FATIMA AL ZEHRA
crypto expert - trader - sharing market insights‚ trends | trade setups are my personal opinions | BTC ETH Holder | #DYOR
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HUGE: Congress will reportedly see the full, uncensored Epstein files beginning next week.
The $75,000 zone we highlighted earlier was a very crucial level for Bitcoin.
The moment BTC lost that weekly support, the downside accelerated fast. Within just a few days, price tapped the $60,000 zone, exactly the range we had highlighted.
Once $75K broke, the higher high and higher low structure on the bigger timeframe failed. That structure break is what opened the door for this straight move lower.
Now Bitcoin is trading below both the 20W and 50W moving averages, which keeps momentum weak on the weekly timeframe.
As long as BTC stays below these MA, upside remains capped and rallies will act as relief bounces, not trend reversals.
On the downside, the next major area sits around the MA200 and historical cycle support zone around $50K.
That zone has historically acted as the final reset area during deep cycle corrections.
So from here the structure is simple:
• Reclaim $75K and then $100K → structure repair begins
• Stay below key MAs → risk of deeper move toward $50K remains
The moment BTC lost that weekly support, the downside accelerated fast. Within just a few days, price tapped the $60,000 zone, exactly the range we had highlighted.
Once $75K broke, the higher high and higher low structure on the bigger timeframe failed. That structure break is what opened the door for this straight move lower.
Now Bitcoin is trading below both the 20W and 50W moving averages, which keeps momentum weak on the weekly timeframe.
As long as BTC stays below these MA, upside remains capped and rallies will act as relief bounces, not trend reversals.
On the downside, the next major area sits around the MA200 and historical cycle support zone around $50K.
That zone has historically acted as the final reset area during deep cycle corrections.
So from here the structure is simple:
• Reclaim $75K and then $100K → structure repair begins
• Stay below key MAs → risk of deeper move toward $50K remains
🚨The whale who got liquidated for $250 MILLION last week is depositing BTC on exchanges.
Just now, he has deposited 5,000 BTC worth $351 million to Binance.
Just now, he has deposited 5,000 BTC worth $351 million to Binance.
THIS IS WHY BITCOIN DUMPED NON STOP FROM $126,000 TO $60,000.
Bitcoin has now crashed -53% in just 120 days without any major negative news or event and this is not normal.
Macro pressure plays a role, but it’s not the main reason Bitcoin keeps dumping. The real driver is something much bigger that most people aren’t talking about yet.
Bitcoin’s original valuation model was built on the idea that supply is fixed at 21 million coins and that price moves based on real buying and selling of those coins. In the early cycles, this was mostly true. But today, that structure has changed.
A large share of Bitcoin trading activity now happens through synthetic markets rather than spot markets.
This includes:
• Futures contracts
• Perpetual swaps
• Options markets
• ETFs
• Prime broker lending
• Wrapped BTC
• Structured products
All of these allow exposure to Bitcoin’s price without requiring actual Bitcoin to move on chain. This changes how price is discovered because now selling pressure can come from derivative positioning rather than real holders selling coins.
For example:
If institutions open large short positions in futures markets, price can fall even if no spot Bitcoin is sold.
If leveraged long traders get liquidated, forced selling happens through derivatives, accelerating downside moves. This creates cascade effects where liquidations drive price, not spot supply.
That is why recent sell offs look very structured. You see long liquidation waves, funding flips negative, open interest collapses, all signs that derivatives positioning is driving the move.
So while Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed, the effective tradable supply influencing price has expanded through synthetic exposure.
Price today reacts to leverage, hedging flows, and positioning, not just spot demand.
Adding to this, there are other factors too driving the current dump.
GLOBAL ASSET SELL-OFF
Right now, selling is not isolated to crypto. Stocks are declining. Gold and silver have seen volatility. Risk assets across markets are correcting.
When global markets move into risk-off mode, capital exits high-risk assets first and crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve. So Bitcoin reacts more aggressively to global sell offs.
MACRO UNCERTAINTY & GEOPOLITICAL RISK
Tensions around global conflicts, especially U.S.–Iran developments, are creating uncertainty.
Whenever geopolitical risk rises, supply chain risks increase, and markets shift toward defensive positioning. That environment is not supportive for risk assets.
