kkdemian

Relatório de Pesquisa Aprofundada do Projeto Sentient: Oportunidades e Riscos da Inovação Colaborativa AI‑Web3
Resumo
$SENT
Sentient representa uma tentativa credível de construir uma pilha de protocolo de IA nativa do Web3, combinando pesquisa de IA de código aberto sofisticada com coordenação de incentivos baseada em blockchain. Com $85M em financiamento inicial de VCs de cripto de nível 1, uma rede GRID de parceiros com mais de 110, e capacidades de raciocínio de última geração (ROMA: 45,6% de precisão SEAL-0), o projeto demonstra capacidade de execução técnica. No entanto, a ambiciosa FDV pré-mercado de $1,15B, fornecimento de 34B de tokens, e modelo econômico não comprovado apresentam riscos materiais de avaliação e execução. O posicionamento estratégico como uma camada de coordenação para AGI aberta mostra diferenciação em relação a laboratórios fechados e jogos puramente DePIN, mas o sucesso depende da adoção pós-TGE, escalonamento do GRID e maturação da governança ao longo de 24-36 meses.

1. Resumo Executivo
Este relatório visa utilizar uma estrutura analítica de seis dimensões para projetar as principais tendências estruturais no mercado de criptomoedas em 2026. Esta estrutura integra o ambiente macro-monetário, a estrutura de capital on-chain, ciclos narrativos, marcos regulatórios, evolução de protocolos tecnológicos e microestrutura de mercado. Abandonamos previsões de ponto único e exploramos possíveis caminhos de mercado sob diferentes combinações de variáveis através de três cenários: cenário base, risco e cenário extremo.

