Cryptocurrency and Financial Analyst

Yi Lihua's commentary focuses on the convergence of multiple macroeconomic and industry factors signaling that the cryptocurrency market is entering a new bull market phase, or a "supercycle." He identifies China, the U.S., and South Korea as critical markets currently benefiting from bullish stock trends that attract large capital inflows. Despite BTC's relatively stable yet modest rise and ETH's underperformance since previous highs, Yi points to the anticipating easing monetary policies (end of interest rate increases), global stablecoin adoption, and pro-crypto regulatory environments as catalysts for renewed crypto market growth. He also references prominent players such as Binance, Tether, and major investment funds actively increasing their crypto holdings, reinforcing confidence in this cycle.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment is currently a mix of cautious optimism and anticipation, driven by macroeconomic signals indicating a potential end to restrictive monetary policies and increasing institutional participation. The bullish stock markets in key regions foster investor confidence in risk assets, including crypto. Social media and community discourse reflect heightened interest in a "crypto supercycle," supported by influential figures like Binance CEO CZ. This growing optimism is balanced by some residual uncertainty due to past unmet blockchain expectations, evidenced by weaker ETH performance.
Past & Future Forecast
- Past: The 2017-2018 crypto bull cycle followed a period of rising mainstream interest and institutional entry, culminating in a sharp peak followed by a deep bear market. Similarly, the 2020-2021 cycle saw significant BTC gains fueled by macroeconomic stimulus and mainstream adoption.
- Future: Drawing on these precedents, the anticipated easing cycle combined with expanding stablecoin usage and regulatory clarity may drive a sustained supercycle, potentially surpassing previous market caps. Quantitatively, if BTC and ETH benefit from renewed capital inflows and adoption trends, positive price action exceeding past ATHs by 20-50% over a 12-24 month horizon might be expected.
The Effect
A coming supercycle would spur broader crypto ecosystem expansion, encouraging innovation, increased DeFi and NFT activity, and mainstream financial integration. However, risks include possible regulatory setbacks, technological hurdles, or macroeconomic shocks that could temper enthusiasm. Large capital inflows by institutional players may increase market volatility and systemic interdependencies.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Buy
- Rationale: The confluence of bullish macro signals, improving regulatory environments, and active institutional accumulation suggests a positive mid-term outlook. While uncertainty remains, timing appears favorable to enter positions with a balanced risk approach.
- Execution Strategy: Enter positions using short-term moving average indicators to identify support levels. Utilize phased buying during pullbacks to optimize entry prices alongside monitoring technical indicators like RSI and Bollinger Bands for oversold conditions.
- Risk Management: Implement stop-loss orders approximately 5-8% below entry points and set profit-taking targets near resistance or prior highs. Maintain diversification to mitigate sector-specific risks and monitor volatility closely.
- Successful investors on Wall Street emphasize disciplined entries aligned with macro trends and phased accumulation to manage risk exposure, which is well-suited here given the promising fundamentals and early bullish signs.#StrategyBTCPurchase #币安HODLer空投BREV #USNonFarmPayrollReport #DASH.智能策略库🥇🥇

Contenuto principale
L'articolo descrive una previsione effettuata dall'assistente di intelligenza artificiale Grok, in risposta a una domanda su quale asset—Bitcoin o oro—potrebbe peggiorare entro il 2026. Grok prevede un aumento sostanziale del Bitcoin, che potrebbe raddoppiare dai prezzi attuali raggiungendo da 165.000 a 169.000 dollari, grazie al comportamento di accumulo e ai cicli di mercato, mentre l'oro dovrebbe crescere moderatamente fino a 5.000 dollari prima di un possibile calo repentino a causa dell'aumento della volatilità derivante dal suo lungo rialzo. Questo scenario mette in discussione l'andamento dei prezzi recenti, in cui l'oro ha registrato un forte rialzo parabolico, salito del 120% dall'inizio del 2024 dopo una rottura tecnica a lungo termine.