FED LIQUIDITY EXPECTATIONS
Markets had been pricing a more dovish liquidity backdrop. But expectations around future policy leadership and liquidity stance have shifted.
If investors believe future Fed policy will be tighter on liquidity even if rates eventually fall, risk assets reprice lower.
ECONOMIC DATA WEAKNESS
Recent economic indicators job market trends, housing demand, credit stress are pointing toward slowing growth conditions. When recession fears rise, markets derisk.
Crypto, being the most volatile asset class, sees outsized downside during those transitions.
STRUCTURED SELLING VS CAPITULATION
Another important observation:
This sell off does not look like panic capitulation. It looks structured.
Consecutive red candles, controlled downside moves, and derivative driven liquidations suggest large entities reducing exposure, not retail panic selling.
When institutional positioning unwinds, it suppresses bounce attempts because dip buyers wait for stability before re-entering.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
It is a combination of:
• Derivatives driven price discovery
• Synthetic supply exposure
• Global risk-off flows
• Liquidity expectation shifts
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Weak macro data
• Institutional positioning unwind
Until these pressures stabilize, relief rallies can happen, but sustained upside becomes harder.
Macro pressure plays a role, but it’s not the main reason Bitcoin keeps dumping. The real driver is something much bigger that most people aren’t talking about yet.
Bitcoin’s original valuation model was built on the idea that supply is fixed at 21 million coins and that price moves based on real buying and selling of those coins. In the early cycles, this was mostly true. But today, that structure has changed.
A large share of Bitcoin trading activity now happens through synthetic markets rather than spot markets.
This includes:
• Futures contracts
• Perpetual swaps
• Options markets
• ETFs
• Prime broker lending
• Wrapped BTC
• Structured products
All of these allow exposure to Bitcoin’s price without requiring actual Bitcoin to move on chain. This changes how price is discovered because now selling pressure can come from derivative positioning rather than real holders selling coins.
For example:
If institutions open large short positions in futures markets, price can fall even if no spot Bitcoin is sold.
If leveraged long traders get liquidated, forced selling happens through derivatives, accelerating downside moves. This creates cascade effects where liquidations drive price, not spot supply.
That is why recent sell offs look very structured. You see long liquidation waves, funding flips negative, open interest collapses, all signs that derivatives positioning is driving the move.
So while Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed, the effective tradable supply influencing price has expanded through synthetic exposure.
Price today reacts to leverage, hedging flows, and positioning, not just spot demand.
Adding to this, there are other factors too driving the current dump.
GLOBAL ASSET SELL-OFF
Right now, selling is not isolated to crypto. Stocks are declining. Gold and silver have seen volatility. Risk assets across markets are correcting.
When global markets move into risk-off mode, capital exits high-risk assets first and crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve. So Bitcoin reacts more aggressively to global sell offs.
MACRO UNCERTAINTY & GEOPOLITICAL RISK
Tensions around global conflicts, especially U.S.–Iran developments, are creating uncertainty.
Whenever geopolitical risk rises, supply chain risks increase, and markets shift toward defensive positioning. That environment is not supportive for risk assets.
FED LIQUIDITY EXPECTATIONS
Markets had been pricing a more dovish liquidity backdrop. But expectations around future policy leadership and liquidity stance have shifted.
If investors believe future Fed policy will be tighter on liquidity even if rates eventually fall, risk assets reprice lower.
ECONOMIC DATA WEAKNESS
Recent economic indicators job market trends, housing demand, credit stress are pointing toward slowing growth conditions. When recession fears rise, markets derisk.
Crypto, being the most volatile asset class, sees outsized downside during those transitions.
STRUCTURED SELLING VS CAPITULATION
Another important observation:
This sell off does not look like panic capitulation. It looks structured.
Consecutive red candles, controlled downside moves, and derivative driven liquidations suggest large entities reducing exposure, not retail panic selling.
When institutional positioning unwinds, it suppresses bounce attempts because dip buyers wait for stability before re-entering.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
It is a combination of:
• Derivatives driven price discovery
• Synthetic supply exposure
• Global risk-off flows
• Liquidity expectation shifts
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Weak macro data
• Institutional positioning unwind
Until these pressures stabilize, relief rallies can happen, but sustained upside becomes harder.
