La Mariposa

SHIB — despite the level breakdown, the strong higher-timeframe long signal is still in play. We’ve seen daily structures break technically, and this usually happens only during black swan seasons, but in a large percentage of cases such signals still work well. Technical analysis works even when it seems like it doesn’t.
UNI — a similar situation with another sweep of the lows. Important: there are level breakdowns, so we need to watch where the weekly candle closes.
ONDO — the same picture.
$BTC / XRP / SOL / ETH — higher hourly timeframes are signaling at least a potential stop. Let’s see.

$ETH /USDT Long ⬆️ — Trade Idea ❇️❇️❇️
— Extreme oversold conditions, support level retest, trend consolidation retest, and convergences on higher timeframes
— Entry: $1873 — market buy order
— Stop: $1690
— Target: $4300
Risk per trade: 0.5% of total deposit
Position size: 6% of total deposit
RR 1:15

$BTC — let’s look at the history. If we manage to hold the current 60–70k range, there is every chance to see 180k in the long term (I don’t know — six months, a year?). So far, we are seeing historically similar buyback patterns and, overall, nearly equal time between the decline and the recovery.
The fundamentals are still here. Bitcoin hasn’t been hacked, fear is at its peak, and everyone is sitting in dollars. We’ll see. Otherwise, a crypto winter down to around 30k is almost guaranteed.

$BTC a fost într-o zonă profund supravândută cu un dezechilibru extrem pentru o lungă perioadă de timp, iar indicii sunt la minim. Unde este oprirea? Nu știu — în situații de panică nimeni nu știe vreodată. Nivelurile sunt sparte, oamenii devin nebuni.
În sezoane și etape ca aceasta (da, este o etapă, nu pentru totdeauna), încercarea de a prinde fundul are sens doar cu un stop strâns.
Dar cea mai bună strategie care funcționează întotdeauna este să cumperi și să ții, dacă vorbim despre activele cripto de top și fără levier. Fundamentele rămân foarte puternice. O vânzare nu face ca Bitcoin să înceteze să fie Bitcoin. Vânzarea din panică este determinată de motive globale, nu de probleme cu Bitcoin sau alte active de top.
Întrebare: cine cumpără panică? Răspuns: cu siguranță nu retail. Vestea bună este că o astfel de scădere nu creează multe niveluri de rezistență, așa că cel mai apropiat este în jur de 85k.
Aștept să se formeze divergențe (altcoins deja le au) pentru a adăuga mai mult la pozițiile lungi. Când începe un sezon ca acesta, cel mai bun lucru pe care îl poate face un trader este să respecte regulile lor: condiții supravândute, retestări ale suportului, divergențe — cumpără.

$ONDO /USDT Long ⬆️ — Trade Idea

— Extreme oversold conditions, technical long signals across almost all higher timeframes (divergences), strong upside potential in case of a rebound, and a well-defined stop level.

— Entry: $0.281 — market buy order

— Stop: $0.26

— Target: $0.41

Risk per trade: 1% of total deposit

Position size: 15% of total deposit

RR: 1:6.3

$BTC is currently testing a key support level.

In case of a breakdown, we could realistically see the $55k zone. However, the market is showing extreme oversold conditions across multiple indicators and an emerging bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe. On some altcoins, confirmed higher-timeframe divergences are already in place, which could signal at least a pause in the downside momentum.

On the hourly timeframe, a falling wedge is forming (breakout level around $78k, target $86–88k). That said, the sell-off has been so steep that this structure could also simply reflect extreme buyer weakness.

The next major support lies in the $68–70k zone. I remain biased toward the long side — even a modest return of demand could move price sharply.

$CAKE /USDT Long ⬆️ — Trade Idea ❇️❇️❇️

— Extreme oversold conditions, a retest of a strong support zone, and forming divergences on higher timeframes.

— Entry: $1.5785 — market buy order

— Stop: $1.454

— Target: $2.10

Risk per trade: 0.2% of total deposit

Position size: 3% of total deposit

RR: 1:4

$SOL /USDT Long ⬆️ — Trade Idea ❇️❇️❇️

— Extreme oversold conditions, test of a strong support zone, forming convergences on higher timeframes

— Entry: $103 — market buy order

— Stop: $92

— Target: $240

Risk per trade: 0.2% of the total deposit

Position size: 2% of the total deposit

RR: 1:22

$BTC /USDT Long ⬆️

— Extreme oversold conditions, almost no long positions, strong market imbalance, bullish divergences on the hourly and daily timeframes.

— Entry: $78,700 — market buy order

— Stop: $76,800

— Target: $88,000

Risk per trade: 1% of total deposit

Position size: 45% of total deposit, spot (or on a futures account with 1x leverage selected in settings)

RR: 1:5.25

$BTC /USDT Long Set-up

— Support retest, test of the lower consolidation zone, potential divergence on the hourly timeframes, oversold conditions, and an imbalance in open positions.

— Entry: $82958— market buy order

— Stop: $81000

— Target: $97350

Risk per trade: 1% of total equity
Position size: 40% of total equity

RR: 1:6.6

Fear and panic persist, negative sentiment on social media is at extreme levels, and $BTC ETF outflows are massive — $1.9 billion withdrawn over the past week. Gold and other metals have entered a correction phase, and crypto is following them.

I still believe these are good conditions for a long-term long position. This is not a guarantee of an immediate bottom, but the market imbalance has become too obvious — markets tend to move toward equilibrium.