Author: [kkdemian]
Date: December 2025
Read Time: Approx. 15 Minutes
Abstract: If 2024 was the year of recovery and 2025 the year of validation, then 2026 will mark the watershed moment where the crypto market transitions from a "speculative casino" to a global financial "main artery."
Core Thesis: The Main Arteries for the Next Liquidity Expansion
Before diving into specific predictions, we must address a central question: Amidst the incoming liquidity expansion of 2026, which vehicles will serve as the primary conduits for institutional capital and genuine demand?
The Sassano, SWF、Vanguard, BlackRock, ARKK and so on Logic: A Structural Bet
For Ethereum permabulls, the logic of betting on ETH and its L2 ecosystem will become irrefutable in 2026. We define the asset stratification framework as follows:
BTC = Digital Gold (Store of Value)Absorbs "anti-inflationary" and "safe-haven" capital.Characteristics: Massive liquidity, but low velocity.Status: Has attracted over $175 billion in institutional funds via ETFs as of 2025.ETH = Digital Bond & Settlement Network (Value Transmission)Institutional capital seeks not just safety, but Yield (Staking) and Settlement utility.Core Logic: The explosion of high-frequency Web3 interactions in 2026 can only be supported by the ETH Settlement Layer + L2 Execution Layers.Status: ETH staking exceeds 34 million tokens, with APY stabilized at 3-5%.
Market Validation Data (2025 Baseline):
L2 TVL: Surpassed $39 billion (+37% YoY).L2 Activity: Daily transactions hit 1.9 million, representing 60% of the total Ethereum ecosystem volume.Adoption: Base (Coinbase L2) exceeded 3.2 million monthly active users.Tokenized RWA has reached: $36.1BPerp DEX monthly trading volume surpassed $1.2 trillion(11-30-2025)
The 12 Core Predictions for 2026
1. Web3 User Stratification: From "Natives" to "Premium Trad-Users"
Trend Analysis: 2026 marks the death of the "browser extension wallet" era. The ubiquity of Account Abstraction (AA) and Passkeys will revolutionize UX.
Key Forecast:Users won't need to understand "decentralization"; they will arrive solely for more efficient financial services (PayFi).Mobile UX will rival Web2 apps; PayPal and Robinhood will become the largest Web3 on-ramps.Validation: Non-crypto-native users will exceed 70%, with monthly active wallets breaking 200 million.
2. DeFi 3.0: Synthetic Yields & RWA Settlement
Trend Analysis: Purely inflationary yield farming will die out. Big capital will focus exclusively on RWAs (Real World Assets) and On-Chain Real Yield.
The Synthetic Index Revolution: The market will flood with "Synthetic Yield Tokens" (e.g., a bundle of 40% Treasury RWA + 30% Aave Lending + 30% ETH Staking).Institutional Moves: BlackRock's BUIDL fund grows from $615M to $1.87B in one year; Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon issue tokenized MMFs.Key Forecast: RWA protocol yields stabilize at 5-8% APY; regulatory arbitrage vanishes as compliance becomes the barrier to entry.
3. Dissolving Asset Boundaries: On-Chain Equities & 24/7 Trading
Trend Analysis: Traditional US equities will accelerate onto the blockchain via tokenization, realizing a global financial market that never sleeps.
Scenario: An investor in Tokyo buys tokenized "Apple Stock" at 2:00 AM Saturday and immediately collateralizes it on Aave to borrow USDC for cross-asset arbitrage.Key Forecast: Tokenized securities market cap breaks $100 billion; T+0 instant settlement becomes the standard, dismantling the moats of traditional brokerages.
4. Info-Fi Rising: Prediction as Hedging
Trend Analysis: Prediction markets will evolve from isolated islands into "forward-looking indicators" for broader financial markets.
New Asset Class: "Event Hedging Instruments." When a user buys Nvidia stock, the interface automatically recommends a Polymarket token betting on "Earnings Miss" as a hedge.Key Forecast: Info-Fi market cap exceeds $50 billion; "Prediction + Hedging" becomes a standard investment strategy.
5. Tokenomics Awakening: Buybacks as Religion
Trend Analysis: Pure "Governance Tokens" (voting rights only) will be abandoned. Valuation logic will shift from TVL to P/E (Price-to-Earnings).
New ICO Model: Mandatory binding of "Protocol Revenue Buyback/Burn" or "Real Dividends." Projects without positive cash flow will fail to launch.Key Forecast: The Meme coin bubble bursts; traditional financial analysis frameworks are fully applied to token valuation.
6. The Agentic Maturity: AI Monopolies & M2M Economy
Trend Analysis: Humans will use Agents for efficiency; Agents will form a Machine-to-Machine (M2M) economy among themselves.
AI Monopolies: Prediction market data processing, on-chain MEV capture, and dynamic AMM parameter adjustments.Currency: Agents won't use bank accounts; they will exclusively use Stablecoins (Payment) and ETH (Gas).Key Forecast: By 2026, 60% of on-chain transaction volume will be initiated by AI Agents; humans will completely exit high-frequency trading.
7. The Privacy Renaissance: From "Laundering Tools" to "Commercial Compliance"
Trend Analysis: Privacy will become a prerequisite for enterprise adoption. Corporations will utilize ZK tech for "Data Invisibility with Trusted Verification."
Tech Stack: Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP), Homomorphic Encryption, Multi-Party Computation (MPC).Key Forecast: Without a privacy layer, corporate capital cannot move on-chain at scale. Compliant privacy solutions (e.g., Paxos partnerships with Aleo) will gain mainstream acceptance.
8. Quantum Computing & The DeSci Narrative
Trend Analysis: Quantum computing may hit a technological singularity in 2026; "Quantum-Resistance" will become a mainstream narrative for the first time.
DeSci (Decentralized Science): Using blockchain to solve research funding, data ownership, and result sharing.Key Forecast: Ethereum advances its "Lean Ethereum" anti-quantum upgrades; DeSci project funding breaks $1 billion.
9. Market Structure Flip: Perp DEX Swallows CEX Share
Trend Analysis: With zkEVM and high-performance L2 maturity, on-chain derivatives will offer UX comparable to CEXs, but with transparent liquidation and self-custody.
The Decline of CEX: Centralized exchanges will devolve into mere fiat on/off ramps and beginner platforms.Key Forecast: On-chain derivatives volume captures >40% market share; protocols like Hyperliquid and dYdX normalize daily volumes exceeding $5 billion.
10. The ETH Scaling Endgame: zkEVM as the Primary Growth Channel
Trend Analysis: Ethereum Mainnet retreats to the background, serving strictly as the "Security & Settlement Layer."
Value Flow: Users pay negligible Gas on L2 → L2 pays Data Availability fees (ETH) to Mainnet → ETH is burned via EIP-1559.Key Forecast: L2 daily transactions break 5 million; ETH supply turns deflationary via burn mechanisms.
11. Institutionalization of Prediction Markets
Trend Analysis: Prediction markets complete the shift from "fringe casinos" to "mainstream financial tools."
Three Scenarios: Macro Hedging (Institutional), Enterprise Risk Management (Supply Chain/Policy), Information Aggregation (Bloomberg Terminal integration).Key Forecast: Global prediction market volume breaks $100 billion; Asia (Singapore, Hong Kong) leads in issuing licenses.
12. The New ICO Paradigm: Futarchy + Community Raises
Trend Analysis: 2026 will witness the birth of "ICO 2.0"—a fusion of market governance (Futarchy) and community fundraising.
The MetaDAO Model: Trading replaces voting (Futarchy) to prevent governance attacks.The Echo/Coinbase Model: Community Pools lower individual risk; on-chain transparency eliminates the "VC Discount" privilege.Key Forecast: Total fundraising via these new models breaks $20 billion; Futarchy becomes the standard configuration for DAO governance.
Conclusion: The Dialectic Return of "Fat Applications"
In 2016, the "Fat Protocol" thesis argued that value would accrue to the underlying layer. In 2026, we will see a dialectical return of this theory.
Value will still settle at the bottom (ETH), but the switch that triggers value capture will be firmly in the hands of the Application Layer: it is the AI Agent's payment request burning Gas, the RWA Platform contributing TVL, and the Prediction Market generating data.
We are bidding farewell to the "Wild West" era of vaporware and entering a mature financial epoch defined by "Closed-Loop Logic and Real Value Settlement." For everyone involved, 2026 is not just an opportunity for asset appreciation, but a leap in cognitive understanding.
Do not just be a Holder; be a User. In the next decade of Web3, the greatest dividends will belong to those who actually understand and utilize this infrastructure.
"The best time to buy ETH was at $10. The second best time is right before the liquidity flood of 2026."

Da periferia ao mainstream: O crescimento explosivo do mercado de previsões em 2025
Em 2025, um experimento financeiro uma vez considerado "jogo marginal" está se tornando o setor mais quente da indústria cripto. A plataforma de mercado de previsões Polymarket acumulou um volume de negociação de mais de $36 bilhões em apenas dois anos, com sua avaliação disparando de zero para $12-15 bilhões. Seu concorrente, Kalshi, mais que dobrou sua avaliação em apenas algumas semanas, saltando de $5 bilhões para $11 bilhões, com uma rodada de financiamento de $1 bilhão co-liderada pela Sequoia Capital e CapitalG.

Resumo
O setor de mercado de previsões alcançou $44B em volume de negociações durante 2025, representando uma mudança estrutural da curiosidade acadêmica para a infraestrutura financeira mainstream. Dois modelos dominantes emergem: bolsas centralizadas regulamentadas pela CFTC (Kalshi: $17.1B de volume, $1B de financiamento) e protocolos descentralizados nativos de cripto (Polymarket: $21.5B de volume, $2.279B de financiamento). Principais descobertas: (1) modelos sem token demonstram tração de mercado superior em comparação com alternativas tokenizadas, (2) mecanismos de livro de ordens dominam apesar dos primeiros designs de LMSR AMM, (3) arbitragem regulatória permite crescimento, mas cria risco de fragmentação, (4) agregação de informações supera pesquisas tradicionais em mercados de alta liquidez, mas falha durante manipulação ou participação baixa. O setor enfrenta dinâmicas de vencedor-leva-maior, favorecendo a concentração de liquidez, com 73% do TVL de DeFi ($423M no total) concentrado apenas no Polymarket.

