BITCOIN – What timing for the end of the bear market?

It has now been 122 days since Bitcoin printed its cyclical peak at USD 126,000. Since then, its price and time evolution has been reproducing, with almost unsettling precision, the structure of the 2022 bear market—the last genuine “bear market.” However, caution is required: this analogy has its limits and cannot hold indefinitely.

$BTC is currently showing a drawdown of around 40% from its all-time high reached on Monday, October 6. Historically, from one bear market to another, the magnitude of drawdowns has tended to decrease, while still remaining consistently above 70%. Personally, I believe that the drawdown of the current cycle will be more moderate, mainly due to the now significant weight of institutional players, which is unmatched compared to previous cycles.

That said, it is undeniable that Bitcoin is still, at this stage, following the technical and cyclical logic observed in 2022. But $BTC has never exactly replicated a past pattern: history rhymes, it does not repeat itself. The market top formed 80 weeks after the halving (all data are shown on the chart below), while the theoretical bottom zone has historically been located around 130 weeks post-halving, projecting us toward the month of September. However, several indicators suggest that the bottom could be reached earlier, notably through relative dynamics and arbitrage with precious metals.

The latter have in fact entered a corrective phase since the end of last week, likely marking the bursting of a speculative bubble that had become particularly excessive since the last quarter of 2025. Technical analysis of the BTC/GOLD ratio indicates that a major bottom could be near. This ratio is currently entering its 59th week of bear market territory, a duration that corresponds exactly to the end of the 2022 bear market. Added to this is a key proportion: the BTC/GOLD ratio has corrected approximately 80% of its previous bullish cycle, once again a level that coincided with the final bottom in 2022.

It therefore becomes plausible, even if the BTC low in US dollars could still be slightly lower, that Bitcoin will not fully replicate the trajectory of the 2022 bear market.

This nuance is fundamental. The macroeconomic and structural context of 2026 bears no resemblance to that of 2022. At the time, the market was undergoing brutal monetary tightening, the collapse of several major players in the crypto ecosystem, and a generalized risk-off environment. Today, despite a significant correction, the environment is far more mature: robust infrastructure, deep institutional liquidity, and regulated financial products help cushion periods of stress.

In summary, even if Bitcoin continues to rely on its cyclical and temporal benchmarks, it is unlikely to reproduce their final intensity. Everything points to a bear market that is shorter, more contained, and structurally different. According to my scenario, the maximum drawdown would lie in a range between USD 50,000 and USD 70,000.

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