Web3 Daily Research

Date: January 21, 2026
Topic: Digital Asset Market Strategy & Outlook
Author: Kong Ming Ahn - Senior Market Strategist at Web3 Daily Research
The digital asset market currently stands at a historical inflection point. Following the volatility and cleansing phases of the 2022-2024 cycle, we are now witnessing a "perfect storm" - a convergence of macroeconomic shifts, micro market dynamics, and unprecedented geopolitical calculations. The valuation of Bitcoin at $100,000 is no longer the speculative fantasy of early adopters, rather, it is becoming a mathematical inevitability based on hard data.
Below is a comprehensive analysis of the six structural pillars supporting this high-conviction thesis.
1. The Erosion of Fiat Hegemony: The Bell Tolls
To understand the trajectory of Bitcoin, one must first analyze the denominator: Fiat currency. The global financial system is witnessing a severe erosion of confidence in sovereign currencies. Persistent inflation in major economies, coupled with rapid devaluation in emerging markets, has forced capital to seek unconfiscatable shelter.
Bitcoin, with its immutable capped supply of 21 million units, is fulfilling its mandate as "Digital Gold" with increasing efficiency. As the purchasing power of the USD, EUR, and JPY declines, the nominal value of BTC denominated in these currencies must mathematically rise. We are not merely seeing Bitcoin appreciate, we are witnessing the repricing of fiat currencies against the hardest asset in existence.
However, the natural decay of fiat currency is only the backdrop. The active monetary policies of global superpowers act as the primary catalyst.
2. The $8 Billion "Signal" and the Return of Quantitative Easing (QE)
One of the most potent bullish drivers is the resurgence of liquidity injection by the United States.
Deconstructing the $8 Billion Injection:
Recently, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury executed Open Market Operations, effectively injecting a net $8 billion into the banking system over a short window.
The Significance: While $8 billion may seem negligible relative to total market capitalization, its signaling value is immense. It indicates that the policy of Quantitative Tightening has hit the structural limit of the economy. The Fed was forced to provide liquidity to prevent a systemic seize up in the commercial banking sector.The Impact: Historically, the moment the Fed pivots from tightening to easing, risk assets specifically Bitcoin act as the primary sponge for this excess liquidity.
Forecasting the QE Pivot:
Given the record levels of U.S. national debt and the crushing weight of interest payments, it is highly probable that the U.S. will enter a new, aggressive cycle of Quantitative Easing in 2026.
The Scenario: To service debt and stimulate a slowing economy, expanding the M2 money supply is the path of least political resistance.The Outlook: Once the "money printer" resumes full capacity, this liquidity tide will lift BTC past all previous resistance levels, establishing $100,000 not as a ceiling, but as a new support floor.
While Western liquidity provides the fuel, a silent but coordinated infrastructure build-out in the East is constructing the engine.
3. Sovereign Strategy: Domestic Exchanges and the "Invisible Consensus"
A new geopolitical trend is emerging: The nationalization or centralized control of crypto gateways.
Case Study: Vietnam’s Regulatory Pivot
Vietnam consistently ranked among the top nations for crypto adoption has strategically licensed five domestic exchanges. This is not merely for taxation, it is a strategic maneuver to build national financial infrastructure.
Deep Dive: The "Dam Burst" Effect on Local Liquidity - VND
The licensing of these five entities represents a massive unlocking of capital:
The Bank Backed Exchange: Likely integrated directly into banking apps, allowing friction-free BTC purchases for the general public.The Brokerage Arm: Legitimizng crypto as an asset class alongside equities for sophisticated investors.The Fintech Super App: Bringing crypto to the masses via ubiquitous wallets (e.g., Onus equivalents), driving volume through sheer user count.The Localized Global Giant: A joint venture (e.g., with Binance) ensuring deep liquidity and compliance.The Sovereign Pilot: A state monitored sandbox for CBDC and BTC reserves.
Implication: This legitimizes the "mattress money" (cash savings) held by the population and allows corporate treasuries to legally hedge against inflation using BTC. The liquidity flow from VND to BTC will be instant and massive.