$ZAMA Relatório de Pesquisa de Infraestrutura de Criptografia
Resumo
Zama é uma empresa de infraestrutura de criptografia avaliada em mais de $1B, pioneira em Criptografia Totalmente Homomórfica (FHE) para computação confidencial em blockchain. Com o mainnet lançado em 30 de dezembro de 2025 na Ethereum, mais de $130M em financiamento total e mais de 5.000 desenvolvedores (70% de participação de mercado de FHE), Zama representa a pilha FHE mais avançada e pronta para produção para contratos inteligentes confidenciais. O modelo de token de queima e mintagem, a abordagem de camada de confidencialidade entre cadeias e o roteiro de aceleração de hardware (20 TPS atuais → mais de 10.000 TPS até 2027-2029) posicionam Zama como infraestrutura fundamental para DeFi institucional, RWAs e aplicações de privacidade em conformidade regulatória.

随着预测市场赛道的爆发，我们在这一领域看到了更多有趣的变体。Cue 是近期备受关注的一个基于 Solana 的新型平台，它将自己定义为“意见市场”（Opinion Market）。
与专注于客观事实（如“谁将赢得选举”或“比特币价格是否会突破 10 万”）的 Polymarket 或 Opinion 不同，Cue 并不追求绝对的真理。在这里，“正确”的定义取决于共识和资金的流向。
1. 核心差异：什么是“意见市场”？
在传统的预测市场中，结果由预言机（Oracle）或裁判根据客观事实来裁决。但在 Cue 上：
没有客观的“错误”答案：结果不依赖外部新闻源验证。资金决定胜负：所谓的“正确答案”，是指在市场设定的时间结束前，哪一方吸引了更多的资金承诺。社交信号博弈：这不仅仅是预测未来，更是一场关于“大众会相信什么”的社交信号收集游戏。
2. 运作机制：时间就是金钱
Cue 的核心机制设计非常独特，它奖励早期参与者并简化了结算流程。
早期入场优势（Early Mover Advantage）
Cue 采用了一种类似联合曲线（Bonding Curve）的机制。
早期玩家：可以用同样的资金获得更多的市场份额。后期玩家：随着资金池的增长，同样的投入获得的份额会逐渐减少。
这意味着，即使你是“巨鲸”拥有巨额资金，如果在后期入场，也无法轻易垄断市场。尽早选定立场并坚定持有，才是获胜的关键。

无需裁判的自动结算
当一个 Cue 市场到期结算时，获胜方将根据持有的份额瓜分奖池。
案例：用户 A 和用户 B 虽然下注金额相同，但如果用户 A 下注时间更早，他获得的份额更多，最终分得的奖金也会显著高于用户 B。去中心化：整个过程不需要任何人工裁判或预言机介入，完全由智能合约根据资金权重自动执行。

3. 新手入门指南
如果您想体验这个实验性的社交预测游戏，以下是详细的操作步骤：
第一步：注册与登录
访问 cue.fun/app/markets。点击“登录”（Login）按钮。Cue 集成了 Privy 门户，您只需输入电子邮件地址即可创建一个嵌入式钱包，无需预先安装复杂的浏览器插件钱包。邀请码: N5LE9IA7
第二步：资金充值
登录后，点击右上角的钱包余额标签：
充值币种：Solana 链上的 USDC。充值方式：使用银行卡购买：适合法币用户直接入金。从钱包转账：如果您已有 Solana 钱包（如 Phantom），可以直接转入 USDC。
第三步：浏览市场
在“市场”（Markets）主页，您可以查看“热门”（Trending）或“关注”（Following）的类别。Cue 的市场话题通常集中在流行文化、娱乐等主观领域。

点击感兴趣的市场卡片，进入专属控制面板。
第四步：下注与预测
在市场详情页中：
选择立场：点击图片选择“是”（Yes）或“否”（No）。设定金额：选择预设金额（如 $1, $5）或输入自定义金额。查看回报：向下滚动，系统会显示若获胜您将获得的预估利润以及 Cue XP（平台经验值）。确认交易：点击“下注”（Bet）按钮并签署交易。

第五步：追踪仓位
下注完成后，您可以在该市场的仪表盘上追踪动态。如果参与了多个市场，建议进入 “我的个人资料”（My Profile） 选项卡，那里可以一目了然地追踪所有持仓的表现。
4. 进阶玩法：成为市场创建者
除了下注，您还可以创建自己的市场，从社交热点中获利。
如何创建：点击首页的“创建市场”（Create Market）按钮。所需信息：输入市场问题、描述、类型（文字或图片）、持续时间和上传封面图片。创建者收益：这是 Cue 的一大亮点——创作者可以从其市场上的任何投注中获得 3% 的收益。这意味着您的市场话题越具有争议性或传播性，您的被动收入就越高。
5. 风险提示与平台限制
Cue 目前仍处于实验阶段，用户需注意以下几点：
市场类型限制：Cue 明确表示仅用于观点交易。不提供具体的价格预测、政治结果或体育赛事结果。如果您在寻找“BTC 年底价格”之类的市场，这里找不到。流动性风险：作为一个较新的小规模平台，部分市场可能面临流动性不足的问题。波动性：由于没有客观锚定，市场情绪可能瞬间逆转，导致份额价值剧烈波动。不保证退款：链上交易不可逆，需自行承担风险。
6. 策略建议
要在 Cue 上获利，思维方式需要从“寻找真理”转变为“寻找共识趋势”：
快进快出：利用早期入场的高份额优势。如果您发现一个刚刚建立但极具病毒传播潜力的话题，立即介入往往比深思熟虑后晚期介入更划算。关注社交热度：Cue 是意见市场，关注 Twitter（X）或社区中的热门争论话题，这些往往是 Cue 上交易量最大的来源。赚取 XP：除了直接的金钱收益，下注还能赚取 Cue XP。在许多 Web3 项目中，早期积分往往与未来的空投奖励挂钩（尽管官方暂未承诺）。
7. 市场对比：Cue vs. OMEN vs. Polymarket
特性CueOMEN (Gnosis)Polymarket核心定位意见市场 (Opinion)去中心化预测协议全球最大的预测市场结算机制资金权重/共识 (无裁判)预言机 (Reality.eth/Kleros)预言机 (UMA)获胜关键入场时机与资金规模准确预测客观事实准确预测客观事实主要网络SolanaGnosis ChainPolygon适用场景流行文化、社区观点、Memes加密原生治理、长尾预测政治选举、宏观经济、体育
总的来说，传统的预测市场（如 Polymarket ）严肃得像个股票交易所，而 Cue 更像是一个基于小额赌注的社交媒体游戏。它通过将“观点”资产化，为 Web3 社交互动提供了一种全新的流动性层。
阅读更多：https://www.kkdemian.com/blog/cue_market_prediction

