Mashad Crypto

Will the Crypto Market Bounce Back This Week?
The cryptocurrency market has faced significant downward pressure recently, with prices across major digital assets falling sharply. Bitcoin dropped toward the $70,000–$72,000 range, losing some key support levels that traders were watching closely. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, BNB and Cardano, also experienced declines of roughly 8–20%. Overall, the total market capitalization of crypto decreased by about 7% in a short span of time, signaling that traders are increasingly cautious and risk-averse.
Why Is the Market Struggling?
Several factors are contributing to this recent sell-off:
Interest Rate Concerns: Investors are closely monitoring the U.S. Federal Reserve and global monetary policies. Any signs of continued or aggressive interest rate hikes increase uncertainty, which tends to push traders toward safer, lower-risk investments rather than volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.
Weak Economic Data: Recent economic indicators have been disappointing, causing concern among investors. Slower growth, lower employment numbers, or other negative data points can make traders hesitant to hold high-risk assets, fueling a broader market decline.
Risk Aversion: The cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to sentiment. As uncertainty grows, more traders are exiting positions to avoid potential losses, further amplifying the downward trend.
Could the Market Rebound This Week?
While the recent declines have raised caution, there is potential for a rebound, although it is far from guaranteed. Several factors could influence whether crypto prices recover:
Upcoming Economic Reports: Traders are watching upcoming U.S. economic data closely. If figures such as employment reports or other indicators point to slower economic growth, it may ease concerns about interest rates. Lower interest rate expectations historically favor riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, which could support a market rebound.
Investor Sentiment Shifts: Crypto markets are heavily influenced by trader psychology. If investors begin to see recent price drops as oversold levels, demand could increase. This renewed confidence can trigger buying activity and help stabilize prices.
External Catalysts: News around crypto adoption, institutional investments, or regulatory developments can also impact prices. Positive developments may encourage renewed interest and investment, potentially aiding recovery.
In summary
The crypto market is at a crossroads. While recent declines highlight caution and uncertainty, a rebound is possible if macroeconomic signals ease and investor confidence improves. Traders should stay informed, monitor key indicators and remain prepared for volatility. Opportunities exist for those who watch the market closely, but patience and careful decision-making remain essential.
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BITCOIN – What timing for the end of the bear market?
It has now been 122 days since Bitcoin printed its cyclical peak at USD 126,000. Since then, its price and time evolution has been reproducing, with almost unsettling precision, the structure of the 2022 bear market—the last genuine “bear market.” However, caution is required: this analogy has its limits and cannot hold indefinitely.
$BTC is currently showing a drawdown of around 40% from its all-time high reached on Monday, October 6. Historically, from one bear market to another, the magnitude of drawdowns has tended to decrease, while still remaining consistently above 70%. Personally, I believe that the drawdown of the current cycle will be more moderate, mainly due to the now significant weight of institutional players, which is unmatched compared to previous cycles.
That said, it is undeniable that Bitcoin is still, at this stage, following the technical and cyclical logic observed in 2022. But $BTC has never exactly replicated a past pattern: history rhymes, it does not repeat itself. The market top formed 80 weeks after the halving (all data are shown on the chart below), while the theoretical bottom zone has historically been located around 130 weeks post-halving, projecting us toward the month of September. However, several indicators suggest that the bottom could be reached earlier, notably through relative dynamics and arbitrage with precious metals.
The latter have in fact entered a corrective phase since the end of last week, likely marking the bursting of a speculative bubble that had become particularly excessive since the last quarter of 2025. Technical analysis of the BTC/GOLD ratio indicates that a major bottom could be near. This ratio is currently entering its 59th week of bear market territory, a duration that corresponds exactly to the end of the 2022 bear market. Added to this is a key proportion: the BTC/GOLD ratio has corrected approximately 80% of its previous bullish cycle, once again a level that coincided with the final bottom in 2022.
It therefore becomes plausible, even if the BTC low in US dollars could still be slightly lower, that Bitcoin will not fully replicate the trajectory of the 2022 bear market.
