Quantum computing has become a loud talking point in Bitcoin circles — but don’t expect it to drive prices next year, according to Grayscale. In its updated 2026 Digital Asset Outlook, “Dawn of the Institutional Era” (updated Dec. 15), Grayscale puts quantum risk on the research and preparedness lists, not on the roster of 2026 market-moving themes. The firm’s bottom line: while a powerful quantum computer could theoretically derive private keys from public keys and threaten Bitcoin’s cryptography, that scenario is unlikely to arrive in time to affect prices in 2026. Grayscale cites expert estimates that a machine capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography is “unlikely before 2030 at the earliest.” That timing matters. The quantum debate has bubbled up at a moment when markets are already hunting for new failure modes — from claims that the four-year cycle is dead to worries about large holders unloading supply. Grayscale’s take is simpler: quantum is real and needs attention, but it’s a medium-term problem that will drive research, community coordination, and mitigation planning rather than an immediate repricing event. The firm labels quantum “high attention, low near-term impact,” predicting increased research and preparedness in 2026 but not a quantum-driven market discount. Grayscale places quantum alongside other heavily discussed narratives that may not alter returns on a one-year horizon (for example, the digital-asset-treasury wave that followed high-profile corporate buyers in 2025). Instead, the report’s central thesis is that 2026 will deepen structural changes in ownership and allocation — an era of institutional adoption. Key takeaways from Grayscale’s outlook: - Institutional flows and allocation processes (spot ETPs, portfolio buys) will likely matter more than classic halving-driven cycles. - Macro forces — rates, regulation, and improved ETP infrastructure — are the likely near-term price drivers. - Grayscale expects Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high in the first half of 2026. - The report highlights predictable issuance as a supportive factor: the 20 millionth bitcoin is forecasted to be mined in March 2026, a verifiable milestone that underpins the protocol’s rule-based supply schedule. In short, Grayscale doesn’t dismiss quantum risk — it puts it on the roadmap — but argues the clock for a crypto-shattering quantum event doesn’t align with the 2026 trading horizon. For next year, look for institutional demand, regulatory clarity, ETP plumbing, and macro economics to shape BTC’s path. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,184. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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