TL;DR
$XPL Plasma is a stablecoin-native Layer-1 blockchain with $2.1B TVL and $300M market cap, backed by institutional investors including Founders Fund and Bitfinex with $75.8M in funding. The protocol offers zero-fee USDT transfers via a novel protocol-level paymaster, achieving sub-second finality through PlasmaBFT consensus. While the technical architecture is compelling for payments infrastructure, TVL has declined -63% from a $14B transient peak post-mainnet launch in September 2025, and the project faces early-stage centralization risks with team-operated validators. The stablecoin-first gas model presents a differentiated value proposition against Tron's USDT dominance, but execution risk remains high in an intensely competitive landscape.
1. Project Overview
Core Positioning: Plasma positions itself as a high-performance, EVM-compatible Layer-1 blockchain purpose-built for stablecoin settlement and global money movement. The network specifically targets retail users in high-stablecoin-adoption regions (emerging markets in Africa/LatAm) and institutions requiring payment rails infrastructure.
AttributeDetailsChain TypeLayer-1 Blockchain / Stablecoin Settlement InfrastructureEVM CompatibilityFull (Reth-based execution client)ConsensusPlasmaBFT (Fast HotStuff BFT variant in Rust)FinalitySub-second (~1s)Target TPS1,000+ (claimed)Security ModelBitcoin-anchored with PoS validator selectionCurrent StageMainnet (launched September 2025)Explorerplasmascan.to
Leadership Team:
Paul Faecks (Founder)Hans Walter Behrens (CTO)Lucid (COO)Vincent Rong (Head of Ecosystem)Nathan Lenga (Head of Growth)
Differentiating Features:
Zero-fee USDT transfers: Protocol-level paymaster sponsors gas for standard USDT transfersCustom gas tokens: Users can pay fees in whitelisted assets (USDT, BTC) with automatic conversionConfidential payments: Privacy features designed for complianceNative Bitcoin bridge: Trust-minimized BTC inflows (pBTC as LayerZero OFT)
2. Product & Technical Stack
Network Architecture
Execution Layer:
Built on Reth (Rust-based Ethereum execution client) for full EVM compatibilitySupports standard tooling: Foundry, Hardhat, MetaMask without contract modificationsModular design separating consensus and execution via Engine API
Consensus Mechanism:
PlasmaBFT: Pipelined Fast HotStuff BFT implementation in RustBFT tolerance: Handles <1/3 faulty validators (n ≥ 3f+1 standard)Validator selection: Proof-of-Stake with stake-weighted committee formationPenalty system: Reward slashing for misbehavior (no stake slashing to reduce capital risk)
Security Architecture:
Progressive decentralization roadmap (currently team-operated validators)State anchoring to Bitcoin blocks for enhanced neutralityBitcoin bridge uses multi-institutional verifier network running full Bitcoin nodes
Developer Infrastructure
ComponentDetailsSmart ContractsSolidity, full EVM compatibilityRPC AccessRate-limited production endpointIndexingNative explorer (plasmascan.to), Etherscan integrationChain ID9745 (mainnet beta)TestnetSeparate testnet environment with faucet
Stablecoin-Native Features:
Integrated card programs (Rain cards for spending at 150M merchants)On/offramp infrastructure (LocalPayAsia, MercadoBitcoin partnerships)Compliance tools (Elliptic AML/KYC/KYT monitoring)DeFi primitives optimized for stablecoin use cases
3. Tokenomics & Funding
Token Economics
MetricValueSymbolXPLTotal Supply10,000,000,000Circulating Supply2,053,994,940 (~20.5%)Current Price$0.145Market Cap$300M24h Volume$104MAll-Time High$1.68 (Sep 28, 2025)All-Time Low$0.116 (Dec 18, 2025)
Token Distribution:
AllocationAmountVestingEcosystem & Growth4B (40%)8% immediate at mainnet beta, rest monthly over 3 yearsTeam2.5B (25%)1-year cliff, then monthly over 2 yearsInvestors2.5B (25%)Same as teamPublic Sale1B (10%)Non-US immediate; US unlocked July 28, 2026
Token Utility:
Native gas: Required for non-USDT transactionsNetwork security: PoS staking (5% initial inflation → 3% target)DeFi: Liquidity provision, collateral, incentivesGovernance: Network decisions post-decentralization
Fundraising & Backers
Total Funding: ~$75.8M across multiple rounds
RoundAmountDateLead InvestorsSeries A$20.5MFeb 2025Framework Ventures, BitfinexStrategic-May 2025Founders FundICO$50MJul 2025-IDO/IEOs-Jul/Sep 2025-
Notable Backers:
Institutional: Founders Fund, Bitfinex, Framework Ventures, Bybit, IMC Trading, DRW VC, Flow Traders, Laser DigitalIndividual: Peter Thiel, Paolo Ardoino (Tether/Bitfinex CEO), Cobie, Christian AngermayerVCs: 6th Man Ventures, Anthos Capital, Manifold, Karatage
4. On-Chain Metrics & Network Usage
Total Value Locked (TVL)
TVL Reconciliation:
Current DeFi TVL: $2.138B (as of January 2026)Peak TVL: $14B (transient, ~5 days post-mainnet in late Sep/early Oct 2025)Decline: -63% from peak, driven by incentive program completion and memecoin frenzy normalizationStablecoin Market Cap: $1.919B (78.98% USDT dominance, +0.78% 7d change)
TVL Composition:
Primary protocol: Aave on Plasma (PlasmAave) peaked at $6.6B TVL mid-October 2025Current Aave TVL: ~$1.7B (November 2025), representing #2 Aave market globally (8% of total Aave borrowing)SyrupUSDT TVL: >$1.1B (second-largest on-chain lending market)Other protocols: Pendle, Ethena, Ether.fi integrations
Bridged TVL Breakdown:
Total bridged: $7.23BNative assets: $4.833BOwn tokens: $57.67MThird-party tokens: $2.397B
Transaction Activity
Cumulative Metrics (as of December 2025):
Total Transactions: 126MAverage Daily Transactions: 1.15MPeak TPS: 83.43 (top-3 among L1s)7-day Transaction Growth: +28% (Dec 29, 2025)
Historical Performance (Sep-Oct 2025 via Dune Analytics):
Daily transactions: 0.3M - 7.2M rangePeak day: Sep 29 with 7.24M transactions (169.5 TPS)
Fee Metrics:
Chain fees/revenue (24h): $245App fees (24h): $347KApp revenue (24h): $74KTransaction fees: Micro-fees (0.00001476-0.00006091 XPL per transaction)DEX volume (24h): $77M (7d: $277M, +83%)
Stablecoin Settlement Data
MetricValueStablecoin Market Cap$1.919BUSDT Dominance78.98%7-day Change+0.78%30-day Change+4.08%Primary StablecoinUSDT0 (Plasma native USDT, ~$1.538B mcap)
Limitations: Granular daily/weekly breakdowns for USDT transfer volumes not available; network activity dominated by zero-fee USDT transfers but specific volume data not captured by standard analytics tools.
5. Protocol Revenue & Economics
Fee Model Architecture
Dual-Economy Design:
Stablecoin Layer (USDT/pBTC):Zero-fee USDT transfers via protocol-managed paymasterGasless mechanism enforced by rate limits and eligibility checksCompatible with EIP-4337/7702 standardsProtocol/Foundation bears full sponsorship costNative Token Layer (XPL):All non-sponsored transactions require XPL gas feesCustom gas token swaps (USDT, BTC) converted via oracles without markupStandard EVM gas pricing: Total fee = Gas used × Gas priceEIP-1559 mechanism: base fee + priority fee + burning
