奔跑财经-FinaceRun

Strategy CEO: Bitcoin needs to drop to $8,000 and stay there for five years to trigger a debt crisis

During the fourth quarter earnings call held on Thursday, Strategy CEO Phong Le stated that the company's balance sheet remains robust at this stage.

Phong Le pointed out that only if the price of Bitcoin drops to $8,000 and maintains that price level for five to six years will it pose a substantial threat to the company's ability to repay convertible debt.

This statement is intended to show investors that despite the current market downturn, the company's balance sheet has a significant safety margin before triggering a liquidity crisis.

When elaborating on the conditions that would trigger a crisis, Phong Le said that only under extreme conditions, namely a 90% drop in Bitcoin to $8,000, would the company be unable to use Bitcoin reserves to repay convertible bonds, at which point it would consider restructuring, issuing new shares, or taking on debt.

According to the company's financial report, Strategy posted a net loss of $12.4 billion in the fourth quarter, primarily due to the price of Bitcoin falling below its average cost basis, resulting in unrealized losses in the company's digital asset reserves.

Despite the impact of the end-of-quarter Bitcoin decline, the company's performance and market valuation experienced unrealized losses. However, Chief Financial Officer Andrew Kang emphasized that the company's operations will remain focused on long-term strategy and will not alter established policies due to short-term market fluctuations.

The company's executive chairman, Michael Saylor, expressed agreement with this strategy, stating that while quarterly fluctuations are severe and concerning, the company's strategy is focused on the long term and aims to withstand short-term price volatility, including current extreme conditions.

Additionally, Saylor criticized recent market fears about Bitcoin facing quantum attacks as 'terrible FUD.' He noted that quantum computing technology is still in its early stages and is not expected to pose a real threat for at least the next decade.

Saylor also emphasized that the entire financial system faces the same quantum threat challenges, and the Bitcoin network has the capability to upgrade to quantum-resistant protocols through global consensus in the future.

In summary, the core message from the Strategy management this time is to stabilize investors' confidence in the company's strategy and financial health amidst market panic by clearly defining the debt safety net, reaffirming the long-term holding strategy, and debunking fears of technological threats.

#Strategy #Quantum Threat

Deribit Data: Over $2.1 Billion Worth of Bitcoin Options Expiring, Will the Market Further Collapse?

This Friday at 16:00, the cryptocurrency market will once again face a large-scale options expiration, which may add new volatility risks to a market already deep in a bear phase.

According to data from the Deribit options market, approximately 32,649 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire today, with a notional value of $2.124 billion. Although this is smaller than last week's monthly expiration, the market environment at this Friday's expiration is entirely different.

Currently, the Bitcoin put/call options ratio is 0.54, indicating that the number of upcoming call options (long positions) far exceeds that of put options.

The spot price of Bitcoin has recovered to around $65,000, but it is still far below the options market's maximum pain point of $82,000, so a large number of call options will expire worthless today, which may further suppress market sentiment.

Meanwhile, approximately $416 million worth of 218,700 Ethereum options will also expire simultaneously, with a put/call ratio as high as 0.91, consistent with the bullish expectations in the Bitcoin market; at the same time, the spot price is around $1,900, significantly below the maximum pain point price of $2,400 for options.

Despite some market analysts believing that the $60,000 range is an important support level, a rapid decline in price near this level could attract some bottom-fishing funds.

However, based on the defensive layout of the options market and the sustained selling pressure in the spot market, the overall downside risk in the cryptocurrency market remains unresolved, and investors should be wary of possible drastic price fluctuations around the expiration date.

#Options

The total net outflow of the U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs reached nearly $515 million on Thursday.

On February 6, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $434 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of total fund outflow; and there was not a single BTC ETF with net inflow yesterday;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC recorded net outflows of $175 million (approximately 2,740 BTC) and $109 million (approximately 1,710 BTC) respectively;

Next, Grayscale's GBTC and BTC recorded net outflows of $75.42 million (1,180 BTC) and $35.17 million (550.53 BTC) respectively;

While Ark 21Shares ARKB and Bitwise BITB recorded net outflows of $23.12 million (361.82 BTC) and $15.62 million (244.47 BTC) respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $80.76 billion, accounting for 6.34% of Bitcoin's total market value, with a cumulative net inflow of $54.32 billion.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $8.079 million, marking the third day of total fund outflow this week.

Among them, Fidelity's FETH recorded the highest net outflow of $55.78 million (approximately 29,680 ETH) yesterday, currently FETH has a cumulative net inflow of $2.51 billion;

Next, Grayscale's ETHE and BlackRock's ETHA recorded net outflows of $27.08 million (approximately 14,410 ETH) and $8.52 million (approximately 4,530 ETH) respectively;

While Grayscale's ETH and Invesco QETH recorded net inflows of $7.05 million (approximately 3,750 ETH) and $3.53 million (approximately 1,880 ETH) respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $10.90 billion, accounting for 4.83% of Ethereum's total market value, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.83 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

As Bitcoin plummets to $60,000, the sentiment in the crypto market has also fallen to its lowest point in nearly three years.