This nuance is fundamental. The macroeconomic and structural context of 2026 bears no resemblance to that of 2022. At the time, the market was undergoing brutal monetary tightening, the collapse of several major players in the crypto ecosystem, and a generalized risk-off environment. Today, despite a significant correction, the environment is far more mature: robust infrastructure, deep institutional liquidity, and regulated financial products help cushion periods of stress.
In summary, even if Bitcoin continues to rely on its cyclical and temporal benchmarks, it is unlikely to reproduce their final intensity. Everything points to a bear market that is shorter, more contained, and structurally different. According to my scenario, the maximum drawdown would lie in a range between USD 50,000 and USD 70,000.
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ALTCOIN PHASE IS STARTING
Something important is happening in the market right now.
Altcoins are slowly taking strength while Bitcoin is no longer moving alone. What looked boring and quiet before is now turning into a clear early expansion phase for altcoins.
This kind of move does not start with noise. It starts with time, patience, and smart accumulation. That phase is already behind us. Now momentum is waking up.
Money flow is changing direction.
Bitcoin dominance is losing control, and capital is beginning to spread into stronger altcoins. This shift usually happens before wide market expansion, not after it.
At the same time, traditional safe assets already made their move. Gold and silver ran first, which often signals that the next wave looks for higher returns. Crypto usually benefits when that transition begins.
Liquidity conditions are also improving. The chance of easier monetary policy is increasing, and every time fresh money enters the system, risk assets react strongly. Crypto has always been one of the fastest markets to respond.
Regulation is no longer a headwind.
Clear rules around stablecoins are already in place, and broader crypto laws are moving forward. This removes fear, confusion, and hesitation for large players. When rules are clear, big capital feels safe to enter.
All these pieces coming together is not random.
This is how major cycles start — quietly, then suddenly.
The altcoin move is not crowded yet. Most people are still watching, not positioned. That is why this phase matters. Early positioning creates the biggest reward.
This is not excitement. This is experience.
When structure, liquidity, and sentiment align, price moves faster than expected.
The rotation is not finished.
In reality, it has only just begun.
$BTC
$BNB

Why Failed Breakouts Often Mark Major Crypto Reversals
Strong trends don’t usually end with collapse.
They end with failure.
A failed breakout is one of the clearest warning signs in crypto — and one of the most ignored.
What a Failed Breakout Really Is
A breakout fails when:
Price moves beyond a key level
Traders enter aggressively
Momentum stalls
Price closes back below the level
This isn’t just a bad trade.
It’s information.
It tells you the market tried to continue — and couldn’t.
Why This Matters More in Crypto
Crypto is heavily leveraged.
When a breakout happens:
Breakout traders enter long
Shorts get stopped
Funding rises
Open interest increases
All of that assumes continuation.
When price immediately rejects, those positions are wrong at the same time. That creates forced selling, not voluntary exits.
Failed breakouts turn optimism into pressure.
The Psychology Behind the Reversal
After a failure, traders hesitate.
Longs doubt the trend.
New buyers stop chasing.
Early holders start taking profits.
Price doesn’t need bad news anymore.
It just needs absence of demand.
That’s how reversals begin quietly — then accelerate.
The Common Mistake Traders Make
They treat failed breakouts as noise.
They assume price will “try again.”
Sometimes it does. Often it doesn’t.
In crypto, multiple failed attempts at the same level usually weaken the trend, not strengthen it.
Every failure adds trapped positions.
How Professionals Read Failed Breakouts
They don’t immediately short every failure.
They watch reaction.
If:
Price fails and can’t reclaim the level
Momentum weakens
Spot demand disappears
Risk shifts.
Failed breakouts near highs often mark distribution.
Failed breakdowns near lows often mark accumulation.
Context decides direction.
Why This Is a Turning Point Signal
Breakouts show intent.
Failures show limits.
Crypto trends don’t end when everyone turns bearish.
They end when bullish attempts stop working.
Failed breakouts are the market telling you:
“This move has done its job.”
Ignoring that message is how traders overstay.$BTC
$ETH