Revenue Sources
Current State:
Protocol fees: Effectively $0 (per DeFiLlama data)Validator revenue: 100% of non-sponsored transaction feesToken incentives: $0 (planned 5% XPL inflation not yet active)Institutional services: Not quantified
Validator Economics:
Currently 2 internal validators (team-operated)No public staking mechanism activePlanned 5% annual $XPL inflation for rewards, tapering to 3%Penalty: Reward slashing only (no stake slashing)
Economic Sustainability Assessment
Cost Structure:
Gas abstraction cost: Protocol/Foundation fully subsidizes USDT transfer gasBurn mechanism: Fee burns from smart contracts/DeFi offset planned inflationBreak-even model: Relies on future non-stablecoin activity growth or inflation activation
Sustainability Indicators:
✅ Low base gas prices enable sustainable sponsorship✅ TVL growth supports fee generation potential ($2B+ DeFi deposits)⚠️ No major revenue streams active in current phase⚠️ High dependency on future validator decentralization and staking activation
Comparative Context: Unlike Ethereum L2s or general L1s, Plasma prioritizes user acquisition over immediate fee revenue, betting on network effects from zero-friction stablecoin transfers.
6. Governance & Risk Assessment
Governance Structure
Current State:
Progressive decentralization roadmap: Starts with trusted validators, expanding to permissionlessGovernance token: XPL designated for network decisions post-decentralizationCurrent control: Team-operated validators (2 internal nodes)Foundation entity: Plasma Foundation oversees protocol development
Regulatory Positioning:
Italy VASP license: AcquiredEU expansion: Netherlands office establishedMiCA compliance: Pursuing CASP (custody/exchange) and EMI (fiat ramps/cards) licensesCompliance infrastructure: Elliptic partnership for AML/KYC/KYT monitoringConfidential transactions: Designed compliant for regulated payments
Security Risks
Consensus Layer (PlasmaBFT):
⚠️ New consensus mechanism: Limited battle-testing compared to established BFT variants⚠️ Liveness risk: Network halt if >1/3 validators faulty (standard BFT limitation)❓ Audit status: No third-party security audits detailed in public sources✅ Separation of concerns: Modular Engine API design limits attack surface
Bitcoin Anchoring/Bridge:
⚠️ Verifier centralization: Multi-institutional design but specific decentralization metrics unclear⚠️ Collusion risk: Potential if verifier set coordination compromised✅ Trust-minimized design: Non-custodial with full Bitcoin node requirements✅ No breaches reported: No security incidents documented since rollout
Validator Centralization:
🔴 High centralization: Only 2 team-operated validators currently⚠️ Single point of failure: Team control over network operation✅ Mitigation roadmap: Progressive decentralization planned with public staking
Economic Risks:
⚠️ USDT dependency: 78.98% stablecoin dominance exposes to Tether risks⚠️ Inflation dilution: If fee burns insufficient to offset 5% staking inflation⚠️ TVL volatility: -63% decline from peak demonstrates ecosystem fragility⚠️ Unlock pressure: 25% team + 25% investor allocations with 1-year cliffs pose selling risk
Regulatory & Compliance Considerations
Stablecoin Settlement Exposure:
✅ Proactive licensing: VASP + MiCA pursuit demonstrates regulatory engagement✅ Compliance-by-design: Elliptic integration, confidential transaction framework⚠️ Jurisdictional complexity: Multi-region operations (Italy, Netherlands, global payments)⚠️ Tether regulatory risk: Heavy USDT reliance ties to broader Tether regulatory exposure
Target Market Risks:
⚠️ Emerging market regulatory uncertainty: LatAm/Africa payment use cases face evolving regulations✅ Institutional partnerships: Binance, Fireblocks, Zerohash provide compliance infrastructure
7. Competitive Landscape & Market Positioning
Stablecoin Settlement Comparison
ChainStablecoin Market CapDominant Stablecoin7d ChangeTransaction FeesSettlement TimePlasma$1.919BUSDT (78.98%)+0.78%$0 (USDT), <$0.01 (others)~1sTron~$60B+ (49% of total USDT)USDT-<$0.01 or free~60sSolana$14.065BUSDC (63.39%)+0.69%<$0.001~0.4s (soft)Arbitrum$4.161BUSDC (53.41%)+5.31%<$0.01<2s (soft)Optimism/Base~$3-4B eachUSDC-<$0.01<2s (soft)
Performance Metrics Comparison
ChainClaimed TPSReal-Time TPSFinalityConsensusPlasma1,000+83-184*~1sPlasmaBFT (PoS)Tron-60-80~60sDPoS (27 SRs)Solana65,000+2,500-4,000~0.4s (soft), ~12.8s (hard)PoH + Tower BFTEthereum L2sVariable30-43 (UOPS)<2s (soft), ~13min (hard)Optimistic/ZK + Ethereum L1
*Peak observed during high-activity periods
Security Model Comparison
ChainSecurity ApproachDecentralizationSettlement LayerPlasmaPlasmaBFT BFT + Bitcoin anchoringProgressive (currently 2 validators)Bitcoin state anchoringTronDPoS with 27 Super RepresentativesSemi-centralizedNative L1SolanaPoH + Tower BFT PoS~1,900 validatorsNative L1Ethereum L2sEthereum settlement + fraud/validity proofsInherits Ethereum securityEthereum L1
Product-Market Fit Analysis
Plasma's Value Proposition:
✅ Zero-fee USDT: Directly addresses Ethereum's high fees and Tron's centralization✅ Sub-second finality: Competitive with Solana for payment use cases✅ EVM compatibility: Enables DeFi migration from Ethereum L1/L2s (Curve, Aave, Ethena)✅ Institutional backing: Tether/Bitfinex alignment validates stablecoin focus✅ Emerging market targeting: Addresses $15.6T USDT 2024 volume (119% of Visa) opportunity
Market Positioning:
Primary competition: Tron (established USDT dominance, $5.46T 2024 volume, 750M transfers)Differentiation: Modern tech stack (EVM, BFT consensus) vs Tron's legacy architectureChallenge: Overcoming Tron's network effects with 400M EM users for remittances/store-of-value
Adoption Catalysts:
Liquidity migration: Attracting Tron users via zero-fee USDT + DeFi opportunitiesInstitutional demand: VASP/MiCA licensing enables regulated payment railsPartnership ecosystem: Rain cards (150M merchants), Zerohash, LocalPayAsia expand distribution
Execution Risks:
⚠️ Unproven scale: Real TPS (83-184 observed) significantly below 1,000+ claim⚠️ TVL decline: -63% retrace suggests user retention challenges⚠️ Competition intensity: Solana ($14B stablecoin MC), Base/Arbitrum ($4B+ each) offer alternative paths
Growth Drivers Assessment
DriverImpactEvidenceStablecoin adoptionHigh$15.6T USDT 2024 volume; decoupled from DeFi TVLEmerging market paymentsMedium-High400M EM users; partnerships in LatAm/AfricaInstitutional settlementMediumBackers (Tether, Founders Fund); VASP licensingDeFi migrationMediumAave #2 market (8% global borrowing); Curve/Ethena integrationPrivacy/complianceLow-MediumConfidential tx + Elliptic monitoring; differentiated but unproven demand
8. Social Sentiment & Community Analysis
Narrative Themes
Core Positioning:
