Saif-06

*First Capital Research | Daily Equity Watch | 13-Feb-26*

*“Indices advance as HNW activity lifts market turnover”*

The Colombo Bourse posted modest gains over the session, with both major indices climbing steadily after a softer start and accelerating into the afternoon. ASPI rose about 57 points to 23,710, while S&P SL20 advanced 19 points to 6,619. Top positive contributors to the ASPI were HNB, RICH, CTEA, COMB and AEL. Market breadth was evenly split, with 113 stocks declining and 113 advancing, reflecting a balanced session. HNW participation was robust during the session. LKR 1.2Bn worth of TKYO shares were traded, representing 14.0% of total market turnover through crossings. Followed by TJL with LKR 671Mn (7.9%) and SAMP with LKR 367Mn (4.3%). Daily turnover stood at LKR 8.5Bn, marking an increase of 26.5% over the monthly average of LKR 6.7Bn. Materials sector led the daily turnover with a share of 37%, followed by the Banking, and Capital Goods sectors collectively contributing 28%. Foreign investors remained net sellers, posting a net outflow of LKR 986.2Mn.

$BTC
$ETH
$XRP

*“Yield curve eases as T-bond auction concludes”*

The secondary market yields declined across the curve, while buying interest persisted amidst large trading volumes. The PDMO concluded the T-bond auction, with the offers fully subscribed. Over 2029 segment, 15.06.2029, 15.09.2029, 15.10.2029 and 15.12.2029 maturities traded in the range of 9.34%-9.45%. Moving ahead, 01.03.2030, 15.05.2030 and 01.07.2030 traded within the band of 9.55%-9.50%. Further towards mid-term maturities, 15.03.2031, 01.10.2032, 01.06.2033 and 15.09.2034 changed hands at 9.70%, 10.10%, 10.38% and 10.60% respectively. Around the long tenor, 15.06.2035, 01.07.2037 and 15.08.2039 traded at 10.73%, 10.85% and 10.90% respectively. At the T-bond auction, PDMO accepted its initial offer in full, totaling to LKR 51.0Bn. Acceptances on 01.03.2030 and 15.08.2036 maturities were LKR 21.0Bn and LKR 30.0Bn while the weighted average yields stood at 9.52% and 10.73% respectively. On the external front, the LKR appreciated against the USD, closing at LKR 309.39/USD compared to LKR 309.46/USD recorded the previous day. Overnight liquidity in the banking system marginally expanded to LKR 296.71Bn from LKR 296.45Bn recorded previously.
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare #BTCMiningDifficultyDrop #XRPHACKED #ETFvsBTC

We have these 2 levels for buying in Gold look for bullish candle confirmation on a level then entry
if you have small Capital try to take entry from Major Level it would be Safe
$ETH
#ETHETFsApproved

*First Capital Research | Daily Equity Watch | 12-Feb-26*

*“Colombo Bourse indices dip slightly”*

The Colombo Bourse showed a subdued and slightly negative performance during the session, with both indices trading in the red. Despite the early upward momentum both the indices marginally dropped as the ASPI declined by 3 points to 23,653, while the S&P SL20 dropped by 12 points to 6,600. Top negative contributors to the ASPI were RICH, CFIN, JKH, RIL and AEL. Share prices of 125 companies declined during the session, while only 106 recorded positive contributions. HNW participation was limited and retail investors’ participation also remained subdued. Daily turnover stood at LKR 4.8Bn, marking a decrease of 29.8% over the monthly average of LKR 6.9Bn. Banking sector led the daily turnover with a share of 30%, followed by the Food Beverage & Tobacco, and Capital Goods sectors collectively contributing 31%. Foreign investors remained net sellers, posting a net outflow of LKR 42.8Mn.

*First Capital Research | Daily FI & UT Watch | 11-Feb-26*

*“Short end of the yield curve sees buying interest”*

Public Debt Management Office concluded its weekly T-Bill auction where LKR 90.0Bn was raised, accepting the fully offered amount. The weighted average yields inched down across all tenures with that of the 3M Bill inching down by 8bps to settle at 7.72% while that of the 6M and 12M tenures dipped by 10bps and 2bps, settling at 8.07% and 8.31% respectively. The secondary market yield curve witnessed buying interest in short tenors, albeit with moderate volumes and limited overall activity. Yields edged down across the yield curve compared to the previous week. Amongst the traded maturities, the 15.10.2028 bond traded at 9.05%, while 15.06.2029, 15.07.2029, 15.10.2029, and 15.12.2029 traded in the range of 9.35%–9.50%. Further along the curve, 01.03.2030, 01.07.2030, and 15.10.2030 traded between 9.60%–9.65%. The 15.03.2031 and 15.12.2032 maturities were quoted at 9.80% and 10.15%, respectively. Additionally, 01.06.2033 and 01.11.2033 traded around 10.45%–10.50%, while 15.06.2034 maturity changed hands at the rate of 10.65%. On the external front, the LKR depreciated against the USD, closing at LKR 309.46/USD compared to LKR 309.45/USD recorded the previous day.

