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Market Alert: High Volatility Risk Over the Next 24 Hours 🚨 Global markets are entering a sensitive window as two major U.S. developments are set to unfold within hours of each other. Together, they have the potential to rapidly reshape expectations around economic growth, recession risk, and future interest-rate policy. 1. U.S. Supreme Court Decision on Tariffs (10:00 am ET) The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs introduced during the Trump administration. Current market positioning suggests a strong probability that the Court may invalidate these measures. If the ruling goes against the tariffs, the U.S. government could face substantial refund obligations tied to more than $600 billion already collected. While alternative legal pathways exist for reintroducing tariffs, they are generally slower, less forceful, and carry greater uncertainty. From a market perspective, the key issue is confidence. Tariffs have been partially priced in as supportive to certain sectors. A negative ruling could trigger a repricing of risk, potentially weighing on equities and spilling over into risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies. 2. U.S. Unemployment Report (8:30 am ET) Shortly before the tariff decision, fresh labor market data will be released. Consensus expectations point to an unemployment rate of 4.5%, slightly lower than the previous reading. A higher-than-expected figure would reinforce recession concerns. A lower-than-expected figure could ease recession fears but further reduce expectations for near-term rate cuts. At present, the probability of a January rate cut is already low, near 11%. Strong employment data would likely remove any remaining optimism for an early policy pivot. Markets are facing a challenging setup: Weak data fuels recession anxiety. Strong data supports a “higher for longer” interest-rate outlook. With both events converging in a short timeframe, heightened volatility is likely. Traders and investors should remain cautious, closely manage risk, and be prepared for sharp market moves.

Market Alert: High Volatility Risk Over the Next 24 Hours 🚨
Global markets are entering a sensitive window as two major U.S. developments are set to unfold within hours of each other. Together, they have the potential to rapidly reshape expectations around economic growth, recession risk, and future interest-rate policy.
1. U.S. Supreme Court Decision on Tariffs (10:00 am ET)
The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs introduced during the Trump administration. Current market positioning suggests a strong probability that the Court may invalidate these measures.
If the ruling goes against the tariffs, the U.S. government could face substantial refund obligations tied to more than $600 billion already collected. While alternative legal pathways exist for reintroducing tariffs, they are generally slower, less forceful, and carry greater uncertainty.
From a market perspective, the key issue is confidence. Tariffs have been partially priced in as supportive to certain sectors. A negative ruling could trigger a repricing of risk, potentially weighing on equities and spilling over into risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies.
2. U.S. Unemployment Report (8:30 am ET)
Shortly before the tariff decision, fresh labor market data will be released. Consensus expectations point to an unemployment rate of 4.5%, slightly lower than the previous reading.
A higher-than-expected figure would reinforce recession concerns.
A lower-than-expected figure could ease recession fears but further reduce expectations for near-term rate cuts.
At present, the probability of a January rate cut is already low, near 11%. Strong employment data would likely remove any remaining optimism for an early policy pivot.
Markets are facing a challenging setup:
Weak data fuels recession anxiety.
Strong data supports a “higher for longer” interest-rate outlook.
With both events converging in a short timeframe, heightened volatility is likely. Traders and investors should remain cautious, closely manage risk, and be prepared for sharp market moves.

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Joane Derrick TKoR

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