Bias: Bullish continuation only if price accepts above 210. Entry: 4H close above 210, then retest holds Buy zone: 212–216 SL: 198 TP1: 235 TP2: 260 TP3: 290–300 Management Take partial at TP1, then move SL to breakeven or trail under the latest 4H higher-low.
Alternative Setup (Better R:R): Long on Pullback into Demand Bias: Buy the dip if demand holds. Entry buy zone: 196–202 SL: 186 TP1: 210–215 TP2: 235 TP3: 260 Invalidation (Long bias): A clean breakdown/acceptance below 186.
Counter-Trend Option: Short if 210–215 Rejects Bias: Weekly is still bearish—short only if the rally fails. Entry (after clear rejection): 204–209 SL: 218 TP1: 190 TP2: 175–180 TP3: 155–160 Invalidation (Short bias): Acceptance and holding above 235.
Decision Rule Hold above 210: Long continuation. Pullback to 196–202 + bullish reaction: Long dip entry. Reject 210–215 + lose 200: Short setup activates.
Trade Management (important): • At TP1 (260), consider taking partial profit and moving SL to breakeven (or 245–246). • If 260 rejects hard (strong upper wicks / bearish engulf), reduce risk and wait for a clean break & hold above 260 before targeting 280.3.
Invalidation: • 1H acceptance back below ~242 = long thesis weakens (expect deeper pullback). • Losing 225 puts 208.8 back in play.
Not financial advice. Always size positions so the SL is acceptable, and keep leverage conservative.
Till now $BTC is reacting in a same manners (ranging) as yesterday, half of the path with turtle speed is achieved. And for rest hopeful for positive progress.
You’re allowed to breathe, guys. But let’s be honest, those who enjoy the luxury of upside must also be ready to taste the downside. However as mentioned in earlier post its good for overall market.
Right now, 74K is the key line in the sand. If BTC delivers a daily close below 74K, that is not just noise, it is a confirmation that the market is still in “downside expansion” mode.
My downside roadmap (if 74K closes below)
✅ 67K–65K zone becomes the next major target (strong liquidity / demand pocket). ✅ If selling pressure stays aggressive and the market keeps expanding lower, then ~60K becomes a realistic next magnet.
Important note
A wick below levels can happen anytime. What matters most is the daily close.
Close below 74K = confirmation Reclaim back above 74K quickly = possible relief bounce
I am not predicting fear, I am mapping probabilities and liquidity.
What do you think: 74K holds, or do we visit 67K–65K next?
For Me Market should return from this point..🤑Rest in market makers hands.
Not based on personal preference, rather, from a market-structure perspective, I am anticipating a slightly deeper pullback, potentially toward the 73K region. That said, if the price move towards to retest the 200-week moving average, the outcome would be even more compelling and structurally healthier, as it would provide a stronger base for long-term participants and improve the risk-to-reward profile for future upside continuation.
90K–92K: the “decision zone” (price keeps reacting here) 96K: the upper wall / major resistance 84K: the lower wall / key support (if this breaks, things can get heavy)
If the market turns bullish
Bullish strength starts when BTC can reclaim 90K–92K and actually hold it (not just a quick wick above it).
What I expect in a bullish reaction
First, a move back toward ~96K
If BTC breaks 96K and stays above it with daily closes, then 100K–104K becomes the next realistic area to visit
One thing I have seen BTC do many times
It dips below support one last time (a quick “stop hunt”), then snaps back into the range and runs upward.
So even if we see a sweep around ~84K, I won’t be shocked if it’s followed by a strong reclaim and a push back to 92K → 96K.
Bullish warning sign
If BTC keeps getting rejected at 90K–92K, or if it breaks above 96K but immediately falls back under it (classic bull trap).
If the market turns bearish
Bearish continuation becomes more likely if BTC fails to reclaim 90K–92K, keeps making lower highs, and then we get a clean daily close below ~84K.
If that breakdown confirms, the next magnets are usually
80K–82K first, then 76K, 72K
And yes… the psychological 70K zone becomes possible if selling accelerates
Another common BTC move on the bearish side.
It may spike up to grab liquidity above ~96K, fail to hold, and then dump back through the range. That kind of move often catches both sides off guard.
Bearish warning sign
If BTC reclaims 92K strongly and then accepts above 96K, that would weaken the bearish case significantly.
At this moment, BTC looks like it is stuck in a decision phase
Hold/reclaim 90K–92K → better chances to revisit 96K and possibly higher
Lose 84K with a daily close → opens the door to 80K–82K, and deeper levels over time
Not financial advice, this is only my personal observation.
Right now, BTC still looks like it’s in a cool-down / consolidation phase after the big drop from the 120k+ area into the mid-to-low 80k zone. Instead of trending strongly, the market has been moving sideways in a range, and in ranges the price usually spends a lot of time “trapping” both sides before it finally chooses a direction.