"Stablecoin-native payments infrastructure": Emphasized financial inclusion and low-cost global transactions"DeFi dominance via stablecoin utilization": Highlighting Aave #2 position and high liquidity ratios"Evolution from experimental to operational": Scaling toward trillions in settlement volume
KOL Perspectives
Bullish Analysts:
Infrastructure value thesis: Long-term positioning as top-tier payments L1 through 2026 integrationsFundamental strength: Superior to peers on technical design and backing despite price underperformanceBuyer opportunity: Accumulation during price dips reflects recovery belief
Neutral to Cautious:
Valuation concerns: Early valuation criticized amid communication gapsSeller exhaustion: Suggesting bottoming process after -91% from ATH ($1.68 → $0.116 low)Execution skepticism: DeFi metrics strong but payment adoption timeline uncertain
Controversy Mapping
Price Decline Accusations (Primary Debate):
Community concern: -91% decline from ATH sparks "rug pull" and "team dumping" accusationsFounder response: Denials amid community skepticism over transparencyTimeline: ATH Sep 28, 2025 ($1.68) → ATL Dec 18, 2025 ($0.116) → Current $0.145
Stablecoin Supply Volatility:
Observation: Stablecoin MC peak $6B → Current $1.919B (-68% decline)Questions: Liquidity sustainability, ecosystem retention post-incentive programsContext: Aligned with TVL normalization from $14B transient peak
Communication Quality:
Critique: Gaps during market downturns fuel transparency debatesImpact: Mixed sentiment despite strong fundamental developments
User Behavior Signals
DeFi Engagement:
Users bridging assets for Aave/Fluid yield opportunitiesLiquidity provision activities in stablecoin poolsTransition to sustainable yield models post-memecoin frenzy
Payment Adoption:
Rain card usage for spending at 150M merchantsZerohash integration for fiat on/offrampsLocalPayAsia, MercadoBitcoin partnerships for regional adoption
Investor Actions:
Accumulation during $0.116-0.145 range by believersOngoing selling pressure from early participants facing lossesDiversification advice dominant in external forums
Qualitative Growth Trajectory
Phase 1 (Sep-Oct 2025): Mainnet launch with high initial valuation, incentive-driven TVL spike to $14B
Phase 2 (Nov-Dec 2025): TVL normalization to $2-7B, price decline, stablecoin supply reduction
Phase 3 (Jan 2026): Stabilization with increasing protocol integrations, regulatory milestones (VASP, MiCA pursuit), sustained DeFi usage
Outlook: Shift toward organic demand via partnerships and public beta, building on foundational infrastructure preparations
9. Final Assessment & Scoring
Institutional Investment Scorecard (1-5 Stars)
CategoryScoreRationaleCore Protocol Design⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)Sophisticated BFT consensus, EVM compatibility, modular architecture; loses point for unproven PlasmaBFT battle-testingStablecoin-Native Architecture⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/5)Novel protocol-level paymaster, zero-fee USDT, custom gas tokens; best-in-class stablecoin UXPerformance & Finality⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)Sub-second finality competitive; claimed 1,000+ TPS vs 83-184 observed creates execution gapEconomic Model⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)Innovative dual economy but zero current revenue, high subsidy costs, untested validator economicsMarket Fit⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)Clear PMF for stablecoin payments; strong institutional validation but unproven user retention post-incentivesGovernance & Security⭐⭐ (2/5)High centralization (2 validators), no public audits, new consensus; regulatory positioning positive but execution immature
Overall Score: ⭐⭐⭐½ (3.5/5)
Summary Verdict
Should builders, payment companies, or institutions build on or integrate Plasma?
Qualified YES for forward-looking infrastructure bets; WAIT for conservative institutional deployments. Plasma offers compelling stablecoin-native infrastructure with institutional-grade backing (Founders Fund, Tether, $75.8M funding) and differentiated UX via zero-fee USDT transfers. However, execution risks are high: -63% TVL decline, 2-validator centralization, unproven economics at scale, and intense competition from Tron/Solana. For payment companies: Plasma's regulatory positioning (VASP, MiCA pursuit) and partnerships (Rain, Zerohash) justify pilot integrations. For institutions: Monitor TVL stabilization and validator decentralization before significant capital deployment. For builders: EVM compatibility and DeFi liquidity ($2.1B TVL) enable low-risk experimentation, but diversify across Base/Arbitrum for production workloads.
Risk-Adjusted Investment Thesis
Bull Case (35% probability):
Captures 5-10% of Tron's $60B USDT dominance via superior tech/UXValidator decentralization + staking activation by Q2 2026 resolves centralizationTVL re-accelerates to $5-10B on organic payment adoption + institutional settlementTarget: $1-2B market cap (3-7x from $300M current)
Base Case (45% probability):
Stabilizes as $2-5B TVL niche payments L1 with $500M-1B market capRetains DeFi liquidity but struggles to dislodge Tron network effectsProgressive decentralization proceeds slowly; some institutional adoption
Bear Case (20% probability):
TVL continues decline to <$1B as incentives exhaust, users return to Tron/SolanaValidator centralization + economic model concerns erode institutional confidenceCompetition from Base/Arbitrum stablecoin focus + Solana Firedancer upgradeMarket cap contracts to $100-200M range
Recommended Position Sizing: 2-5% of crypto allocation for high-risk-tolerance portfolios; WAIT for conservative mandates until Q2 2026 decentralization milestones.
Appendix: Data Sources & Methodology
Primary Sources:
Official documentation: plasma.to, docs.plasma.toOn-chain explorer: plasmascan.toAnalytics: DeFiLlama, Token Terminal, Dune AnalyticsSocial: @PlasmaFDN (Twitter/X), community forumsResearch: Binance Research (generallink.top/en/research/projects/plasma)
Data Collection Period: December 17, 2025 - January 16, 2026 UTC
Limitations:
Limited granular on-chain metrics (daily/weekly transaction breakdowns, precise stablecoin volumes)No public security audits available for reviewTVL data sources show discrepancies; DeFiLlama prioritized as authoritativeEarly-stage project with <6 months public mainnet history
Confidence Levels:
High: Tokenomics, funding, technical architecture, regulatory positioningMedium: TVL trends, competitive positioning, social sentimentLow: Long-term economic sustainability, actual vs claimed TPS, user retention
Report generated January 16, 2026 UTC. All data subject to rapid change in early-stage protocols. Independent verification recommended before capital deployment.