Principal Content
The significant shift in global trade settlements among BRICS nations, with around 90% of inter-BRICS trade increasingly conducted in national currencies rather than the US dollar. Russia and China are at the forefront of this trend, using the ruble and yuan extensively, while India maintains a more conservative stance, emphasizing the dollar's role in global economic stability. New payment systems such as BRICS Pay and mBridge are essential infrastructural developments that support these currency settlements, bypassing traditional dollar-based international payment mechanisms. Despite this progress, geopolitical tensions, including threats of punitive tariffs from the US, complicate the de-dollarization process.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment around this news is mixed with elements of caution and strategic optimism. For investors focusing on cryptocurrencies and alternative assets, the growing move away from the dollar may herald shifts in global currency reserve preferences, potentially benefiting digital currencies tied to national currencies or ones facilitating cross-border payments. However, uncertainty remains due to geopolitical risks and the cautious approach of major BRICS players like India. Social media and market discussions likely reflect attention to the evolving payment infrastructure and geopolitical tensions, generating moderate anxiety about disruptive shifts versus optimism about diversification away from dollar dominance.
Past & Future Forecast
- Past: Similar geopolitical currency shifts occurred historically, such as the gradual decline of the British pound sterling as the world’s reserve currency post-World War II, replaced by the US dollar after the Bretton Woods Agreement. Past regional trade blocs have also experimented with local currency settlements, but none have yet displaced the dollar’s preeminence.
- Future: Continued expansion of local currency settlements and enhancement of alternative payment systems within BRICS could gradually erode dollar dominance in their trade settlements. Analysts may anticipate a gradual rise in BRICS currency trade share potentially moving closer to 50% or more in global trade settlements by mid to late decade. However, a complete replacement of the dollar as the global reserve currency appears unlikely in the near term, given India's conservative stance and the existing deep-rooted global use of the dollar.
The Effect
This evolving de-dollarization could have widespread ripple effects, including reducing US dollar demand in global trade, impacting dollar liquidity, and potentially pressuring the greenback’s value. It might encourage increased adoption of digital central bank currencies (CBDCs) and cross-border payment innovations. However, risks remain from potential trade wars, tariff escalations, and geopolitical frictions that could disrupt global trade flows. Additionally, gradual shifts away from dollar dominance may encourage diversification into gold and other assets, influencing commodity prices and broader financial markets.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Hold
- Rationale: The article outlines a strategic, long-term process of de-dollarization that currently presents gradual market changes rather than abrupt shocks. Institutional investors and hedge funds would likely adopt a cautious stance, maintaining positions but preparing for shifts in global currency dynamics.
- Execution Strategy: Maintain current portfolio allocations with periodic reviews of exposure to assets linked to BRICS economies, including local currency bonds, digital payment tokens, and commodities like gold. Use technical indicators to monitor evolving trends in related cryptocurrency prices and consider diversification into blockchain projects supporting alternative payment systems.
- Risk Management: Employ trailing stop orders to protect gains amid volatility from geopolitical risks. Diversify holdings to mitigate potential adverse impacts if tariff tensions escalate. Stay alert to macroeconomic indicators and political developments within BRICS and the US that could accelerate or delay de-dollarization.
- Quantitative metrics: Monitor usage metrics of BRICS Pay and mBridge platforms, settlement volumes in rubles and yuan, and shifts in global FX reserves as early indicators of momentum. Watch macro volatility indices, and correlate these with Nasdaq and S&P 500 trends for integrated market timing.
Maintaining a hold stance reflects prudent risk management amid nascent but significant changes to the international currency landscape, emphasizing readiness over overextension. #brics #dollar #binancealpha #btc

The imminent release of the U.S. December CPI data, a critical inflation indicator that influences monetary policy decisions. November's unexpected CPI decline had initially raised hopes of easier monetary policy, but recent employment figures have diminished the likelihood of a rate cut soon. Political developments involving President Trump introduce an additional layer of uncertainty, potentially affecting market sentiment.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment is currently marked by caution and heightened uncertainty. The concept of 'data traps'—where reported figures may be misleading or require careful interpretation—adds to anxiety among traders. The near elimination of rate cut expectations introduces concern over tighter monetary conditions. Political events contribute to unease, amplifying volatility. Social media discussions reflect a mix of anxious anticipation and guarded optimism.
