What Is the Likely Bottom of This Bitcoin Bear Market?
$BTC Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 last year and has been in a bear market ever since. If you still believe this is a bull market or are relying on a “super cycle” narrative, then this analysis probably isn’t for you.
At its core, this bear market revolves around two key questions:
How low can BTC go? and When will it bottom?
1. Declining Bear Market Drawdowns
$BTC Historically, every Bitcoin bear market has produced a smaller maximum drawdown than the previous one. The declines are converging rather than endlessl
y repeating the classic 70%+ crashes.
This cycle’s structure closely resembles 2021: a sharp initial drop followed by extended sideways movement at lower levels. The key difference is scale.
In 2021,
$BTC BTC dropped about 50%, consolidated, then fell again—eventually reaching a 75% total decline.
This cycle, BTC has fallen from $126,000 to $80,000, a drop of roughly 36%.
If this first leg represents only half of the full bear market, a second decline of similar magnitude would imply a total drop near 60%. That places a potential bottom around $50,000.
#BTC走势分析 #btc70k #BitcoinDunyamiz #bitcoin #BitcoinDunyamiz 2. Miner Shutdown Cost as a Price Floor
Another way to estimate the bottom is through mining shutdown costs.
Currently, the shutdown price for mainstream miners like the Antminer S21 is around $50,000.
Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have tended to bottom near or slightly above miner shutdown costs, as sustained prices below this level force miners offline and reduce selling pressure.
Final Outlook
From two completely different perspectives—historical drawdown patterns and mining economics—we arrive at nearly the same conclusion:
Likely bottom range: around $50,000
Probable timing: sometime in 2026
This suggests we are still in the middle phase of the bear market, not at the end. While the worst may not be far off, there is likely less than a year remaining before Bitcoin reaches its true cycle bottom.