1. Visão Geral do Projeto
Nome: Fogo
Domínio: fogo.io
Setor: Blockchain Layer-1 / SVM de Alto Desempenho / Infraestrutura DeFi em Tempo Real
Posicionamento Central: Fogo é uma blockchain de ultra-baixa latência e alta taxa de transferência, projetada especificamente para traders e finanças on-chain de grau institucional. A rede visa tempos de bloco abaixo de 40ms e confirmações abaixo de um segundo para eliminar "impostos de latência", "imposto de atrito", "imposto de bot" e "imposto de velocidade" em ambientes de negociação on-chain. fogo.io
Ambiente de Execução: Máquina Virtual Solana (SVM) com total compatibilidade para programas, ferramentas e fluxos de trabalho Solana, alimentada por um cliente Firedancer unificado (inicialmente hibrido Frankendancer) otimizado para processamento paralelo, gerenciamento de memória, utilização de SIMD e pilha de rede C. docs.fogo.io

TL;DR
Inference Labs representa um provedor pioneiro de infraestrutura zkML focado em habilitar inferências de IA criptograficamente verificáveis e preservando privacidade para aplicações Web3. Operando por meio de seu mercado Bittensor Subnet-2 (Omron) e de seu framework proprietário DSperse, o protocolo alcançou marcos técnicos significativos, incluindo 300 milhões de provas zk processadas durante testes de estresse até 6 de janeiro de 2026. Com 6,3 milhões de dólares em financiamento de investidores de elite (Mechanism Capital, Delphi Ventures) e parcerias estratégicas com Cysic e Arweave, o projeto está posicionado como middleware essencial para agentes autônomos, modelos de risco DeFi e sistemas de governança impulsos por IA. Atualmente pré-TGE, sem token lançado, a Inference Labs demonstra fundamentos técnicos sólidos, mas enfrenta desafios de escalabilidade inerentes à competitividade de custo do zkML e riscos de centralização do provador.