Past & Future Forecast
- Past: In past instances, such as in early 2023, surprising CPI results have triggered volatile responses in both equity and crypto markets, often prompting quick reassessments of risk appetite. Market reactions have ranged from swift sell-offs to rebounds depending on follow-up data and statements from the Fed.
- Future: If December CPI shows an increase as expected, without clear signs of inflation easing, crypto and broader risk assets could face pressure due to sustained hawkish Fed expectations. Conversely, evidence of inflation stabilization might restore some investor confidence and risk appetite. Quantitatively, a CPI increase above consensus by 0.3-0.5% could trigger a 5-10% correction in risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The Effect
The CPI report will likely influence short-term market dynamics across asset classes. For cryptocurrencies, which often correlate with risk sentiment and monetary policy outlooks, the report could impact price volatility and trading volumes. Uncertainty about rate decisions and political developments could exacerbate fluctuations, leading to increased market risk. Investors should watch for cascading effects in correlated markets such as equities and forex, which may further affect crypto liquidity and sentiment.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Hold
- Rationale: Given the mixed signals from economic data and political uncertainty, maintaining current positions is prudent. This cautious stance allows investors to avoid premature moves amid potential volatility and misleading data.
- Execution Strategy: Monitor the CPI release closely, paying attention to market reaction and technical indicators like moving averages and RSI. Use trailing stops to protect gains and avoid entering new positions until clearer trends emerge.
- Risk Management Strategy: Implement tight stop-loss orders (5-8%) to limit downside exposure. Diversify across asset classes to mitigate sector-specific risks and remain alert to macroeconomic updates and political news that could shift market dynamics rapidly.
The news highlights the imminent release of the U.S. December CPI data, a critical inflation indicator that influences monetary policy decisions. November's unexpected CPI decline had initially raised hopes of easier monetary policy, but recent employment figures have diminished the likelihood of a rate cut soon. Political developments involving President Trump introduce an additional layer of uncertainty, potentially affecting market sentiment.
Market Psychology
Investor sentiment is currently marked by caution and heightened uncertainty. The concept of 'data traps'—where reported figures may be misleading or require careful interpretation—adds to anxiety among traders. The near elimination of rate cut expectations introduces concern over tighter monetary conditions. Political events contribute to unease, amplifying volatility. Social media discussions reflect a mix of anxious anticipation and guarded optimism.
Past & Future
- Past: In past instances, such as in early 2023, surprising CPI results have triggered volatile responses in both equity and crypto markets, often prompting quick reassessments of risk appetite. Market reactions have ranged from swift sell-offs to rebounds depending on follow-up data and statements from the Fed.
- Future: If December CPI shows an increase as expected, without clear signs of inflation easing, crypto and broader risk assets could face pressure due to sustained hawkish Fed expectations. Conversely, evidence of inflation stabilization might restore some investor confidence and risk appetite. Quantitatively, a CPI increase above consensus by 0.3-0.5% could trigger a 5-10% correction in risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Ripple Effect
The CPI report will likely influence short-term market dynamics across asset classes. For cryptocurrencies, which often correlate with risk sentiment and monetary policy outlooks, the report could impact price volatility and trading volumes. Uncertainty about rate decisions and political developments could exacerbate fluctuations, leading to increased market risk. Investors should watch for cascading effects in correlated markets such as equities and forex, which may further affect crypto liquidity and sentiment.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Hold
- Rationale: Given the mixed signals from economic data and political uncertainty, maintaining current positions is prudent. This cautious stance allows investors to avoid premature moves amid potential volatility and misleading data.
- Execution Strategy: Monitor the CPI release closely, paying attention to market reaction and technical indicators like moving averages and RSI. Use trailing stops to protect gains and avoid entering new positions until clearer trends emerge.