The key zones I am watching Resistance (where price may struggle)
92.5k–93k (pivot level)
This is the first important reclaim area. If BTC closes back above it and holds, the chart looks healthier.
95k–97.5k (range top)
This is the “ceiling” of the current range. If BTC breaks and holds above this zone, that’s when the bullish breakout story becomes more real.
100k–105k (next upside area)
If the breakout happens, this is a natural next target zone based on previous structure.
Support (where buyers must defend)
90k–89k (first support)
This is the first area that matters right now. If we start getting daily closes below it, we’re probably heading lower inside the range.
87.5k–85k (range bottom / liquidity zone)
This is the main support. If price comes here, I expect a strong reaction (either a solid bounce or a breakdown attempt).
82k–80k (lower wick zone)
If 85k breaks and the market accepts below it, then this zone becomes a realistic downside target.
The 3 most likely outcomes from here 1) Range continues (most common)
If BTC holds above 89k–90k and gets back above 92.5k–93k, then we can easily rotate back toward 95k–97.5k again.
2) Bullish breakout (needs confirmation)
If BTC closes above 97.5k and then holds 95k–97k as support, then the door opens for a push toward 100k–105k and higher.
3) Bearish continuation (breakdown)
If BTC starts closing below 89k–90k, then a move toward 87.5k–85k becomes very likely.
And if 85k fails with acceptance, then 82k–80k comes into the picture.
BTC is currently in a weekly consolidation phase after reacting strongly from the bullish Weekly FVG (green zone). The repeated weekly closes holding within/above this demand band suggest buyers are absorbing supply and building a base. However, the market is still capped by the weekly supply/FVG overhead (red zone), so bullish continuation needs confirmation.
Bullish confirmation:
• Weekly close above the upper edge of the green Weekly FVG (clear acceptance).
• Follow-through into 95k+ and then a reclaim/acceptance above the red weekly supply (~96k zone).
If this happens, the consolidation is more likely accumulation before the next expansion leg.
Bearish invalidation:
• Failure to reclaim the upper range and weekly closes drifting back toward the lower edge of the green zone.
• A weekly close below the green Weekly FVG would increase the probability of a deeper support retest.
For now, the plan is simple: as long as BTC holds the green weekly demand, bullish momentum informing. The real breakout signal is acceptance above the red weekly supply.
$BTC As highlighted on Jan 17 BTC moved in the expected direction and BTC swept below the Daily FVG (green zone) today, dipping to around 91.8k and likely triggering stop-losses beneath the zone. Buyers did react from the lows (long lower wick), but the important detail is that the daily candle is still closing below the FVG, so acceptance back into demand is not confirmed yet.
On higher timeframes, the close matters more than the wick
Sweep + daily close back inside the FVG = stronger odds of a rebound and continuation.
Sweep + daily close below the FVG = higher risk the FVG flips into resistance and price seeks lower liquidity.
What I’m watching next:
Bullish case: A clean daily close back above the lower edge of the Daily FVG, then a hold on retest. If that happens, BTC can rotate toward the mid/top of the FVG and potentially push back toward 95k+.
Bearish case: If BTC keeps closing below the FVG, or breaks below ~91.8k again with a daily close, then the next likely path is a retest of ~90k, and possibly 88k–86k depending on momentum.
For now, it’s a “wait for confirmation” zone—reclaim and hold = bullish, reject and breakdown = bearish continuation.
$BTC Not to much activity. At this stage, I still believe the market is likely to revisit the 93K zone and successfully hold that level before initiating the next upward move. Beyond this expectation, the final outcome will depend on the actions of market makers.😴🤑🤯
BTC rejected the 95.5–96k resistance as expected Jan 15 BTC Update and is now likely to retest the 94–93k demand band (Daily FVG) before the next continuation attempt.
The key is the reaction: a strong bounce and structure shift from 93–94k would support a move back toward 96k, and acceptance above 96k would reopen the upside targets at 100–104k.
A sustained loss of 92–90k would invalidate the bullish retest thesis and increase probability of a deeper pullback toward 88–86k.
BTCUSDT is currently reacting at a key weekly bearish FVG / supply pocket. The first rejection from this area supports a cautious bias while we are inside/under that zone. On the daily chart, there is a bullish FVG below, which can act as a magnet for a pullback and a potential “liquidity grab” (taking nearby equal lows / short-term swing lows) before a continuation higher.
My preferred path: reject from the weekly supply → pull back into the daily bullish FVG for mitigation → look for bullish displacement / structure shift on 4H–1H → continuation toward the supply zone again and higher.
Invalidation for the pullback-long idea would be a clean daily breakdown and acceptance below the daily bullish FVG. If price instead closes and holds above the weekly supply, then continuation up can happen without a deep pullback.
Not financial advice — always manage risk and wait for confirmation.