RISKK TAKER

Gold and silver have mounted a sharp and convincing rebound in early February 2026, recovering much of the ground lost during one of the most severe corrections in recent memory. Following a historic sell-off that erased over 20% from gold's peak and more than 40% from silver's in just days, prices have surged back with conviction, driven by renewed safe-haven demand, bargain hunting, stabilizing dollar dynamics, and persistent underlying fundamentals.
As of February 4, 2026, spot gold trades around $5,050–$5,070 per ounce, up roughly 2–3% on the day and extending gains from the prior session's 5–6% jump. Silver has outperformed, climbing to approximately $89–$91 per ounce with intraday advances of 5–8%, pushing toward key psychological resistance near $90–$95.This reversal stands in stark contrast to the late-January crash. Gold had peaked near $5,594–$5,600, propelled by inflation concerns, central bank buying, and geopolitical risks, before tumbling to a low of $4,403 on February 2. Silver, peaking at $121.99, suffered an even more brutal decline—marked by a single-day 27–31% drop on January 30, its worst since 1980—bottoming around $71.

The trigger appeared tied to market interpretations of U.S. policy shifts, particularly President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, which raised expectations of sustained higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, pressuring non-yielding assets. Profit-taking after parabolic rallies amplified the move, creating thin liquidity and forced liquidations. The rebound's mechanics reveal multiple supportive layers.

First, technical bargain hunting dominated early recovery phases: after such steep drops, oversold conditions (RSI dipping below 30) invited aggressive dip buyers and short covering. Volumes remained elevated, indicating conviction rather than fleeting speculation.

Second, the dollar's stabilization post-rally provided breathing room—precious metals priced in USD benefit from any pause in dollar strength, attracting international demand. Third, geopolitical flare-ups, including renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, reignited safe-haven flows. With U.S. government shutdown risks lingering and no key jobs data this week due to the partial closure, uncertainty persists, reinforcing metals' hedge role. Fundamentally, little has changed to undermine the bull case.

Central banks continue aggressive accumulation—J.P. Morgan projects 800 metric tons of gold purchases in 2026 as part of a broader "debasement trade" favoring real assets amid fiat currency concerns. Emerging market diversification from the dollar supports this trend. Gold's year-to-date performance remains robust at +75%, even after the correction, underscoring resilience. Silver's dual nature amplifies its moves: industrial demand from solar panels, EVs, and electronics drives a sixth consecutive year of supply deficits, creating structural upward pressure. This explains silver's sharper rebounds—its beta to gold often exceeds 2x during volatile periods. Technically, the recovery has reclaimed critical levels.

$XAU has pushed back above $5,000 (a major psychological pivot), with support now at $4,900–$4,950 (near the 20-day EMA) and resistance at $5,120–$5,200. A sustained close above $5,200 would signal stronger bullish momentum toward prior highs. Silver holds support at $86–$88, with $90 as a pivotal level; breaking $95–$100 could trigger further short squeezes given thin inventories and high speculative interest. The gold-silver ratio has compressed from recent peaks around 58 toward 56, reflecting silver's relative strength—a classic sign in precious metals cycles.Analyst forecasts remain predominantly bullish for the medium to long term, viewing the correction as a healthy reset rather than a trend reversal. J.P. Morgan targets $6,300 for gold by year-end 2026, with UBS at $6,200 and Deutsche Bank/Societe Generale around $6,000.

Silver projections range higher in relative terms, with some calling for $125 amid ongoing deficits, and extreme scenarios pushing toward $135–$300 if industrial demand accelerates unchecked. ING Bank analysts emphasize that the macro narrative—safe-haven demand, inflation persistence, and real-asset rotation—remains intact.Risks, however, are elevated. Volatility concerns linger: thin liquidity has amplified both the crash and rebound, raising the potential for sharp profit-taking or renewed selling if dollar strength resumes or risk appetite improves broadly.

Overcrowding in the trade could lead to another leg down, particularly if leveraged positions unwind. Short-term traders face wide intraday swings, while longer-term holders benefit from the structural tailwinds.In analytical terms, this rebound confirms the precious metals bull market's durability. The swift recovery from extreme oversold levels, combined with unchanged drivers like central bank demand and supply constraints, suggests the correction was positioning-driven rather than fundamentally bearish. While near-term caution is warranted amid volatility, the path of least resistance appears higher, with gold eyeing $5,500+ retests and silver potentially leading further upside in any continued risk-off environment.

Monitoring dollar moves, geopolitical headlines, and key technical pivots will determine whether this marks the resumption of the larger uptrend or merely a volatile dead-cat bounce.

#GOLD #Silver

Salut, ai observat cum argintul este brusc subiectul de discuție în lumea financiară? Nu este vorba doar despre metalul strălucitor în sine—ci despre ETF-urile legate de acesta care fac valuri. Chiar acum, la începutul lunii februarie 2026, fondurile tranzacționate pe bază de argint (ETFs) precum SLV conduc în volumele de tranzacționare pre-market, depășind chiar și acțiunile mari și alte ETF-uri. Aceasta nu este o simplă întâmplare; este o tendință care s-a construit din late ianuarie și care a stârnit interesul experților precum Eric Balchunas de la Bloomberg Intelligence cu privire la ceea ce înseamnă pentru investitori și pentru economia mai largă.