Headline: Futures data suggests last week’s bitcoin plunge may not have been a true capitulation, derivatives expert warns Bitcoin’s dramatic one-day drop last week — falling more than 10% from roughly $69,077.60 to about $60,000 before rebounding toward $70,000 — raised the perennial market question: did we just see capitulation, the panic-selling that typically extinguishes bearish pressure and clears the way for a fresh bull run? Amberdata’s director of derivatives, Greg Magadini, doesn’t think so. In a market note Monday he flagged that the futures market’s behavior lacks the hallmark “reaction” you’d expect in a true capitulation, leaving room for another leg down. Why futures matter Futures are standardized contracts to buy or sell an asset like bitcoin at a set price on a future date. The price gap between futures and spot — known as the basis — is closely watched because it reveals trader sentiment and positioning. A significant futures premium to spot signals bullish optimism; a discount signals bearish pressure. Historically, deep discounts in both standard and perpetual futures on major exchanges have coincided with the final flushes of previous bitcoin bear markets. What the numbers show Magadini points out that while the 90-day basis for BTC did move lower on each decline, those moves were shallow — barely reaching -100 basis points. Today the fixed basis sits around 4% for BTC, roughly in line with risk-free Treasury yields, rather than showing the steep discounts that have historically signaled capitulation. By contrast, at the end of the 2022 bear market the 90-day futures traded at about a 9% discount as the bitcoin price bottomed below $20,000 — a far deeper divergence than what we’ve seen recently. If history is any guide, the market may still have room for a more pronounced capitulation in futures, which would likely push spot prices materially lower before a durable bottom forms. Market snapshot Bitcoin was trading near $69,000, down about 1% since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk data. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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