💥 BREAKING
TRUMP SAID S&P 500 WILL HIT 100,000 POINTS
TRUMP SAID S&P 500 WILL HIT 100,000 POINTS
💥BREAKING:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump signs order allowing US to impose additional 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump signs order allowing US to impose additional 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $1.20 trillion added to the US stock market today.
🔥 Se îndreaptă Bitcoin spre 100.000 $?
Cele mai recente informații de piață și predicții de cronologie
Bitcoin testează din nou răbdarea investitorilor.
După o corecție brutală de la maximele ciclului său, BTC se tranzacționează mult sub așteptări — iar cea mai mare întrebare pe mintea tuturor este simplă:
👉 Va reveni Bitcoin la 100.000 $?
👉 Și cât timp ar putea dura în mod realist?
Să descompunem clar — fără hype, fără frică.
📉 Realitatea actuală a pieței
Bitcoin a suferit recent o corecție profundă, tragând întreaga piață de criptomonede cu el.
Ce vedem acum:
Bitcoin testează din nou răbdarea investitorilor.
După o corecție brutală de la maximele ciclului său, BTC se tranzacționează mult sub așteptări — iar cea mai mare întrebare pe mintea tuturor este simplă:
👉 Va reveni Bitcoin la 100.000 $?
👉 Și cât timp ar putea dura în mod realist?
Să descompunem clar — fără hype, fără frică.
📉 Realitatea actuală a pieței
Bitcoin a suferit recent o corecție profundă, tragând întreaga piață de criptomonede cu el.
Ce vedem acum:
💥BREAKING:
🇺🇸 Aprobatul lui Trump în rândul alegătorilor albi devine negativ pentru prima dată în președinția sa.
🇺🇸 Aprobatul lui Trump în rândul alegătorilor albi devine negativ pentru prima dată în președinția sa.
JUST IN: Bitcoin reclaims $71,000, rising over 13% today.
BREAKING: Over $304 billion has been added to the crypto market in the last 20 hours.
Bitcoin is up 17% and has pumped $10,000 from its lows, reclaiming $70,000.
ETH surged 18% and reclaimed $2,000 from lows of $1,750.
$550 million in shorts were liquidated.
Bitcoin is up 17% and has pumped $10,000 from its lows, reclaiming $70,000.
ETH surged 18% and reclaimed $2,000 from lows of $1,750.
$550 million in shorts were liquidated.
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Russell 2000 este în creștere cu 3,10% astăzi, adăugând aproape 100 de miliarde de dolari la capitalizarea sa de piață. S-a recuperat complet de la scăderea de ieri și a devenit verde pe săptămână.
Aceasta arată că investitorii alocă capital în active cu risc mai mare, motiv pentru care acțiunile cu capitalizare mică reacționează mai repede decât cele cu capitalizare mare.
Observăm o tendință similară în cripto:
Bitcoin a scăzut cu aproape 35% în ultimele 3 săptămâni, scăzând de la 90.000 $ la aproximativ 60.000 $. Dar în aceeași perioadă, perechile Alt/BTC au crescut cu aproximativ 11%, arătând puterea activelor cu beta mai mare chiar și în timp ce Bitcoin este slab.
Următoarele 3–4 luni vor fi interesante de urmărit pentru tendințele mai ample de rotație a banilor. Dacă ISM continuă să fie peste 52, va susține cel mai mult activele cu risc.
Aceasta arată că investitorii alocă capital în active cu risc mai mare, motiv pentru care acțiunile cu capitalizare mică reacționează mai repede decât cele cu capitalizare mare.
Observăm o tendință similară în cripto:
Bitcoin a scăzut cu aproape 35% în ultimele 3 săptămâni, scăzând de la 90.000 $ la aproximativ 60.000 $. Dar în aceeași perioadă, perechile Alt/BTC au crescut cu aproximativ 11%, arătând puterea activelor cu beta mai mare chiar și în timp ce Bitcoin este slab.
Următoarele 3–4 luni vor fi interesante de urmărit pentru tendințele mai ample de rotație a banilor. Dacă ISM continuă să fie peste 52, va susține cel mai mult activele cu risc.
