Pelin Ay

Ethereum Shows Signs of a Bear Season

I believe it's important to monitor the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (Binance), especially during downtrends. This metric measures action, not expectation. Binance exchange has the highest spot and derivatives liquidity and can be considered the main hub for institutional and whale transactions. Therefore, a large portion of the price movements of large investors occur here. The Taker Ratio can be misleading on smaller exchanges. In short, the Binance Taker Ratio reveals the true price pressure.

In the chart, the Ethereum Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is below 1 (approximately 0.94). This ratio indicates that the selling side is dominant in market orders. Buyers are waiting with limit orders, while sellers have already started to act.

The short and medium-term averages of the SMA(30) and SMA(50) are also below 1. There is no sharp upward breakout. This shows that selling is in a continuous pattern.

With this data, even if the ETH price goes up, every rise will be met with selling. There is a downward trend. Sales are aggressive, purchases are passive; we are experiencing a real bear season. It's not hard to say that this situation will continue for some time. $ETH

Solana a menținut o tendință descendentă din 18 septembrie. Cred că această tendință descendentă va continua până la 68 USD. Acesta este un nivel de suport foarte important. Dacă acest suport este spart, am putea vedea niveluri incredibile. Cred că este prea devreme pentru a începe să cumpăr. $SOL #solana #Sol

Miners Believe Bitcoin's Decline Will Continue

Negative bars have dominated the Bitcoin Netflow Binance chart in recent weeks. Miners are selling, especially as the price falls. In other words, they aren't saying "I'll wait for the price to rise before selling," they're directly moving to liquidation. This indicates they expect the decline to continue. If miners are selling under cost pressure, there's a natural increase in supply in the market. If this supply isn't absorbed by ETF and spot buyers, the price is suppressed, which is currently the case.

The Miner Positions Index is approximately +1.1. This means miners aren't buying, but are consistently selling. This can be considered typical bear market behavior.

This week, the Bitcoin price fell to $75-$76K. Normally, these levels are strong bottom zones. While a reversal in price could occur if the MPI turned negative and Netflow turned positive at this point, this scenario isn't happening. This shows that miners don't see this level as a bottom. Miners are using rebound rallies as selling opportunities.

In this situation, we can generally expect a sharper decline in altcoins than in BTC, and a move in favor of BTC in terms of dominance.

It's no coincidence that Binance stands out by a wide margin in miner netflow data. Binance is still the exchange with the deepest liquidity and the most reliable price discovery, which is why miners prefer it first for selling and risk management. The fact that miner behavior can be read so clearly once again shows that Binance data is still unrivaled in the market. $BTC

A very clean Head and Shoulders (H&S) formation has been completed on the TOTAL chart. The left shoulder represents the early summer peak, the head represents the autumn peak, and the right shoulder represents the December-January period. The neckline is approximately in the 2.83T – 2.75T range. A break below the neckline technically signals a medium-to-long-term downtrend.

Currently, the total market capitalization of #total is around 2.55T. The likelihood of a rebound after the neckline breakout seems weak. The price is unable to retrace above the broken levels (2.75T – 2.83T). Sales are persistent, and rises remain corrections. There are no buyers in the market.

On the chart, 2.55T – 2.53T is the short-term support zone, 2.31T is the last major low and strong support, and 2.17T – 2.05T is the H&S target zone.

In the red dotted scenario I drew, I showed that a weak rebound followed by a test of a lower low is possible. These types of movements generally remain as liquidity accumulation. #altcoins

It would be wrong to expect a rise in the #crypto market until TOTAL rises above 2.83T again. Daily/weekly closes must be above this level for us to have hope for a rise. Without this, any rise will be a bear market reaction. #Total #bitcoin

Whales Aren't Moving to Buy XRP

These two charts show that inflows to Binance are currently stronger and more aggressive than outflows. This alone is bearish market behavior.

As you know, whales and institutional investors use Binance the most because of its stronger liquidity. Therefore, looking at Binance data is critical to reading the market.

On the inflow side, high bands (100K–1M & 1M+) are seen more frequently and with higher volumes. There is outflow, but it is reactive, meaning it comes after the price falls.
Large investors sell their XRP first. Then, when the price falls, they withdraw some from the exchange to balance things out. This has become a cycle since the second half of 2025.