The "Invisible Consensus" Theory:
There is a compelling argument that nations are engaging in an implicit consensus to suppress prices temporarily or utilize market FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) to facilitate Strategic Accumulation.
Rationale: Before opening the floodgates of domestic exchanges, sovereign entities and state backed institutions must secure their Bitcoin Reserves.Mechanism: If prices rise too quickly, these national exchanges would face a liquidity crisis. Thus, we see a "coiled spring" effect: prices are compressed to allow smart money to accumulate. Once reserves are sufficient, the suppression ends, and price discovery explodes upward.
This state level adoption aligns perfectly with the insights of the industry's most influential figures.
4. The CZ Prophecy and the Super Cycle Thesis
Changpeng Zhao, despite past regulatory hurdles, remains a visionary whose market reads are rarely incorrect.
The Argument: CZ is rarely wrong on macro trends.
CZ correctly predicted the explosion of DeFi, NFTs, and the entry of Wall Street giants like BlackRock. Recently, he has hinted at an approaching "Super Cycle."
Unlike the traditional 4 years cycle based on the Halving, a Super Cycle is driven by sovereign level adoption and the structural decay of TradFi.When a figure with access to the world's most comprehensive user data sets signals optimism, it is likely based on real time on chain capital flows, not mere sentiment.
Executive optimism is valuable, but the allocation of human capital provides the most tangible proof of growth.
5. Human Capital: The Leading Indicator of Sector Expansion
We must look at the labor market to see the true health of the industry.
2022-2023 (The Bear Market): Headlines were dominated by layoffs at Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance. This marked the market bottom.Current State: We are witnessing an aggressive hiring spree. Binance, Web3 protocols, Layer-2 scaling solutions, and even traditional banks are competing for blockchain talent.
Analysis: Hiring is expensive and time consuming. Corporations only undertake this when they forecast significant revenue growth in the immediate future (6-12 months). This "infrastructure build out" is the strongest fundamental evidence that the industry is preparing for Mass Adoption.
Finally, when fundamental factors align with technical indicators, the probability of a breakout increases exponentially.
6. Technical Confluence: The "Golden" Trendline (Since Nov 17, 2025)
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's Price Action is confirming the fundamental thesis.
Since November 17, 2025, Bitcoin has respected a highly robust ascending trendline.
Sustainable Slope: The angle of ascent is neither parabolic (unsustainable) nor flat. It indicates healthy, organic demand that is systematically absorbing sell-side pressure.Higher Lows: The "Bulls" are successfully defending key support levels. Every test of this trend line is met with a surge in volume, confirming strong buyer interest.Projection: If this structure holds through Q1 2026, the technical confluence will propel BTC through its previous ATH, targeting the $100,000 - $120,000 zone in the near term.
Conclusion: The Great Wealth Transfer
Synthesizing these factors from macro liquidity (QE) to micro growth (hiring) and geopolitical maneuvering (sovereign exchanges) it is evident that Bitcoin is at the foothills of a parabolic move.
The $100,000 mark is more than a psychological barrier, it represents the validation of Bitcoin as a global reserve asset. Nations are accumulating, corporations are staffing up, and central banks are warming up the printing presses. The question for investors is no longer if Bitcoin will reach this valuation, but rather, "How much Bitcoin do you have?" when the inevitable occurs.
#BTC100kNext?

Am analizat acest lucru în ultimele 24 de ore și acesta este FOARTE RĂU.
Producția mondială de argint: ~800M uncii
BofA & Citi shorts: 4.4 MILIARDE
Am petrecut două decenii în macro, și am crezut că am văzut totul.
AM FOST GREȘIT.
Dacă argintul continuă să crească, cele mai mari bănci din America se vor prăbuși.
Iată ce am descoperit:
Ieri, argintul a atins 92 de dolari. Apoi a scăzut cu peste 6% în câteva minute, a fost pompat din nou până la aproximativ 91 de dolari și acum se prăbușește din nou.
Am petrecut 20 de ani în aceste piețe. Majoritatea oamenilor văd o corecție normală, dar eu văd o TRAP.