The US is heavily selling Bitcoin here.
BREAKING:
💵 $500 Million USDC just minted.
💵 $500 Million USDC just minted.
💥ȘTIRI DE ULTIMĂ ORĂ:
Iranul refuză să încheie îmbogățirea nucleară în discuții.
Iranul refuză să încheie îmbogățirea nucleară în discuții.
GOLD AND SILVER ARE RECOVERING
Gold is now up 5.8% from today’s low, adding roughly $1.87 trillion back to its market cap.
Silver is up 18% from today’s low, adding about $672 billion in market value.
Markets reacting to easing geopolitical tensions, as rumors about fresh U.S.–Iran talks are now circulating.
Gold is now up 5.8% from today’s low, adding roughly $1.87 trillion back to its market cap.
Silver is up 18% from today’s low, adding about $672 billion in market value.
Markets reacting to easing geopolitical tensions, as rumors about fresh U.S.–Iran talks are now circulating.
Bitcoin is back above $69,000.
BREAKING:
Vitalik a vândut $14,800,000 în valoare de ETH în ultimele 4 zile.
Vitalik a vândut $14,800,000 în valoare de ETH în ultimele 4 zile.
2013: Explozia Bitcoin
$260 → $70
2014: Colapsul Mt. Gox
$1,000 → $400
2018: Iarna Crypto
$19,800 → $3,200
2020: Prăbușirea Pieței COVID-19
$9,100 → $4,000
2021: China Mining & Acțiuni Regulatorii
$58,000 → $30,000
2022: Colapsul Luna și FTX
$69,000 → $15,000
2025: Războiul Tarifelor și 10/10 Prăbușirea
$126,000 → $84,000
2026: Dosarul Epstein și Vânzarea Globală
$88,000 → $60,000
Și Bitcoin va continua să imprime amintiri pe care le putem întotdeauna să ne amintim în vremuri ca acestea.
$260 → $70
2014: Colapsul Mt. Gox
$1,000 → $400
2018: Iarna Crypto
$19,800 → $3,200
2020: Prăbușirea Pieței COVID-19
$9,100 → $4,000
2021: China Mining & Acțiuni Regulatorii
$58,000 → $30,000
2022: Colapsul Luna și FTX
$69,000 → $15,000
2025: Războiul Tarifelor și 10/10 Prăbușirea
$126,000 → $84,000
2026: Dosarul Epstein și Vânzarea Globală
$88,000 → $60,000
Și Bitcoin va continua să imprime amintiri pe care le putem întotdeauna să ne amintim în vremuri ca acestea.
🚨 SE AFLĂ ECONOMIA SUA ÎNTR-O RECESIUNE?
Mai multe puncte de date încep acum să arate slăbiciune în economia SUA.
Și cel mai mare semnal de alarmă este piața muncii, deoarece locurile de muncă de obicei slăbesc înainte ca economia să încetinească oficial.
Chiar acum, datele despre locuri de muncă se află într-o slăbire alarmantă.
În ianuarie 2026, angajatorii din SUA au anunțat 108,435 de concedieri, cel mai mare număr de tăieri de locuri de muncă din ianuarie din 2009, când SUA se afla într-o recesiune.
Aceasta nu este o restructurare sezonieră normală. Acesta este companiile care se pregătesc pentru o creștere mai slabă în viitor. Cererile săptămânale de șomaj au început, de asemenea, să crească din nou, sărind recent la 231,000, peste așteptări.
Și cel mai mare semnal de alarmă este piața muncii, deoarece locurile de muncă de obicei slăbesc înainte ca economia să încetinească oficial.
Chiar acum, datele despre locuri de muncă se află într-o slăbire alarmantă.
În ianuarie 2026, angajatorii din SUA au anunțat 108,435 de concedieri, cel mai mare număr de tăieri de locuri de muncă din ianuarie din 2009, când SUA se afla într-o recesiune.
Aceasta nu este o restructurare sezonieră normală. Acesta este companiile care se pregătesc pentru o creștere mai slabă în viitor. Cererile săptămânale de șomaj au început, de asemenea, să crească din nou, sărind recent la 231,000, peste așteptări.
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