Polymarket bettors have boosted the odds that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 in February to about 61%, reflecting a renewed—but measured—confidence after last week’s sharp pullback. What changed - The Polymarket contract is pricing a roughly 61% probability for a February $75,000 print, up about 8 percentage points from recent lows. Trading has been active, with tens of millions of dollars in volume on the contract, suggesting the odds are reacting to real flows rather than thin liquidity. (Source: Polymarket) - The rise in prediction-market probability follows a volatile stretch in which Bitcoin briefly slid into the high-$60,000s before stabilizing around $70,000–$71,000. Why this matters—and why caution remains - A 61% probability signals that the $75,000 outcome is favored by bettors, but it still means nearly 40% of the market isn’t convinced it will happen this month. The move higher in odds looks like a reassessment of upside risk after the sell-off, not a decisive regime change. - Spot technicals remain fragile. Bitcoin is trading below key moving averages and the longer-term trend still slopes downward after the January breakdown. (Source: TradingView) - Volume dynamics point to a liquidation-driven decline: volume surged during the sell-off and eased during the rebound—an intraday pattern more consistent with forced selling than renewed accumulation. Some dip buying has appeared, but there’s limited evidence of sustained follow-through. Derivatives underscore the caution - Coinglass data show the long/short ratio remains skewed toward shorts, with aggressive sell taker orders dominating during and after the drop. There has been no sustained rush into long, leveraged positions alongside the spot rebound. (Source: Coinglass) - That suggests traders are hesitant to add leverage and are waiting for clearer confirmation from price action. Bottom line Prediction markets are flashing renewed optimism about February upside, but both spot market structure and derivatives positioning remain cautious. For now, Bitcoin appears to be in a stabilization phase: sentiment has recovered faster than conviction in leveraged markets. Disclaimer: AMBCrypto's content is informational and should not be considered investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies is high risk; readers should do their own research before making decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

#BTC #ETF