I am not opening new positions for now. It is necessary to wait for a slowdown and stabilization of panic selling. I am also not planning to open shorts — shorting into such a disbalance is extremely dangerous.

On a higher timeframe, the market is still trading within a range and remains heavily oversold.

Investment Idea SHIB

Higher-timeframe convergences, retest of the 0.0068–0.0075 support zone, strong oversold conditions based on indicators.
Market entry: Buy at $0.0073
Target 1: $0.011 — +50%
Target 2: $0.015 — +100%
Position size: 3-5% of the deposit

Fundamental drivers for price growth and adoption
🔹 Shibarium privacy (FHE) — could become a major technological milestone.
🔹 Shib Alpha Layer — improves usability and network throughput.
🔹 AI initiatives — provide a long-term narrative if they materialize into real products.
🔹 Gaming partnerships — expand SHIB use cases beyond pure speculation.
🔹 Token burns — the most direct supply-side driver.
🔹 A broad crypto bull run — increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high-beta assets like $SHIB .

Vedem un dezechilib foarte puternic în potențialele lichidări — pozițiile lungi sunt aproape absente. Continu să mențin o poziție lungă și plănuiesc să adaug la spot.

Trebuie să aștept semnale lungi corespunzătoare, care nu sunt încă complet formate — în special, convergențe pe intervale de timp mai mari.

Presupun că ceea ce rămâne pe piață în acest moment este în principal presiune scurtă: vânzările și ieșirile ETF au fost absorbite. Fundamentele devin din ce în ce mai puternice, proiectele de top sunt încă intacte, iar când cererea revine — ceea ce, pentru mine, este o chestiune de timp — nu va exista ofertă, doar vânzători scurti. Iar închiderea pozițiilor lor înseamnă cumpărare.
$BTC $XRP

$SHIB/USDT Long Set-up

— Support retest, triple confluence on the higher timeframe, strong oversold conditions

— Entry: $0.00758 — market buy order

— Stop: $0.0073

— Target: $0.00904

Risk per trade: 1% of total equity

Position size: 25% of total equity

RR: 1:5.2

$CAKE /USDT Long Set-up

— Intrare: $1.934 (Cumpărare pe piață)
— Stop: $1.874
— Țintă: $2.155

Risc pe tranzacție: 1% din contul total
Dimensiunea poziției: 30% din contul total
RR: 1 : 3.45

Observăm un dezechilibru serios pe piață.

Prețul a spart o formare bearish care era evidentă pentru toată lumea, dar s-a oprit pentru moment. Acest lucru poate fi pur și simplu pentru că nu mai sunt vânzători rămași — și nu mai sunt longs de lichidat. O curățare completă a avut deja loc. Intervalele de timp orare arată convergențe, ceea ce crește probabilitatea ca această mișcare să se transforme într-o capcană de scurt. În acel scenariu, prețul se poate roti înapoi în interval cu un potențial retest al nivelului de $100K.

$BTC În acest moment, cumpărătorul pare slab — dar nu cred că aceasta este slăbiciune. Este absență. Dacă toată lumea este poziționată pe scurt, atunci nu mai sunt vânzători rămași. Piețele caută întotdeauna echilibru.

Sunt poziționat pe partea lungă.

$BTC flag formation, which most often resolves with a continuation of the local trend — in our case, a test of the 78k area. As long as we stay above the 86–87k zone, there is still a chance for a move higher. I’m still in longs with a small position size, as the buyer currently looks weak. We’ll see.

NYSE + Crypto: what’s really happening

There’s a lot of noise around the headline:

“NYSE launches 24/7 stock trading via crypto and blockchain”

Let’s break it down by facts 👇

1️⃣ This is NOT futures and NOT crypto trading

We’re talking about tokenized securities —

📌 stocks and ETFs issued as tokens, backed by real shares

📌 a spot-equivalent of ownership, not a derivative

📌 dividends and shareholder rights are preserved

In other words:

❌ not a price bet

✅ a digital form of ownership

2️⃣ Who is behind it

The project is being developed by the New York Stock Exchange

through its parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

This will be a separate digital platform, not the traditional NYSE market.

3️⃣ Why blockchain and crypto are involved

The platform is expected to include:

— on-chain settlement

— stablecoin-based payments

— 24/7 trading

— fractional shares

👉 This means TradFi is moving onto crypto rails, even without directly buying $BTC

4️⃣ What this means for Crypto (the key part)

🔥 Legitimization of on-chain markets

🔥 Infrastructure-driven demand for stablecoins

🔥 Liquidity flowing through on-chain systems

🔥 Blurring the line between TradFi and DeFi

Crypto stops being “a separate market”

and becomes a financial layer.

5️⃣ Which blockchain will be used?

Nothing has been officially announced yet.

Most likely:

— a permissioned / hybrid blockchain

— EVM compatibility

— integration with public infrastructure

Ethereum matters here not as a DeFi casino,

but as a technology standard.

6️⃣ Timeline (realistic view)

⏳ 2026 — regulatory work and pilot programs

⏳ 2027 — limited institutional launch

This is not a fast release —

it’s a rebuild of market infrastructure.

Bottom line:

❌ not hype and not a rumor

❌ not “crypto replacing stocks”

✅ TradFi officially moving on-chain

Slow process — but irreversible.

$BCH saw an interesting bounce. The 592 level coincides with the daily MA50 and a key horizontal level. There are bullish convergences on higher intraday timeframes, making BCH interesting for a potential long.