COIN STACK

Akhir-akhir ini, pasar kripto terasa mengecewakan. Di grafik 4 jam, Bitcoin menunjukkan tanda-tanda bearish, dan berdasarkan data sebelumnya, ada kemungkinan tinggi bahwa ia akan bergerak turun untuk mengisi celah CME-nya sekitar 88.2k. Di atas itu, undang-undang struktur pasar kripto yang banyak dibicarakan, yang diyakini banyak orang akan membawa miliaran ke altcoin, telah ditunda lagi. Penundaan ini sudah merugikan sentimen, dengan saham Coinbase dan Robinhood turun sekitar 6–7%. Melihat kembali, juga mengecewakan bahwa alih-alih kemajuan nyata, judul besar setahun yang lalu adalah peluncuran koin meme seperti Trump dan Melania. Secara keseluruhan, pasar terasa terjebak dalam siklus hype, penundaan, dan frustrasi yang berulang.

Banyak orang memasuki kripto tanpa memahami perbedaan antara perdagangan spot dan perdagangan berjangka, dan kesalahan ini sering mengakibatkan kerugian besar. Keduanya adalah alat, tetapi ditujukan untuk jenis pengguna yang sangat berbeda.
Apa Itu Perdagangan Spot?
Perdagangan spot berarti Anda membeli aset kripto yang sebenarnya dan memilikinya. Jika Anda membeli Bitcoin di spot, itu tetap di dompet Anda sampai Anda menjualnya. Tidak ada masa kadaluarsa, tidak ada likuidasi, dan tidak ada tekanan untuk bertindak cepat.
Sebagai contoh, jika Anda membeli Bitcoin seharga $20.000 di spot, Anda dapat menyimpannya bahkan jika harganya turun menjadi $15.000 atau $10.000. Tidak ada yang memaksa Anda untuk menjual. Ini membuat perdagangan spot lebih aman dan lebih cocok untuk pemula dan investor jangka panjang.

Strategi Michael Saylor terdengar rumit, tetapi pada dasarnya justru sangat sederhana.
Pertama, MSTR mengumpulkan dana dengan menjual produk pendapatan tetap (seperti obligasi). Obligasi ini membayar investor imbal hasil tetap sekitar 11% per tahun. Sebagai contoh, jika MSTR mengumpulkan $1 miliar, mereka berjanji membayar sekitar $110 juta setiap tahun. Selama 10 tahun, total biaya bunga menjadi sekitar $1,1 miliar.
Sekarang datang bagian yang penting.
Alih-alih menyimpan uang itu menganggur, MSTR menggunakan $1 miliar untuk membeli Bitcoin.
Bitcoin tidak membayar bunga tetap, tetapi nilainya tumbuh seiring waktu. Bahkan jika kita mengasumsikan tingkat pertumbuhan yang konservatif sebesar 15% per tahun, $1 miliar Bitcoin dapat tumbuh secara signifikan karena bunga majemuk. Setelah 10 tahun, Bitcoin tersebut akan bernilai sekitar $4 miliar.

Tidak semua kripto akan mendapat manfaat dari apa yang terjadi selanjutnya. Pada 6 Oktober 2025, pasar kripto kehilangan hampir 1 triliun dolar AS, dengan sekitar 50 miliar dolar AS cair. Menurut Raoul Pal, bursa harus turun tangan dan membeli aset yang biasanya tidak mereka beli, dan kini posisi tersebut secara perlahan dijual. Ini adalah salah satu alasan mengapa pasar mengalami volatilitas tinggi. Data jangka panjang yang dibagikan oleh Benjamin Cowen juga menyoroti tren tahunan penting yang perlu diperhatikan.
Dari sudut pandang yang lebih luas, tidak semua koin diharapkan bergerak ke arah positif. Sayangnya, ketegangan geopolitik global sedang meningkat, yang menambah ketidakpastian di pasar. Kita melihat peningkatan keterlibatan dan tekanan dari Amerika Serikat di berbagai wilayah, termasuk Iran, Greenland, dan Kuba. Perkembangan ini tidak menguntungkan dan biasanya menciptakan rasa takut serta ketidakstabilan. Dalam masa-masa tidak pasti seperti ini, pasar biasanya melakukan salah satu dari dua hal: bergerak datar dan berkonsolidasi, atau bergerak turun. Karena alasan ini, sangat penting untuk mengidentifikasi level penting dan memahami ke mana Bitcoin bisa bergerak selanjutnya.

There is some important news for people interested in crypto. Former President Trump recently shared some statements that could strongly impact Bitcoin in 2026.
New unemployment data has been released and it is better than expected, meaning fewer people are without jobs. At the same time, inflation data shows prices are rising slowly and are likely below 2%. When unemployment goes down and inflation stays low, it shows the economy is strong and stable. This gives the central bank confidence that the economy is healthy. Because of these conditions, markets like Bitcoin can benefit, as investors expect more supportive economic policies ahead.
The economy looks healthy, which helped Bitcoin rise a little recently. However, there is still an open price gap near $88,200, so it's not very positive about Bitcoin in the short term and expects some weakness. In the long term, though, the situation is important because inflation and employment goals are already being met. Since the economy is stable, the central bank does not need to cut interest rates or print more money right now. Doing that could increase inflation again, which is a risk. Overall, short-term caution remains, but long-term conditions are changing in a meaningful way.
When banks are given more money, people borrow more and start spending, which allows businesses to raise prices and causes inflation. Because of this risk, the central bank prefers to keep things as they are instead of adding more money to the system. However, Trump has a different plan. He needs to refinance about $9.5 trillion in debt within a short time period, mostly between January and June. To do this, the government must issue new bonds, and this situation could push policymakers to change their approach to interest rates and liquidity.
With interest rates around 4%, the U.S. government has to pay hundreds of billions of dollars just in interest, which is a big waste of money. If rates were reduced closer to 1%, the savings would be huge and that money could be used for other important needs. Trump understands this problem and believes interest costs matter a lot. Because of this, he plans to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair soon. The leading choices are Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett, and both support lower interest rates and policies that make borrowing cheaper.
While the central bank focuses on its goals, the government still needs to reduce how much it pays in interest. The two possible new Federal Reserve leaders are supportive of crypto and lower interest rates. Trump is pushing his own form of money support by increasing military spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion. He said this extra cost would be covered by tariff income, but so far the money collected is much less than expected. There is also a chance that some of this tariff money may have to be returned if the courts rule the tariffs illegal. If that happens, the government may need to create hundreds of billions of dollars more, which could increase money supply and impact markets like crypto.
The extra money needed will likely be created by printing new money. Around $200 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities may be bought by institutions, which is a form of quantitative easing. This puts fresh cash into banks, increases available capital, and reduces financial stress, especially for smaller banks. If interest rates are also lowered under new leadership at the Federal Reserve, borrowing becomes cheaper. Together, more money in the system and lower rates mean higher liquidity, which can strongly impact markets like crypto.
The government is shifting toward a loose monetary policy that essentially forces "quantitative easing" on the economy. By printing money to fund major projects—like the proposed acquisition of Greenland—and implementing the 2025 tax cuts on tips and general income, the administration is bypassing traditional Federal Reserve controls. These massive liquidity injections, overseen by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are expected to create an inflationary "tailwind" starting in February. While this may cause a period of market consolidation rather than a severe crash, the full impact of this high-risk liquidity won't be truly visible until 2027.making this year a key time to accumulate.$BTC $BTC
#USNonFarmPayrollReport $BTC