The inflow chart shows sharper and more recurring spikes. Inflows are occurring again before the price can recover. This doesn't mean hodling or buying at the bottom. Whales are either selling or waiting. The buying side is still weak.

The most common mistake here is entering a bullish expectation simply because there's an outflow. In this chart, the outflow increases after the price falls, not while it's rising. So there's a forced exit. There's no permanent supply shortage in the outflow chart. For the chart to turn bullish, we need to see an outflow breakout followed by a price rise.

Whenever inflow increases, the price is suppressed, but when outflow increases, the price can't react.
Reactions are weak and short-lived. This is a situation where buyers are weak and sellers maintain their dominance.

My expectation in this chart is that the main price trend will continue downwards, with rises being short-lived and reactive. I see every upward reaction as a selling opportunity. A new low, or at least another low, seems highly probable. $XRP

Ethereum's decline continues. I expect this drop to continue down to the $1700 level, where it will pause and a rebound might occur. This rise could reach $2100. After that, I think the decline will continue, with the bottom around $900. $ETH

My #Bitcoin analysis, which I've been following for months and which has shown 100% successful performance.

We see that the Quasimodo pattern is working on the chart. The price is moving towards the formation target. From here, I think it will gradually move towards the $81,550 target first, and then $41,500. However, I expect it to remain in a very short wick-like pattern below $50K. I don't think it will close below $50K for a week or a month. This prediction is not something that will happen in a few days or this month; it's a movement I expect to happen within this year. $BTC

Și mergi...
$BTC $UB

ETF INVESTORS ARE LOSING MONEY ON BITCOIN

This chart shows the cumulative net inflows (USD) from BTC ETFs the drawdown from ETFs since the ATH, the BTC price, and the average cost (Realized Price) of ETFs.
Through this chart we can see what institutional money did what the price did, who is losing money and who is making a profit.
After the ETF approval we first experienced a buy on news, sell on reality situation. We witnessed a sharp rise in the Bitcoin price after the ETF approval. Simultaneously ETF inflows accelerated. However, because the price rose so quickly a significant portion of short term ETF investors ended up paying high costs. Therefore, we see that the first major ETF drawdown occurred and the red area on the chart is frequently deepening. In other words ETFs pushed the price up and also increased volatility.
Late 2024 early 2025 cumulative ETF inflows continue to increase, price is volatile, and ETF realized is steadily rising. This means ETFs aren't selling; on the contrary, they're increasing the average
By 2025, the price is approaching new highs. The ETF realized price is seen to be around the 75-80K range. As long as the price remains above this, ETFs will continue to be in net profit. This range will now act as macro support. The price may encounter buyers whenever it reaches this region. Institutional investors will not easily accept prices below this
In the current chart, the price is experiencing a sharp pullback. The ETF drawdown has reached historical lows. However, it's important to note that cumulative ETF inflows are not collapsing. In other words, there is no large scale ETF outflow. Most ETF investors are currently at a loss or in the cost zone. Despite this, they are not panic selling. Because they know this cycle and continue to accumulate BTC. Every fall will be followed by a rise. So, what happen nexts?
If the price permanently falls below the ETF realized price, then real outflows from ETFs will begin. At that point, this chart will generate a bearish signal, which is my expectation in the short-to-medium term.

The support level for gold is $4670. I see this dip as a buying opportunity and I don't think the decline will deepen further. It's an asset with high demand. Once the correction is over, I expect it to reach $6500 in the medium term. $XAU

Silver has fallen to the level I expected. A drop to $86 is possible. If it closes below that daily, the final stop will be $74. I don't think it will stay below this support for very long. #XAGUSD #xag #Silver $XAG

Whales Silently Awaiting Their Moment

A common behavior is clearly visible in the chart. When the Whale Ratio rises, the price reaction occurs in three stages. In the first stage, the price remains strong. Then, as the Whale Ratio peaks, the price generally rises or moves sideways. This is because the selling pressure has not yet been priced in.

In the second stage, selling pressure begins from the peak. If the Whale Ratio remains high, the price enters a sharp correction. This stage usually involves a local top formation.

