Headline: Glassnode: Bitcoin’s early‑2026 pop runs into a familiar wall — heavy long‑term holder supply from $93K–$110K Bitcoin’s bounce into the mid‑$90k range has run straight into a dense pocket of overhead supply that has capped rallies since November, according to Glassnode’s latest Week On‑chain report. While the move above $96,000 looks constructive on the surface, the analytics firm warns the advance remains largely driven by derivatives positioning and thin liquidity rather than sustained spot accumulation. What Glassnode finds - A concentrated band of long‑term holder (LTH) cost basis sits roughly between $93K and $110K—built during April–July 2025—and has repeatedly acted as a “transition barrier” that separates corrective action from durable bull regimes. The market is now “facing a familiar test of resilience,” Glassnode says: clearing this overhead supply requires genuine absorption of LTH distribution, not just price probing. - The short‑term holder (STH) cost basis at $98.3K is flagged as a confidence checkpoint for newer buyers. Durable trading above that level would suggest recent demand is strong enough to keep late entrants profitable while soaking up overhead supply. - On‑chain flows show LTHs remain net sellers and total LTH supply is trending lower, but the pace of distribution has “slowed materially” compared with the heavy selling in Q3–Q4 2025. Net Realized Profit & Loss for LTHs is down to roughly 12.8K BTC/week in net profit—far softer than cycle peaks above 100K BTC/week—indicating profit‑taking has moderated but not disappeared. Off‑chain and venue signals - Institutional balance‑sheet flows have “gone through a full reset” after months of outflows: spot ETFs are the first cohort to turn positive again and now represent the primary marginal buyer. Corporate and sovereign treasury flows remain sporadic and event‑driven rather than steady. - Exchange flow metrics are improving: Binance and aggregate exchange flows have shifted into buy‑dominant regimes, and Coinbase—previously a persistent source of selling—has “meaningfully slowed” its outflows. Glassnode calls this structural improvement constructive but not yet the kind of persistent accumulation that fuels full trend expansions. Risks from thin liquidity and derivatives - The rally into the ~$96K region was “mechanically reinforced” by short liquidations in a comparatively thin liquidity environment. Futures turnover remains well below 2025 highs, meaning it took relatively little capital to squeeze shorts and lift price through resistance. - Options data add caution: implied volatility is low but “deferred,” while skew favors downside protection (25‑delta skew biased toward puts at mid and longer maturities). Participants appear willing to hold exposure only with insurance. - Microstructure positioning is also noteworthy: dealers are short gamma around spot, particularly between $94K and $104K. That hedging profile can amplify price moves—buying into rallies and selling into dips—potentially accelerating momentum toward key strikes such as $100K if momentum builds. Key conditional levels and what to watch - True Market Mean (TMM) sits near ~$81K. Glassnode states that a sustained loss of the TMM would materially increase the risk of a deeper capitulation, similar to April 2022–April 2023. - Short‑term confidence gauge: sustained trading above the STH cost basis at $98.3K would signal stronger demand from newer buyers. - Market continuation depends on whether genuine spot demand and higher volumes can replace the forced covering that pushed price higher in thin conditions. Watch futures turnover, ETF flows, and whether long‑term holders’ selling continues to decelerate. At the time of the report, BTC traded around $96,334. Glassnode’s central message: the market has cleared the same sell ceiling again, but turning that breakthrough into a lasting bull regime will require real absorption of long‑term holder supply—not just squeezes and thin‑market mechanics. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

#BTC #ETF