According to the latest report from Cointelegraph, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing its latest dark moment since the collapse of the Terra blockchain in June 2022, with market sentiment dropping to its lowest level since the market crash in 2022.

In Friday morning trading, the price of Bitcoin fell below $60,000, and the corresponding "Crypto Fear and Greed Index" also dropped to 9 out of 100, indicating "extreme fear" in the market.

This crash did not happen overnight; in the past three weeks, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted 38% from a high of $97,000 in 2026, erasing all gains from the past 16 months.

Even more concerning is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend indicator that has only appeared during bear market cycles. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has dropped about 50% from its historical high of $126,000 set at the beginning of October.

According to CoinGlass data, over 579,600 traders were forced to liquidate in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount exceeding $2.6 billion, of which 83% were bullish long positions.

Analysts point out that this crash was triggered by multiple macro factors resonating together. First, the significant pullback of U.S. tech stocks combined with concerns over AI valuations, along with weak employment data and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, have jointly suppressed market preference for risk assets.

Secondly, the significant divergence between Bitcoin and gold trends has forced investors to reevaluate its asset positioning as "digital gold" and its hedging narrative, further shaking the foundation of market confidence.

Overall, Bitcoin is undergoing multiple tests of technical breakdown, macro pressure, and narrative instability. Whether its closing price can form an effective support near $60,000 this week will depend on whether panic sentiment can ease and whether broader macroeconomic signals will see a turnaround.

#比特币暴跌

The daily trading volume of IBIT broke 10 billion US dollars, setting a historical record, yet the stock price plummeted by 13%

On February 6, according to Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the Bitcoin spot ETF (code: IBIT) under BlackRock reached a historical high in trading volume yesterday, totaling 10.057 billion US dollars, but was accompanied by a 13% drop in its stock price, marking the second-largest single-day decline since the product's launch.

This rare market transaction phenomenon essentially represents a fierce clash between "panic selling" and "buying on the dip". One side consists of holders fleeing in panic as prices crash, while the other side attempts to capture the "bottom" with significant buying power.

It is this intense confrontation between the two forces that has pushed market divergence to a boiling point, ultimately resulting in a record-breaking daily trading volume and a massive exchange of shares.

Chart data shows that this trading volume not only far exceeds its historical daily average level of 2.228 billion US dollars but has even surpassed all peaks since the product's launch in February 2024.

Analyst Eric Balchunas described this market performance as "brutal," accurately depicting the extreme volatility of current crypto market sentiment and the intensity of the bull-bear battle.

This move has also prompted the community to deeply examine market sentiment and potential risks. Some observers question whether such a massive trading volume might indicate structural issues within the market or suggest that large institutions are utilizing extreme volatility for complex strategic operations.

Regardless, the market has once again confirmed the high-risk nature of the cryptocurrency market in an extreme manner. It also reminds investors that massive trading volume does not equate to a simple bullish signal; rather, the complex and often divergent relationship between price and volume behind it is the core that investors must penetrate through the surface and deeply understand.

#贝莱德IBIT #比特币现货ETF

On-chain data reveals the BTC on-chain differentiation pattern: whale holdings reach a nine-month low, while retail holdings hit a 20-month high.

According to analysis data from the on-chain data analysis platform Santiment, the Bitcoin market is exhibiting a typical bear market structure of "whales selling and retail investors buying," which may be a key reason behind the recent price plunge to $60,001 (the first time since October 2024).

Data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin held by "whale and shark" addresses, which hold between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoins, has dropped to 68.04%, hitting a nine-month low since May 28, 2025.

This includes the fact that in just the past eight days, these "whale" addresses have sold 81,068 Bitcoins, and the ongoing selling pressure has significantly impacted the market.

Meanwhile, small retail addresses holding less than 0.01 Bitcoins are showing the opposite trend. Their holdings now account for 0.249% of the total supply, reaching a 20-month high since June 20, 2024.

Although the proportion of small retail addresses is minimal, it clearly reflects the determination and strong willingness of retail investors to "buy the dip" in the current decline.

However, this pattern of "large holders selling and retail investors buying" is historically a typical characteristic that fosters and prolongs the bear market cycle. Analysts point out that as long as there are no clear signals of "retail surrender" (i.e., panic selling) in the market, "smart money" (whales) may continue to be willing to sell chips and are not in a hurry to buy back until most retail investors lose confidence and choose to exit.

Overall, this on-chain dynamic reveals a severe differentiation trend in the crypto market. Specifically, the whale funds that determine price direction are withdrawing, while the retail funds that support the market are accumulating against the trend. Only when this imbalance is reversed can the market possibly release a true bottom signal.

