🏛️ Current Status
- President Trump announced he will reveal his Fed chair pick this morning (January 30, 2026)
- The decision comes after a five-month selection process that began with 11 candidates
Leading Candidate: Kevin Warsh
- Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has emerged as the overwhelming favorite
- Prediction markets show: Kalshi gives Warsh 94-95% chance, up from 29% earlier this week
- Key developments: Warsh met with Trump at the White House on Thursday and reportedly accepted the position
Other Candidates
The final shortlist included:
- Kevin Warsh (former Fed Governor, 2006-2011)
- Rick Rieder (BlackRock's fixed income chief) - previously the favorite with 48% odds
- Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council director) - early frontrunner now at 1% odds
- Christopher Waller (current Fed Governor)
Market Implications
- Warsh is considered hawkish on interest rates, which may calm inflation concerns
- He has been critical of Powell's monetary policies during the Biden years
- Markets have been "gaming out scenarios for months" regarding this decision
Background Context
- Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026
- Trump almost picked Warsh in 2018 but chose Powell instead
- The selection process was led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
The announcement is expected to lift uncertainty that has hung over markets for months, providing clarity on future monetary policy direction.#WhoIsNextFedChair #MarketCorrection #predictionmarket
