MUHAMMAD 1 SAMI

The Fed just released new macro data, and it’s a lot worse than anyone was expecting.
We’re approaching a global market collapse, and most people have no idea it’s even happening.
This is extremely bearish for markets.
If you’re holding assets right now, you’re probably not going to like what’s coming next.
What we’re seeing isn’t normal.
A systemic funding problem is quietly building under the surface, and almost nobody is positioned for it.
The Fed is already scrambling.
Their balance sheet expanded by about $105B.
The Standing Repo Facility added $74.6B.
Mortgage-backed securities surged $43.1B.
Treasuries? Only $31.5B.
This isn’t bullish QE and money printing.
This is emergency liquidity becaue funding tightened and banks needed cash.
And they need it fast.
When the Fed is taking in more MBS than Treasuries, that’s a red flag.
It means collateral quality is slipping.
That only happens during stress.
Now zoom out to the bigger issue most people are ignoring.
U.S. national debt is at all-time highs.
Not just on paper - structurally.
Over $34T and climbing faster than GDP.
Interest costs are exploding and becoming one of the largest parts of the federal budget.
The U.S. is issuing new debt just to pay interest on old debt.
That’s a debt spiral.
At this point, Treasuries aren’t truly “risk-free.”
They’re a confidence trade.
And confidence is starting to crack.
Foreign demand is fading.
Domestic buyers are extremely price-sensitive.
Which means the Fed quietly becomes the buyer of last resort, whether they admit it or not.
That’s why funding stress matters so much right now.
You can’t sustain record debt when funding markets tighten.
You can’t run trillion-dollar deficits while collateral quality deteriorates.
And you definitely can’t keep pretending this is normal.
And this isn’t just a U.S. problem.
China is doing the same thing at the same time.
The PBoC injected over 1.02 trillion yuan in just one week via reverse repos.
Different country.
Same problem.
Too much debt.
Not enough trust.
A global system built on rolling liabilities no one actually wants to hold.
When both the U.S. and China are forced to inject liquidity at the same time, that’s not stimulus.
That’s the global financial plumbing starting to clog.
Markets always misread this phase.
People see liquidity injections and think “bullish.”
They’re wrong.
This isn’t about pumping prices.
It’s about keeping funding alive.
And when funding breaks, everything else becomes a trap.
The sequence never changes:
Bonds move first.
Funding markets show stress before stocks.
Equities ignore it - until they can’t.
Crypto takes the hardest hit.
Now look at the signal that actually matters.
Gold at all-time highs.
Silver at all-time highs.
This isn’t growth.
This isn’t inflation.
This is capital rejecting sovereign debt.
Money is leaving paper promises and moving into hard collateral.
That doesn’t happen in healthy systems.
We’ve seen this setup before:
→ 2000 before the dot-com crash
→ 2008 before the GFC
→ 2020 before the repo market froze
Every time, recession followed shortly after.
The Fed is boxed in.
Print aggressively and metals explode, signaling loss of control.
Don’t print, and funding markets seize while the debt load becomes impossible to service.
Risk assets can ignore reality for a while.
But never forever.
This isn’t a normal cycle.
This is a quiet balance-sheet, collateral, and sovereign debt crisis forming in real time.
By the time it’s obvious, most people will already be positioned wrong.
Position yourself accordingly if you want to make it through 2026.
I’ve been calling major tops and bottoms for over a decade.
When I make my next move, I’ll post it here first.
If you’re not following yet, you probably should - before it’s too late.