In the third stage, increased volatility is observed. There are sudden price pullbacks. Danger begins for long positions. The higher and more persistent the Whale Ratio, the sharper the price falls after peaking.

When the Whale Ratio is at its lowest levels, selling pressure is minimized. The price either remains in sideways accumulation or begins an upward trend.

Especially when the Whale Ratio bottoms out, the price lingers sideways for a short time. Then an upward breakout occurs. A low Whale Ratio always prepares the ground for an uptrend.

In light of this information, when we examine the current state of the chart, we see that the Whale Ratio is neither at an extreme high nor at a low point.

We see that the Whale Ratio is above the SMA(100) but within a controllable range. This means that whales are now preferring gradual selling instead of aggressive selling. Therefore, the price is moving horizontally and downwards instead of in full accumulation mode.

With this Whale Ratio level, the probability of a sharp dump is low, but the probability of a rise is also low. In other words, rises will remain as reaction rallies, while falls will follow a horizontal trend. For this pattern to change, the Whale Ratio needs to experience a sharp rise or fall. This doesn't seem very likely at the moment, given the presence of institutional investors.

The determining factor will be which direction the Whale Ratio breaks from here. $BTC

Ethereum has ended its intermediate uptrend and the main direction continues downwards. I think this decline will continue down to $1700. Because of the $ETH ETF approval, the declines are not sharp. They are mostly continuing as a horizontal decline. Therefore, I think there will be a gradual decline for #ETH.

#Ethereum Supports:
$2430
$2120
$1762

Nu te lăsa înșelat de creșterea viitoare a XRP

Logica principală a acestui grafic este de a arăta cât de multă Cotă de Ofertă pe Schimb (ESS) XRP este deținută pe burse. Dacă ESS crește, înseamnă că XRP intră pe bursă;
dacă ESS scade, înseamnă că XRP părăsește bursa. Graficul arată o corelație inversă între ESS și preț.

În mod specific, între februarie și aprilie 2025, ESS a arătat o scădere constantă. Prețul s-a mișcat inițial lateral, apoi a crescut brusc. Retragerea ofertei de pe bursă a determinat o reacție întârziată a prețului.

Între iulie și septembrie 2025, dimpotrivă, ESS a crescut. În timp ce prețul a arătat o volatilitate ridicată, o formare de vârf a fost urmată de o scădere.

Octombrie 2025 este foarte critic. După o scădere bruscă a ESS, prețul a experimentat o scădere abruptă. Este important să interpretăm scăderea ESS nu ca o vânzare panicardă, ci ca o drenare simultană a lichidității împreună cu scăderea prețului.

Între noiembrie și decembrie 2025, lipsa volumului pe piață a afectat de asemenea XRP. ESS a rămas la niveluri foarte scăzute, mișcându-se lateral, iar prețul a scăzut lent.

În prezent, ESS se află într-o zonă de minim, iar SMA(30), SMA(50) și SMA(100) sunt deasupra prețului. Acest lucru înseamnă că partea de ofertă este acum stabilă, cu prețul în jur de $1.9. Prețul reacționează în continuare slab la ESS. Acest model a cauzat în general ca prețul să crească cu o întârziere în trecut. Când ESS a rămas la un minim timp de 2-4 săptămâni, prețul a experimentat mai întâi o revenire, apoi a început o tendință. Ne aflăm în prezent la începutul aceleași faze, dar spre deosebire de trecut, nu există confirmare de volum. Prin urmare, creșterea ar putea rămâne o revenire. $XRP

Am spus timp de luni că Bitcoin a intrat într-o piață bearish. Ținta a fost $98K, un nivel Quasimodo. Lichiditatea a fost luată de acolo și continuă tendința principală descendentă. #BTC
#bitcoin Niveluri de suport în ordinea:
$81500
$72750
$64800

Fundamentul pieței bearish $BTC ar putea fi în jur de $50K, dar o scădere până la $41K este posibilă.

Bitcoin dominance continues its upward trend. We are seeing this trend during the bear season.

Last week, I mentioned that the $97950 resistance level could be the peak for Bitcoin and initiate a decline. And that's exactly what happened. Throughout 2025, the money flowing out of Bitcoin didn't flow into altcoins. I believe this will continue until the rise in gold and silver ends.

