Boy Lost In Thoughts

Raportul despre politica monetară din februarie 2026 al Băncii Angliei relevă că Comitetul de Politică Monetară (MPC) a votat strâns (5-4) pentru a menține ratele dobânzilor la 3.75%, patru membri insistând pentru o reducere la 3.5%. Deși inflația rămâne peste ținta de 2%, se așteaptă să revină la niveluri apropiate de țintă începând cu aprilie 2026, în mare parte datorită prețurilor mai mici la energie—incluzând măsuri din Bugetul 2025—și a relaxării inflației salariilor și serviciilor.
Raportul indică faptul că politica monetară devine din ce în ce mai puțin restrictivă, cu rata băncii deja redusă cu 150 de puncte de bază din august 2024. Se preconizează că vor urma reduceri suplimentare, deși momentul va depinde de datele primite. MPC subliniază echilibrarea riscurilor: asigurându-se că inflația revine în mod durabil la 2% fără a exagera în restricții și a provoca o slăbiciune economică inutilă.

In a closely divided 5-4 vote, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee chose to hold the key interest rate steady at 3.75%. While acknowledging that inflation is expected to fall to the 2% target from April—primarily due to falling energy prices—the majority opted for caution, wanting more assurance that underlying wage and price pressures would sustainably subside. However, the Committee clearly signaled that further rate cuts are likely in the near future, noting that the risk of persistent high inflation has receded while risks from weaker economic demand are growing. The decision highlights a delicate balancing act: pausing to confirm inflation is truly defeated while preparing to ease policy to support a sluggish economy.

Key Points :
Hold: The Bank of England kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.75%.Reason: The decision comes as inflation remains above the 2% target (currently 3.4%), though the economy shows signs of recovery.Divided Vote: The decision was tight, with the rate-setting committee voting 5-4 (the minority wanted a cut).Future Outlook: The Bank signaled that rate cuts are likely later this year, forecasting inflation will fall to target "by the spring."Context: This follows a long cycle of steady rate reductions. The government is banking on falling inflation to pave the way for cheaper borrowing to boost growth.Balancing Act: The Bank is trying to tame inflation without unnecessarily stifling economic growth.
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Bitcoin’s decline accelerated, pulling its price down to around $71,000 despite entering oversold territory. The cryptocurrency has now fallen back to a zone that acted as strong resistance throughout much of 2024, attracting some bargain hunters. Although technical indicators suggest the sell-off is extreme, fears of continued losses remain — especially with nearly half of all Bitcoin holdings currently underwater. Some analysts caution that a drop toward $60,000 is possible if historical bear market patterns repeat, though increased institutional involvement may help cushion further falls.

Key Points:
Bitcoin’s sell-off deepened, dropping toward $70K before settling near $71K, erasing gains and revisiting a key resistance area from early 2024.The daily RSI hit 22 — its most oversold level since August 2023 — signaling extreme selling pressure.The total crypto market cap fell over 5% to $2.42 trillion, reaching levels last seen in April 2025, with institutional sell-offs possibly worsening declines.Data shows 44% of Bitcoin supply is now at an unrealized loss, with only 56% of coins still in profit.Analysts warn that if the 2022 bear market repeats, Bitcoin could fall another 20% toward $60K.However, some experts believe a collapse like 2018 or 2022 is unlikely due to institutional adoption, regulated products, and expected rate cuts.In other crypto news: Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin called for a new L2 model, and Standard Chartered lowered Solana’s 2026 target but sees long-term growth potential.
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XRP has tumbled sharply, dragged down by a broader sell-off in technology stocks. The token fell over 5% to approximately $1.43, marking its lowest price in four months. This decline mirrors a significant drop in major tech indices like the Nasdaq, as investor sentiment soured over rising AI spending concerns.