Canton Network Camada-1 com privacidade habilitada
A Canton Network é uma blockchain da Camada-1 com privacidade habilitada projetada para finanças institucionais, processando mais de 6T de ativos do mundo real em blockchain e mais de 600.000 transações diárias até dezembro de 2025. O protocolo utiliza um modelo único de tokenômica de queima e mint com seu token nativo CC (capitalização de mercado de 2,7B, 36B tokens em circulação), recompensando validadores e provedores de aplicações por meio de um mecanismo de lançamento justo sem pré-mineração ou alocações para VC. Com mais de 575 validadores, incluindo instituições principais como Goldman Sachs e BNP Paribas, a Canton alcançou o alinhamento produto-mercado no setor financeiro regulamentado, embora sua arquitetura focada na privacidade limite a transparência dos detentores tradicionais e a análise em blockchain.

TL;DR
Octra representa uma blockchain L1 de criptografia totalmente homomórfica (FHE) pioneira com criptografia proprietária baseada em hipergrafos, com alpha da rede principal operacional desde 17 de dezembro de 2025, e demonstrou uma taxa de transação de 17.000 TPS em 100 milhões de transações. No entanto, existem riscos significativos, incluindo criptografia proprietária não auditada com vulnerabilidades documentadas em protótipos, status pré-receita com FDV de 200 milhões de dólares, atrasos repetidos em ICOs e posicionamento regulatório incerto para computação criptografada em larga escala.
1. Visão Geral do Projeto

TL;DR
TradeGenius lançou sua mainnet em 13 de janeiro de 2026 como um sistema operacional de negociação on-chain com foco em privacidade, apoiado pela YZi Labs (investimento multi-8 figuras) com CZ como consultor. A plataforma processou 160 milhões de dólares em volume no testnet e agora oferece acesso unificado a spot/perps/rendimento em mais de 10 cadeias com execução sem assinatura e invisível em cadeia por meio de Pedidos Fantasma e arquitetura MPC. Com 200 milhões de Pontos Genius distribuídos na Temporada 1 (que termina em 16 de março de 2026) e taxas de 0% durante o período promocional inicial, a plataforma tem como objetivo traders profissionais que buscam execução institucional em DeFi sem a fricção de UX tradicional.

[Coluna sobre dinheiro de longo prazo] Coluna nº 2 de pesquisa sobre dinheiro de longo prazo - Vamos falar sobre gerenciamento de ativos
Autor: yh
Comentário:kk
Por que as pessoas comuns precisam realizar a gestão de ativos? Como realizar a gestão de ativos?
 
Aqui vamos nós, família. Esta é a segunda edição da coluna Changqian, que fala sobre a gestão de ativos das pessoas comuns.
Por que as pessoas comuns precisam de gestão de ativos?
Em primeiro lugar, precisamos de rever o nosso conceito de dinheiro a longo prazo:
Ganhe dinheiro facilmente
Bom ativo + bom preço + participação a longo prazo
A gestão de ativos de que falaremos hoje atende ao conceito de holding de longo prazo.

[Coluna sobre dinheiro de longo prazo] 1. A coluna de pesquisa sobre dinheiro de longo prazo começou! Progresso 5,23%
Autor: yh
Comentário:kk
Esta é uma nova coluna para registrar o processo de nos tornarmos ricos lentamente juntos na web3.
Pessoas diferentes têm sistemas de investimento diferentes
Recentemente, tive vários encontros para café com KK (Sr. Bai). Quando falamos sobre investimento na web3, descobrimos que cada pessoa tem filosofias e estratégias de investimento diferentes. Algumas pessoas compram apenas BTC (Top 1), algumas pessoas compram apenas ETH e BTC (Top 2), algumas pessoas compram apenas moedas convencionais (Top 20), algumas pessoas perseguem pontos quentes e vão contra os cães locais, e algumas pessoas se concentram em airdrops para começar a trabalhar Na sala, algumas pessoas se concentram na mineração e retiram moedas e as vendem, enquanto outras não compram moedas, mas ainda podem ganhar dinheiro fornecendo vários serviços no ecossistema web3... Pessoas diferentes têm investimentos diferentes. sistemas, e não há distinção entre alto e baixo, desde que possa gerar lucro, é um bom sistema.

[Coluna sobre dinheiro de longo prazo] Coluna nº 3 de pesquisa sobre dinheiro de longo prazo - Vamos falar sobre negociação em grade
Autor: yh
Comentário:kk
 
Aqui vamos nós, família. Esta é a terceira edição da coluna Changqian. Vamos falar sobre a negociação quantitativa da grade na qual o grupo de amigos está interessado.
negociação em rede
A negociação em grade é um meio específico de negociação quantitativa. O mais importante na quantificação é liberar as mãos e seguir rigorosamente as configurações do programa para realizar as operações de compra e venda. Após a conclusão das configurações, a menos que os parâmetros sejam modificados ativamente, as operações manuais geralmente não são mais necessárias.
Geralmente, existem muitas grades predefinidas De acordo com o tipo de par de negociação, ela pode ser dividida em grade moeda-usdt (referida como grade moeda-U) ou grade moeda-moeda (referida como grade moeda-moeda I). atualmente mantido Existe uma grade de moeda ETH-BTC. Por que mantenho o BibiGrid, mas não o BiUGrid? Porque acho que o preço da moeda atual está um pouco alto e não quero comprá-lo. Então, por que mantenho o Bitcoin Grid? Porque acho que ainda há uma diferença de taxa de câmbio entre ETH-BTC e posso ganhar dinheiro, só isso.