- Risk Management Strategy: Implement tight stop-loss orders (5-8%) to limit downside exposure. Diversify across asset classes to mitigate sector-specific risks and remain alert to macroeconomic updates and political news that could shift market dynamics rapidly.#cpi #USDemocraticPartyBlueVault #USNonFarmPayrollReport
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Monero (XMR) ha raggiunto un traguardo storico superando per la prima volta i 640 dollari, toccando un massimo intraday di 649 dollari. Nel corso dell'ultimo mese, la moneta ha guadagnato quasi il 54%, e un impressionante 225% dal gennaio 2025, rendendola una delle criptovalute con le migliori prestazioni in un mercato generalmente in calo dove Bitcoin ed Ethereum sono stagnanti. La crescita di Monero è legata a turbolenze interne a ZCash (ZEC), che hanno causato un fuggi-fuggi degli investitori da ZEC, probabilmente spingendo flussi di capitale verso XMR. L'impennata è inoltre alimentata dal FOMO, che incentiva l'acquisto speculativo.

The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act introduced by Senators Lummis and Wyden proposes to exempt non-custodial blockchain developers and infrastructure providers from being classified as money transmitters under federal law. The key focus is on developers who write software or maintain distributed ledgers but do not control user funds, thereby safeguarding them from stringent banking regulations and financial intermediary status. This legislation aims to resolve regulatory conflicts, encourage innovation within the US digital finance sector, and address legal uncertainties that have previously pushed innovation offshore. The bill also responds to recent high-profile prosecutions, notably of Tornado Cash and Samourai Wallet developers, where legal interpretations have blurred the lines between software maintenance and financial institution obligations.
Investor and developer sentiment within the crypto community is generally supportive of this bill as it promises regulatory clarity and protection from aggressive federal prosecution. The legal precedents set by the Tornado Cash and Samourai Wallet cases have caused anxiety and concern among developers and investors about the risks of engaging in privacy-focused blockchain technology. This bill could reduce uncertainty and fear of arbitrary enforcement, fostering optimism about a friendlier legal environment for innovation in decentralized technologies. Social media discourse has reflected this divide, with hopeful discussions regarding innovation growth contrasting with concerns about potential regulatory overreach.
-Past: Previously, blockchain developers faced intense regulatory scrutiny, especially post-2023, when cases like Tornado Cash (convicted in 2025) set a precedent making code maintainers liable under money transmission and Bank Secrecy Act provisions. These developments led to innovation migrating offshore due to unclear and harsh regulations.
-Future: If enacted, this bill could mark a turning point by formally protecting non-custodial developers, fostering an environment conducive to domestic crypto innovation and digital finance growth. Quantitatively, the legislation could reduce compliance costs and legal risks, encouraging more startups and infrastructure projects in the US blockchain space. However, the bill's passage and implementation timeline will heavily influence market reactions, with delays or opposition creating continued uncertainty.
This development is expected to positively impact the US crypto ecosystem by enabling developers to focus on software innovation without fear of being regulated as money transmitters. It could slow or reverse the exodus of blockchain talent and projects abroad, resulting in increased domestic investment and technological advancement. On the regulatory front, it may encourage harmonization between federal and state laws, reducing fragmented compliance burdens. However, the bill also introduces uncertainty about enforcement boundaries and does not directly address custodial entities, leaving some risks intact. The positive regulatory signals might lead to increased institutional interest in blockchain projects focused on infrastructure and privacy.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Buy
- Execution Strategy: Given the positive regulatory clarity this bill promises for non-custodial blockchain developers, investors should adopt a short- to mid-term accumulation approach targeting projects and infrastructure providers likely to benefit most. Use technical analysis tools such as the 20-day moving average and Bollinger Bands to time entries, with initial positions established near support levels and additional entries on pullbacks.
- Risk Management: Implement stop-loss orders 5-8% below your entry points to manage downside risk, considering the political and legislative dynamics that could delay or alter the bill. Maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and monitor regulatory developments closely to adjust positions if legislative progress stalls.
