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$XRP Crypto analyst Diana, known on X as @InvestWithD, has drawn attention to recent on-chain data indicating a sharp decline in XRP balances held on centralized exchanges.
In her post, Diana stated that XRP exchange supply has fallen to multi-year lows, describing the development as a significant shift in holder behavior.
According to the data she referenced, market participants appear to be moving XRP off trading platforms and into self-custody wallets, a trend that historically reflects reduced immediate selling intent.
The chart attached to her post, sourced from Glassnode, compares the total XRP balance on exchanges with the asset’s price over time. The data shows a sustained downward trajectory in exchange-held XRP, even across multiple market cycles.
At the most recent data point, total XRP balances on exchanges were near levels not seen for several years, while price action has fluctuated within a defined range.
👉Self-Custody Trend and Market Interpretation
Diana emphasized that declining exchange balances typically indicate a tightening of the liquid supply. In her words, fewer coins available on exchanges translates into reduced sell pressure, as assets held in private wallets are less likely to be sold in the short term.
She suggested that this supply dynamic could become increasingly relevant if demand conditions shift, given that fewer XRP tokens are immediately accessible for spot selling.
Her post captures the development as a structural change rather than a short-term anomaly. The implication presented was that long-term holders may be positioning themselves for future market developments by prioritizing self-custody over exchange storage, a behavior often associated with increased conviction.
👉Community Pushback on Escrow and Price Action
Not all responses to Diana’s analysis were aligned with her conclusion. One X user, identified as QuestionableCharacter, challenged the notion of supply tightening, pointing to the ongoing monthly escrow unlocks.
The user argued that with approximately one billion XRP released from escrow each month, claims of a supply shortage are overstated until the escrow mechanism is fully exhausted.
Another commenter, Swizzled Out Trends, focused on market performance rather than supply metrics. The user noted that despite the decline in exchange balances, the price of XRP has also experienced downward pressure, questioning the immediate bullish relevance of the on-chain data presented.
👉Balancing On-Chain Metrics and Market Realities
Diana’s post highlights a recurring debate within the digital asset space: whether on-chain supply indicators should be weighed more heavily than visible price trends and known issuance mechanisms. While the data clearly shows a contraction in exchange-held XRP, critics argue that broader supply factors and current market sentiment cannot be ignored.
The exchange balance metric, as presented, does not account for all circulating dynamics, but it does offer insight into how holders are choosing to store their assets. As XRP continues to trade amid fluctuating market conditions, the interaction between escrow releases, holder behavior, and liquidity on exchanges remains a focal point for analysts assessing potential future price movements.
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