Key Points & On-Chain Analysis:
Widespread Losses: A large portion of XRP's supply is now held at a loss, with holder stress reaching levels last seen in October 2024.Macro Pressure: Unlike the 2024 rally driven by political catalysts, the current downturn is fueled by a hostile macroeconomic climate where crypto is trading in tandem with declining tech stocks.Critical Price Zone: XRP is trading near a key on-chain metric, the "realized price" (~$1.47). Historically, falling below this level has signaled deeper price corrections, with a potential downside target near $1.15.A Glimmer of Hope: Despite the sell-off, long-term holders are accumulating more XRP, a pattern that has previously preceded market stabilization.Technical Outlook:Short-Term: Bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart suggests a potential relief rebound toward $1.57 or higher.Long-Term: The weekly chart shows XRP testing a major support confluence near $1.40-$1.43. Holding this zone is critical. A breakdown could trigger a steeper fall toward $1.13 or even $0.93.
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December Manufacturing Orders Skyrocket
Provisional data for December 2025 shows a powerful, broad-based rebound in manufacturing demand, though a significant portion is concentrated in large-scale projects.
Headline Surge: New orders jumped +7.8% from November 2025 (seasonally adjusted).Underlying Trend: Excluding volatile large-scale orders, growth was a more modest +0.9%, indicating the headline figure was boosted by major contracts.Strong Quarterly Performance: Orders in Q4 2025 were 9.5% higher than in Q3 2025 (or +2.5% excluding large-scale orders).Sector Highlights:Major Gains: Fabricated metal products (+30.2%) and machinery & equipment (+11.5%) were the primary drivers, with large orders across these sectors.Solid Growth: Electrical equipment (+9.8%) and computer/electronic products (+5.7%) also contributed positively.Declines: Orders fell in the automotive industry (-6.3%) and other transport equipment (-18.7%), despite some large orders in the latter.Geographic Split: Domestic orders soared +10.7%, while foreign orders grew +5.6% (driven by a +9.7% increase from non-euro area countries).Contrast with Turnover: Despite the order boom, actual turnover (sales) in December fell 1.4% month-on-month, highlighting a potential divergence between future demand and current activity.
Previous Month Revised Upward: November 2025 growth was revised up to +5.7% (from +5.6%).
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On February 5, 2026, Japan’s Ministry of Finance concluded a significant auction for 30-Year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The results offer a detailed snapshot of current investor sentiment and long-term borrowing costs for the Japanese government.
Auction at a Glance
Bond Issued: 30-Year JGB (Issue Number 89)Key Date: Auctioned February 5, 2026; Issued February 6, 2026; Matures December 20, 2055.Nominal Coupon Rate: 3.4% (fixed interest paid to bondholders).Amount Raised: ¥525.0 billion accepted from competitive bids.Primary Yield: 3.623% (yield at the lowest accepted price).Investor Demand: Total bids amounted to ¥1,908.5 billion, indicating strong market interest.
Detailed Breakdown of the Auction Results
The table below summarizes the key financial metrics from the auction.
⚖️ Pricing and Yields (Key Results)
Lowest Accepted Price: ¥96.80 (per ¥100 of face value)Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price: 3.623% (This is the highest yield, or government borrowing cost, accepted in the auction)Weighted Average Price: ¥96.91Yield at the Weighted Average Price: 3.615% (This represents the average yield/borrowing cost across all accepted bids)Allotment for Bids at Lowest Price: 75.7858% of bids submitted at the lowest accepted price (¥96.80) were granted.
📈 Key Takeaway
The successful auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.64, demonstrates solid investor demand for long-term Japanese government debt. The effective yield for the government settled around 3.62%.Interpreting the Market Signals
A bid-to-cover ratio of 3.64 is a strong indicator of healthy demand. It shows investors were willing to commit nearly 3.6 times the amount of debt finally sold. This robust appetite allowed the Ministry of Finance to sell the bonds at a favorable price, very close to their face value.
The yield of approximately 3.62% is a critical figure. It represents the Japanese government's effective long-term borrowing cost for this 30-year period and serves as a key benchmark for other long-term interest rates in the economy.
Market Context and Implications
This auction was closely watched as Japan continues to navigate its monetary policy. The solid demand, evidenced by the high bid-to-cover ratio, suggests investor confidence in Japan's long-term creditworthiness. The yield near 3.62% will be used by analysts to assess the market's long-term inflation and growth expectations.
Successful long-term bond auctions like this one are essential for funding government initiatives and provide stability to Japan's extensive financial markets. The result indicates a smooth absorption of new debt, which is a positive sign for financial market stability.
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On February 4, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board announced it has finalized the hypothetical scenarios for its upcoming annual stress test, designed to evaluate the resilience of major banks under severe economic conditions. The test will simulate a deep global recession featuring a 10% unemployment rate, plunging real estate prices, and corporate debt market stress.
Additionally, the Board decided to maintain existing capital buffer requirements until 2027, allowing for public input and model improvements. The move aims to enhance the reliability and fairness of supervisory models while ensuring large banks can continue supporting households and businesses during financial stress.
Key Points :
The Federal Reserve has finalized its annual stress test scenarios for 2026, which will assess how 32 large banks would withstand a severe global recession.The scenarios project a sharp rise in unemployment (up to 10%), significant declines in real estate (30% home price drop, 39% commercial real estate drop), and severe market volatility.Banks with large trading or custodial operations will also face additional shock tests, including a global market shock and a counterparty default scenario.The Fed voted to keep current stress capital buffer requirements unchanged until 2027, allowing time to incorporate public feedback and refine models.Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman emphasized that this pause will improve transparency, fairness, and accountability in the stress testing process.The stress test is not a forecast but a hypothetical exercise to ensure banks remain resilient and able to lend during economic downturns.
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După ce a eșuat să treacă prin rezistență, aurul (XAU/USD) se află acum într-o fază de consolidare, tranzacționându-se într-un interval larg. Piața este în prezent în pauză, deoarece cumpărătorii apără niveluri critice de suport și decid următoarea mișcare în direcție.
Puncte cheie:
Breakout eșuat & consolidare: raliul aurului a fost respins la nivelul de rezistență de $5,092, ducând la un breakout eșuat deasupra mediei mobile pe 10 zile. Acest lucru semnalează o potențială pauză sau o retragere pe termen scurt.
Suportul cheie se menține: Cumpărătorii apără activ mediile mobile pe 20 de zile și 50 de zile. Un minim zilnic mai mare de $4,852 și un rebound puternic de la 50-DMA ($4,516) confirmă forța cumpărătorilor subiacente și mențin tendința de creștere intermediară intactă.