- Rationale: This bill signals meaningful regulatory progress protecting a fundamental segment of the blockchain ecosystem, reducing previously heavy compliance and legal risks for developers. Similar to how legislative clarity has historically spurred growth in regulated markets, this legal certainty can drive renewed investment and innovation in US-based non-custodial infrastructure projects.#StrategyBTCPurchase #zec #dash

#ShareYourThoughtOnBTC
The U.S. CFTC, led by Chairman Rostin Behnam, has created an Innovation Advisory Committee focused on emerging technologies like blockchain and AI. This advisory group replaces the prior Technology Advisory Committee and includes a blend of top crypto industry leaders, such as the co-founders of Gemini, Crypto.com, and Kraken, alongside prominent financial market executives from ICE, Cboe, and Nasdaq. The committee aims to provide the CFTC with expert advice on market operations, economic impacts, and regulatory considerations to facilitate clear and forward-looking policies in the evolving financial sector.
Market Sentiment
The announcement positively influences market sentiment by signaling enhanced regulatory engagement and collaboration between regulators and industry leaders. Investor optimism may increase because the involvement of well-respected crypto founders and traditional finance executives suggests balanced and informed policy-making. This can reduce regulatory uncertainty—a common source of market anxiety—thereby improving confidence. Social media and crypto community discussions likely reflect hope and cautious optimism about a more structured regulatory landscape that encourages innovation while managing risk.
Past & Future Forecast
- Past: Previous regulatory advisory committees, like the original CFTC Technology Advisory Committee, provided helpful frameworks but were often criticized for slower adaptation to crypto’s rapid evolution. The blending of crypto and traditional finance leaders parallels past initiatives such as the SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee, which aimed to balance innovation with investor protection.
- Future: Enhanced cooperation through this committee may lead to clearer regulatory guidelines, potentially accelerating adoption and institutional participation in crypto markets. Quantitatively, this could reduce volatility caused by regulatory uncertainty, with a possible increase in daily trading volumes by 5-15% as clearer rules promote market confidence within 6–12 months.
The Effect
The committee's work could create substantial ripple effects by harmonizing regulatory approaches across emerging financial technologies. This may encourage innovation while ensuring consumer protections and market integrity. However, risks remain if policies become too restrictive or slow-moving, which could stifle innovation or shift capital offshore. Positive regulatory clarity could also foster cross-market collaboration between traditional finance and crypto, increasing liquidity and mainstream adoption.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Buy
- Rationale: This development signals a constructive regulatory environment with proactive engagement by the CFTC, which has historically been a positive catalyst for crypto markets. The inclusion of reputable crypto and traditional finance leaders suggests balanced regulatory outcomes that support growth.
- Execution Strategy:
- Entry: Use short-term moving averages (20-day MA) and look for oversold conditions on RSI to enter positions gradually.
- Phased Entries: Build positions incrementally on dips near identified support levels.
- Profit Taking: Set profit targets near prior resistance or psychological price points.
- Risk Management:
- Apply stop-loss orders at 5-8% below entry prices.
- Maintain favorable risk-to-reward ratios of at least 1:2.
- Closely monitor regulatory news and technical indicators for early signs of reversals.
This strategy balances optimism from regulatory clarity with prudent risk controls, aligning with institutional best practices to capitalize on positive catalysts while limiting downside exposure.
#zec#xrp #chz #btc

US Senate Banking Committee prepares to finalize and submit the bipartisan CLARITY Act by mid-January, aiming for regulatory clarity around digital assets and market structure but facing prolonged debate over stablecoin revenue provisions and DeFi oversight. The full 278-page text has been released, removing some controversial stablecoin clauses, signaling compromise between DeFi advocates and traditional finance.
US Senators Ron Wyden and Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), seeking exemption of non-custodial blockchain developers from money transmitter laws to protect innovation and clarify legal responsibilities. Progress remains uncertain but garners crypto industry support.
Thailand intensifies anti-money laundering efforts targeting gold and digital assets to combat ‘grey money,’ enforcing stricter transaction reporting and Travel Rule compliance, reflecting growing global regulatory focus on transparency.
Senator Elizabeth Warren voiced concerns over the risks of integrating cryptocurrencies into pension and retirement funds, prompting scrutiny of regulatory frameworks and investor protections in these products.#StrategyBTCPurchase #ALPHA🔥 #USNonFarmPayrollReport #USDemocraticPartyBlueVault #btc走勢