💰 $67K target successfully achieved.
$BTC

However, if price fails to reclaim and hold above this level, the next downside target lies in the $60K-$63K range.
#USRetailSalesMissForecast #WhaleDeRiskETH #BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund

Why Win Rate Doesn’t Matter

✔️ It’s all about risk–reward
A trade with 1:5 R:R can make more than five small winners combined.

✔️ Low win rate ≠ losing trader
Even 30% winners can grow your account if your R:R is strong.

✔️ Example

30% winners × 5:1 R:R → ~166% net return
You lose often, but winners dominate growth.

✔️ Focus on big wins, not every win
Don’t chase perfection. Let your edge produce asymmetric gains.

✔️ Stop letting loss frequency scare you
Frequent small losses are normal; big wins are the engine of profits.

✔️ Discipline + R:R > win rate
The market rewards proper planning, sizing, and patience—not guessing right.

✔️ Mindset tip
Think probabilities, not outcomes. Accept losses and let winners carry the account.

Key takeaway:
A 30% win rate can outperform a 70% win rate if R:R is managed properly. Focus on edges, risk, and disciplinenot counting wins.

$SOL
💰 Solana’s been stuck under the $90 resistance for four days straight, with heavy sell pressure keeping it pinned down.

Bulls can’t push through, looks clearly bearish.
#sol #USTechFundFlows

$ETH
$BNB
$XRP

we can see this move in gold for sale side if candle closes below the level
#USTechFundFlows #GoldenOpportunity #WhaleDeRiskETH

💰 #BTC sideways for 3–4 weeks in yellow box before dropping into the red box.
$BTC
#BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge #WhenWillBTCRebound

*First Capital Research | Daily FI & UT Watch | 9-Feb-26*

*“Sustained buying interest nudges mid and long tenor yields down”*

The week began with sustained buying interest in the secondary market, amidst moderate trading volumes. Along with this backdrop, some mid and long tenor maturities saw yields edge down. In the short-term segment, 15.02.2028 traded at 9.00%, while both 01.05.2028 and 01.07.2028 traded in the range of 9.03%-9.06%. Additionally, 15.10.2028 traded at 9.14%. Moving along, 15.12.2029 changed hands at 9.55%. Further in the mid-term cluster, 01.03.2030, 01.03.2031, 15.12.2032, 01.06.2033 and 15.06.2034 traded at 9.65%, 9.88%, 10.18%, 10.50% and 10.70% respectively. Over the long-term maturities, 15.06.2035, 01.07.2037 and 15.08.2039 traded at 10.80%, 10.98% and 11.02% respectively. On the external front, the LKR appreciated against the USD, closing at LKR 309.38/USD compared to LKR 309.46/USD recorded the previous day. Overnight liquidity in the banking system slightly expanded to LKR 278.20Bn from LKR 275.19Bn recorded previously.

*-First Capital Research-*

President Trump reiterates his 100,000 target for the Dow Jones.

5 & 10 EMA — Unique Lesson (Short Points)

5 EMA = immediate pressure

10 EMA = short-term control

EMAs are context, not entry signals

Trend is strong when price stays on one side of both

Chop when candles cut through 5 & 10 repeatedly

Best pullbacks happen into the 5–10 EMA zone

Shallow pullbacks = trend health

Deep pullbacks past 10 EMA = weak momentum

First trend warning: closes on wrong side of both EMAs

Flattening EMAs = momentum leakage

Use on 5m–15m (execution), 1h (pressure)

Avoid during low-volume / ranging sessions

EMAs tell you when to stay aggressive, not when to enter

$BTC

In 2011, someone bought 10,000 Bitcoin for $7,805 at $0.78 and 14 years later sold it for $1.09 billion at $109,246.

That’s a 140,000x return on investment.
#BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge #RiskAssetsMarketShock #WhaleDeRiskETH

🇺🇸 UPDATE: The US strategic Bitcoin reserve is down nearly $5B since its inception as $BTC slides 45% from its peak.

$BTC
💰 Bitcoin Taps 0.236 Fib Level at $71.5k expecting a correction from here to $66.6k.
#WhenWillBTCRebound #RiskAssetsMarketShock

Here's your high impact forex news schedule for *06 Feb 2026 (Friday)*.

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