Într-o mișcare care a stârnit o examinare internațională și ambiguitate diplomatică, fostul președinte al SUA, Donald Trump, a anunțat săptămâna aceasta că India a fost de acord să oprească achiziționarea de petrol rus ca parte a unui nou acord comercial între SUA și India. Totuși, afirmația stă în contrast puternic cu declarațiile de la Moscova și a fost întâmpinată cu scepticism pe scară largă din partea analiștilor care contestă disponibilitatea New Delhi-ului de a rupă un astfel de link economic critic.

Anunțul și Negarea
Trump a recurs la platforma sa Truth Social luni pentru a declara că un acord comercial a fost finalizat în urma unei conversații cu prim-ministrul indian Narendra Modi. În postarea sa, el a afirmat că liderii au discutat despre „încheierea războiului cu Rusia și Ucraina” și că Modi „a fost de acord să oprească cumpărarea de petrol rus și să cumpere mult mai mult din Statele Unite și, potențial, Venezuela.”

Sondajul PMI® pentru Serviciile Globale S&P din SUA pentru ianuarie 2026 relevă un sector de servicii din SUA care continuă să crească, dar cu un ritm moderat de către vânturi economice semnificative, inclusiv tarife și incertitudine pe scară largă. Indicele Activității Economice a crescut ușor la 52.7, semnalizând o expansiune susținută, dar istoric slabă, în timp ce sectorul marchează exact trei ani de creștere continuă.
Punctele Cheie ale Sondajului
Expansiune Susținută dar Moderată: Indicele Activității Economice PMI® pentru Servicii a înregistrat 52.7 în ianuarie, în creștere de la 52.5 în decembrie. Deși aceasta indică un al treilea an consecutiv de creștere a sectorului, rata rămâne sub nivelurile tipice observate pe parcursul anului 2025.

TEMPE, Ariz. – 4 februarie 2026 – Sectorul de servicii din SUA a început 2026 pe o bază stabilă, cu activitatea economică extinzându-se pentru a 19-a lună consecutiv, conform celui mai recent raport PMI® al Institutului pentru Managementul Furnizării® (ISM®) publicat astăzi.
PMI® pentru servicii a înregistrat 53.8% în ianuarie, neschimbat față de cifra revizuită din decembrie. O citire peste 50% indică expansiune. Performanța constantă sugerează o forță de bază în sectorul care cuprinde majoritatea economiei americane, chiar și în condițiile în care apar semnale de presiune inflaționistă persistentă și provocări în evoluție.