In a move that has sparked international scrutiny and diplomatic ambiguity, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced this week that India has agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil as part of a newly struck U.S.-India trade agreement. The claim, however, stands in stark contrast to statements from Moscow and has been met with widespread skepticism from analysts who question New Delhi’s willingness to sever such a critical economic link.
The Announcement and the Denial
Trump took to his Truth Social platform on Monday to declare that a trade deal had been finalized following a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In his post, he stated the leaders discussed “ending the War with Russia and Ukraine” and that Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.”
As part of the agreement, Trump said the U.S. would reduce its main tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and remove an additional 25% penalty tariff imposed last summer in retaliation for India’s increased imports of discounted Russian crude.
Prime Minister Modi confirmed the trade deal on X, expressing delight that “Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%.” He made no mention, however, of halting Russian oil imports.
The Kremlin was quick to respond. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “We haven’t heard any statements from Delhi on this matter yet,” emphasizing Russia’s commitment to its “advanced strategic partnership” with India. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a former oil minister, downplayed the potential impact, suggesting that global demand would naturally absorb any redirected Russian supply.
A History of Strategic Hedging
India’s position as a top buyer of Russian crude solidified after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as Western sanctions created an opportunity for New Delhi to secure energy at a steep discount. This relationship exists within a complex web of geopolitical loyalties: India maintains deep historical, defense, and strategic ties with Russia while simultaneously pursuing a closer partnership with the United States.
Analysts argue that publicly committing to end Russian oil purchases is a political and strategic improbability for Modi’s government. “I have a hard time believing the government of India will make any Russian oil-related commitment explicit,” said Evan A. Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He noted that maintaining the option to buy Russian oil is a symbol of India’s foreign policy autonomy and a buffer against perceived American coercion—both resonant themes in domestic Indian politics.
Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, described India’s challenge as a delicate “balancing act.” While India may continue to diversify its oil imports, it is unlikely to abruptly abandon a partner with which it has significantly deepened relations. The priority, Aamer suggests, is to navigate these two crucial relationships without jeopardizing either.
Economic Realities vs. Political Declarations
The economic incentives for India to continue purchasing Russian oil remain powerful. Moody’s Ratings agency warned that an immediate cessation could disrupt economic growth, raise manufacturing costs, and fuel inflation in one of the world’s largest oil-importing nations. A sudden shift away from Russian crude could also tighten global supply and increase prices worldwide.
Data suggests India had already begun to modestly reduce its Russian oil imports following the U.S. imposition of penalty tariffs last year. This incremental adjustment appears more plausible than a wholesale embargo. As Feigenbaum observed, publicly rebuking Russia is a “nonstarter” for a leader who “can ill afford to humiliate one of India’s most important defense partners.”
The Road Ahead
The discrepancy between Trump’s announcement and the subsequent silence from New Delhi—coupled with Moscow’s dismissal—highlights the opaque nature of high-stakes diplomacy and the art of political messaging. The U.S.-India trade deal itself represents a tangible step in mending recent trade tensions. However, the assertion regarding Russian oil seems less a definitive policy shift and more a point of leverage or aspirational framing.
For now, the world watches to see how India navigates this triangulation. The nation is poised to continue its pragmatic approach: securing economic advantages from the West while safeguarding a time-tested, strategically vital partnership with Russia. The “devil in the details,” as some analysts have put it, will ultimately reveal whether this deal signifies a fundamental realignment or simply another chapter in India’s sophisticated dance of multi-alignment.