How Will Japan's Interest Rate Decision Affect Bitcoin?

We are in one of the most critical weeks for Bitcoin. Because Japan's interest rate decision will be announced on January 23rd. If an interest rate hike as expected occurs, Bitcoin may face selling pressure.

I have frequently stated that the $98K resistance level is important for the Bitcoin price. Because if there is a reversal from this resistance, the price will enter a downward trend without forming a new peak. Indeed, the price reversed from the $97950 level. What we need to pay attention to now is the $88450 trend. If the $BTC price operates below this trend, I will consider the main downtrend to have begun. This decline may continue horizontally-downwards to the $69K support level, which I have indicated with the blue horizontal line on the chart.

If there is an upward reversal from this trend, the price will go to the $102K-$110K range for the last time and continue into the bear market from there. The bottom of the bear market could be the $49K-$52K support level, which I have marked with the blue rising trend line on the chart, which has been in place since 2018. Hold on tight, the fall is coming. $BTC

Ar putea Ethereum să fie pe cale să colapseze?

Graficul Prețului & Volumului Binance arată o structură macroeconomică care este încă într-o tendință orizontală la vârful său. Deși minimele mai mari au fost menținute din minimele din 2020, nu a existat o nouă formare a vârfului în ultimele luni. Cu mișcarea recentă, a avut loc o respingere bruscă din regiunea de $4.8K, iar prețul s-a retras acum la aproximativ $2.9K. structurile EMA(7), EMA(14) și EMA(30) semnalează o corecție pe termen scurt. Istoric, aceste tipuri de corecții creează o nouă zonă de acumulare fără a rupe tendința principală.

Pe graficul CVD al Spot Taker (90 de zile), barele Dominante de Vânzare Taker (roșu) sunt proeminente în regiunea actuală. Cu toate acestea, aceste perioade roșii au fost adesea observate în regiuni de fund sau pre-fund în trecut. În special în exemplele din 2021, 2023 și 2024, în timp ce vânzările Taker au crescut, prețul a rămas orizontal o perioadă înainte de a rupe în sus. Acum există vânzători agresivi, dar aceste vânzări nu împing încă prețul sub un nou minim major. Prin urmare, este foarte probabil că ne aflăm într-o perioadă pre-fund.

Având în vedere aceste două grafice, pot spune că prețul se află într-o zonă de acumulare și o ruptură este iminentă.

Privind asemănările istorice bazate pe aceste două grafice, după astfel de perioade, prețul în general se mișcă mai întâi orizontal și apoi face o ruptură bruscă în jos. Pe scurt, prețul Ethereum ar putea fi în ultima întindere înainte de un colaps. $ETH

One of the most important charts for determining market direction is always the #Ethereum chart.

$ETH has been maintaining its horizontal-upward trend for weeks, while also holding onto its intermediate trend support. $2955 is a very important support. A close below this support would indicate that the trend support break is not a trap, and the main trend direction of decline would continue.

The liquidation at the falling trend resistance appears to have been taken, and the direction it should now go is towards the support levels below. #ETH One of the most important charts for determining market direction is always the #Ethereum chart.

$ETH has been maintaining its horizontal-upward trend for weeks, while also holding onto its intermediate trend support. $2955 is a very important support. A close below this support would indicate that the trend support break is not a trap, and the main trend direction of decline would continue.

The liquidation at the falling trend resistance appears to have been taken, and the direction it should now go is towards the support levels below. #ETH

We are in one of the most critical weeks for Bitcoin.

I've been sharing this formation for Bitcoin for perhaps months now, and I can say it's been working well.

I've frequently stated that the $98K resistance is important for the #bitcoin price. Because if there's a reversal from this resistance, the formation will be considered to have worked like Quasimodo. The price reversed downwards from $97950. What I need to pay attention to now is the $88450 trend. If the $BTC price works below this trend, I will consider the formation target to have been reached and the main downtrend to have begun.

If there's an upward reversal from this trend, the price will go to the $102K-$110K range one last time and continue into the bear market from there.

The Japanese interest rate announcement on Friday will clarify this situation. Therefore, I will update this analysis again on Friday. #BTC