Lonna Hum Sot5

The question keeps coming back:
is this the bottom, should we be buying, or is the downside not finished yet?
To answer that properly, we need to step away from the short term and look at what’s happening on a yearly scale. Not to predict an exact low, but to understand the cycle dynamics.
That rebound is not a reversal.
It mainly reflects a pause in the equity correction, supported by a temporary return of confidence around AI, especially in semiconductors and Big Tech. Nvidia and other major players reassured markets on forward expectations, allowing a candle retracement on the Nasdaq.

But this move remains temporary. Macro uncertainty is still present, particularly around employment data and geopolitical tensions. Markets remain under pressure, and crypto mechanically amplifies these moves.

Bitcoin versus Nasdaq
The BTC/Nasdaq ratio is very telling.
It continues to decline, meaning the Nasdaq is outperforming Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is falling more sharply than equities. This is typical during stress phases.

What’s interesting is that Bitcoin has returned to key areas corresponding to the arrival of institutional flows in 2024, especially through spot Bitcoin ETFs. That naturally raises the bottom question.

Yes, there was a reaction around $60,000, with a rebound toward $68–70k.
But a reaction is not a bottom.

Yearly view: where things become clearer
When we zoom out to a yearly timeframe, several elements stand out clearly.

First, there is a significant imbalance left by the bull-run expansion candle. Historically, these areas are rarely left untouched. During contraction phases, price usually comes back to test a large portion, and sometimes the entirety, of those zones.

So far, Bitcoin has filled part of that area, but not all of it. The $60k level represents a logical first stop near the 0.5 retracement, but the typical working zones seen in previous cycles tend to sit between 0.5, 0.618, and sometimes 0.786.
In other words, the downside structure is probably not fully built yet.

Comparison with 2022

The current behavior strongly resembles what we experienced in 2022.
At that time, after a violent bearish impulse, the market had:
formed a deep wick,
retraced part of that wick,
then spent several weeks trading around long-term moving averages, especially the 200 EMA,
before moving lower again.

Today, we observe a very similar structure.
That doesn’t mean history will repeat exactly, but the emotional and structural dynamics are the same.

Possible next zones:
If the current dynamics continue, the following areas become technically coherent:

below $56,000,

then potentially toward $51,000–$46,000, which correspond to classic Fibonacci extensions.
A new Terra/Luna-type event is not required to reach those levels.
The massive liquidation on October 10, with more than $20 billion wiped out, already caused deep damage to overall market liquidity. Some market makers are simply gone, or will not return anytime soon.

That implies a more fragile, slower market, with confidence that needs to be rebuilt.

Bottom or not?
At this stage, no, we are probably not at a definitive bottom.

What we are experiencing looks more like a pause and construction phase, potentially followed by another bearish leg, or a long process of bearish accumulation with a slow bleed.

Time is the key factor.
Bottoms are not built in a few days, especially after liquidation excesses and in a hostile macro environment.

The signal to watch
One signal will be decisive going forward:
the moment Bitcoin stops overreacting to the Nasdaq.
When the BTC/Nasdaq ratio starts to turn, it will indicate that Bitcoin is regaining its own dynamics. This type of decoupling often marks important transition phases in the cycle.

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Fear still dominates.
The trend remains bearish.
The market needs time.

This is not about “missing the train,” but about letting structure form. Catching a falling knife is never a strategy.

Zooming out, understanding the cycle, managing exposure, and accepting that bottom formation is a slow process.
That is exactly what we are going through right now.
$BTC