PAMC WIMALASIRI

1. Overall Market Structure
🔻 Higher-Timeframe Bias

ETH is in a broader bearish-to-neutral structure

Strong sell-off from the 3,600–3,800 supply zone

Price is now consolidating after a corrective rise

➡️ This indicates distribution + consolidation, not a confirmed uptrend.

2. Current Price Context

Current price: ~2,940

ETH is:

Below major resistance zones

Trapped inside a small rising channel

Moving sideways with weak momentum

📌 This is a decision zone, not an aggressive buy zone.

3. Trendlines & Patterns
🔺 Rising Channel (Corrective)

ETH is forming a short-term rising channel

This channel formed after a sharp drop

Such structures are usually bearish continuation patterns

⚠️ Rising channels after a dump often break down, not up.

4. Key Support & Resistance Zones
🟥 Resistance Zones (Sell Pressure)

3,050 – 3,120

Immediate resistance

EMA & previous breakdown area

Strong rejection zone

3,250 – 3,350

Major supply zone

Prior distribution area

Ideal zone for short setups

3,600 – 3,800

Extreme HTF resistance

Origin of the major downtrend

🟩 Support Zones (Buy Reaction Areas)

2,850 – 2,900

Local demand

Channel support

2,700 – 2,750

Strong demand zone

Previous accumulation base

2,550 – 2,600

Last major bullish defense

High-probability bounce zone

5. EMA / Moving Average Insight

ETH price is below key EMAs

EMAs are acting as dynamic resistance

Each EMA test has resulted in selling pressure

➡️ Trend remains weak unless ETH reclaims 3,100+ with strength

6. Trade Scenarios (Most Important)
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)

Conditions:

Rejection from 3,050–3,120

Breakdown of rising channel support

Short Entry Ideas:

Entry: 3,050 – 3,100

Stop-loss: 3,180

Targets:

🎯 2,950

🎯 2,850

🎯 2,720

📉 Confluence:

Resistance zone

EMA rejection

Rising channel breakdown

🟢 Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability, Needs Confirmation)

Conditions:

Strong 4H candle close above 3,120

Successful retest holding as support

Long Entry Ideas:

Entry: 3,120 – 3,150 (retest)

Stop-loss: 3,020

Targets:

🎯 3,250

🎯 3,350

🎯 3,600 (only with strong volume)

⚠️ Avoid longs below resistance.

7. What ETH Is Doing Right Now

ETH is:

Compressing

Making lower volatility candles

Preparing for a directional move

📌 Expect:

Fake breakout first

Real move after liquidity grab

8. ETH vs BTC Context (Important)

BTC is also consolidating

ETH will likely follow BTC’s direction

If BTC breaks down → ETH downside accelerates

If BTC reclaims resistance → ETH relief rally possible$ETH
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1. Market Structure (Big Picture)
🔻 Higher-Timeframe Trend
BTC is still in a broader bearish-to-neutral structure
Price previously rejected strongly from the 108k–110k zone
A large impulsive drop occurred, followed by sideways consolidation
➡️ This means the market is not in a strong uptrend yet — it is in range / corrective phase

2. Current Price Context
Current price: ~87,800
Price is below major resistance and below higher EMAs
Market is compressing, indicating a possible breakout soon

3. Trendlines & Pattern
🔺 Rising Channel (Corrective)
Price is moving inside a rising channel
This is NOT a strong bullish channel, but a corrective structure after a dump
Such channels often break downward, not upward
⚠️ Important: Rising channels after a dump are bearish continuation patterns

4. Key Support & Resistance Zones
🟥 Major Resistance Zones
90,000 – 91,000
Strong horizontal resistance
Multiple rejections
EMA cluster area
94,000 – 96,000
Supply zone
Prior breakdown region
Ideal short-selling zone
102,000 – 104,500
Very strong HTF resistance
Origin of the last major sell-off
🟩 Major Support Zones
86,000 – 87,000 (Current support)
Short-term demand
Holding price for now
82,000 – 83,000
Strong demand zone
Previous accumulation area
Likely bounce area if breakdown occurs
78,000 – 80,000
Extreme support
Last bullish defense zone

5. EMA / Moving Average Insight
Price is below the 50 & 100 EMA
EMAs are acting as dynamic resistance
Every rally into EMA has been sold
➡️ Bias remains bearish unless price reclaims and holds above 91k

6. Trade Scenarios (Very Important)
🔴 Bearish Scenario (High Probability)

Condition:
Price fails to break above 90k–91k
Rejection from EMA or channel top
Short Entry Ideas:
Entry: 89,500 – 91,000
Stop-loss: 92,500
Targets:
🎯 87,000
🎯 84,000
🎯 82,000

📉 This aligns with:
EMA resistance
Rising channel rejection
Weak bullish momentum

🟢 Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability, Confirmation Needed)
Condition:
Strong 4H close above 91,000
Retest & hold as support
Long Entry Ideas:

Entry: 91,000 – 91,500 (retest)
Stop-loss: 89,800
Targets:
🎯 94,500
🎯 98,000
🎯 102,000 (only if momentum is strong)

⚠️ Avoid longing inside resistance — wait for confirmation.

7. What the Market Is Doing Now
BTC is consolidating
Volatility is compressing
This usually leads to:
❗ Sharp move
❗ Fake breakout first, real move later

8. Final Bias Summary
Aspect Bias
Trend Bearish → Neutral
Structure Corrective rising channel
Best Trades Shorts at resistance
Risk Zone Longs below 90k
Confirmation Needed 4H close above 91k
9. Simple Trading Plan (Clean)

✔️ Short at resistance
✔️ Long only after breakout + retest
❌ Don’t trade mid-range
❌ Don’t chase candles
$BTC

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