BREAKING: $7.1 trillion worth of US stock and ETF options expire today, the largest triple-witching event ever.
Triple witching is a quarterly market event that happens four times a year, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
On this day, three types of derivatives expire at the same time:
Stock options, index options, index futures
Across the last 14 triple witching events, the S&P 500 averaged around -0.5% on the day.
Bitcoin has historically ranged between 6%-9% around triple witching periods, with sharp short term swings followed by stabilization once expiry pressure clears.
Expect volatility today as well.
It does not change long term trends, but it often creates short term noise and liquidity moves.
$BTC
$BTC
I believe this is the most important chart to be watching right now: USDT.D.
The PA closely resembles 2021. When we first tested major resistance back then, we ranged for several months before eventually breaking higher, during which BTC dropped from 45K to 24K.
Bear markets typically last around 300 days. We’re currently only about 70 days in. Given how fast price is moving, the bottom may come sooner than Q4 2026 rather than later.
With that in mind, as long as USDT.D remains below resistance, BTC can theoretically bounce. I’d be watching for a deviation above resistance followed by acceptance back into the range. That would be my long trigger.
Despite BTC looking weak, USDT.D is still at resistance until proven otherwise. If USDT.D breaks out to the upside, BTC likely moves toward 74K and 68K. These are my inevitable targets, though it would be surprising to reach that region without an extended consolidation first.
We’ll see how it plays out.