#比特币链上数据 #巨鲸抛售

The cryptocurrency market has evaporated $1 trillion in 22 days, with capital market noise reaching a historic peak

According to data recently released by @Kobeissi Letter, since January 14, in just 22 days, the total market value of the global cryptocurrency market has evaporated by approximately $1 trillion, meaning that nearly $45 billion in market value 'disappears' on average each trading day.

The agency pointed out in the report that the current 'noise' in the capital market has reached unprecedented levels, and it reminds investors to 'eliminate noise' to view market fluctuations with a calmer perspective.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a deep adjustment and a loss of market value triggered by multiple factors, including a shift in macro policy expectations, institutional capital outflows, and large-scale liquidations of leverage.

The significant market correction also reflects the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Market participants need to remain rational, be wary of overly emotional trading, and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations to cope with various uncertainties in the market.

#加密货币 #digital assets

PlanB presents four scenarios for the Bitcoin bear market: from a deep correction to $25,000 to a slight adjustment near $70,000.

Recently, Bitcoin analyst PlanB proposed four potential adjustment scenario analyses regarding the current development path of the crypto market bear market, providing a clear thought process for the public to assess the market adjustment magnitude.

He listed four potential bear market adjustment paths as follows:

1. Deep correction: a drop of 80% from the historical high of $126,000, targeting $25,000;

2. Drop to key moving averages: falling to the 200-week moving average or near the 'realized price', with a target range of $50,000 to $60,000;

3. Previous high support level: pulling back to find support above the previous bull market high (around $70,000);

4. Bottom formation has been completed: the low of $72,900 set on February 3 is the bottom of this bear market.

Overall, considering the current market conditions and PlanB's comprehensive assessment, it is not difficult to find that among the four bear market scenarios, the probability of a deep correction (the first scenario) is relatively low;

In contrast, the likelihood of prices dropping to key mid-term technical levels (the second scenario) or stabilizing near the previous high point (the third scenario) is more in line with the overall characteristics of tightening market liquidity and technical support.

However, despite the analysis outlining a clear potential trend path for the market, the ultimate direction still depends on multiple factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory policies, and the market's own structural dynamics.

For investors, this scenario analysis can only serve as a reference for risk assessment and strategy formulation, and it is still necessary to combine real-time market dynamics to rationally assess the final adjustment depth of this bear market.

#比特币 #熊市分析

Bitcoin has fallen below the 365-day moving average for the first time in 3 years, and may further dip into the $60,000–$70,000 range.

According to the CryptoQuant weekly report analysis, multiple indicator resonances suggest that the Bitcoin market has entered a bear market phase, and prices may further dip into the $60,000–$70,000 range. Specifically, as follows:

On-chain indicators have turned fully bearish: Bitcoin reached a high of $126,000 in early October 2025, when the "bull market scoring index" was still in the strong bullish range of 80;

However, after the liquidation event on October 10, the index plummeted and has now fallen below zero, with prices retreating below $75,000, and market structure significantly weakened.

Institutional and spot ETF demand double hit: The U.S. spot ETF holdings changed from a net purchase of 46,000 coins in 2025 to a net sale of 10,600 Bitcoins from early 2026 to now, which also constitutes a demand gap of 56,000 BTC and a continuous selling pressure source;

Additionally, the Coinbase premium has been negative since mid-October last year, indicating low participation from U.S. investors; even more severe is that the explicit annual spot demand plummeted 93% from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 coins.

Liquidity conditions are tightening simultaneously: The market value of the main stablecoin USDT has turned to negative growth for the first time in the past 60 days (a decrease of $133 million), marking the first contraction since October 2023;

Moreover, the market value of stablecoins has reversed after peaking at $15.9 billion at the end of October last year, aligning with the typical bear market liquidity contraction characteristics.

Technical structure confirms downside risk: Bitcoin has fallen below the 365-day moving average (365 Day MA) for the first time since March 2022, and during the subsequent 83 days, the decline has reached 23%, with the weakness even surpassing the performance at the beginning of the 2022 bear market.

The final analysis suggests that as key on-chain support levels are lost, the downside risk for Bitcoin will further intensify, with the next target price range likely pointing to $60,000 to $70,000.

#链上数据 #流动性紧缩

The total net outflow of the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs on Wednesday exceeded 624 million USD.

On February 5th, according to SoSovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of nearly 545 million USD yesterday, marking two consecutive days of total net outflow of funds; and there was no net inflow for any BTC ETF yesterday;

Among them, BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC recorded a single-day net outflow of 373 million USD (approximately 5,080 BTC) and 86.44 million USD (approximately 1,180 BTC), respectively;

Next, Grayscale GBTC and Ark 21Shares ARKB recorded a single-day net outflow of 41.77 million USD (568.26 BTC) and 31.72 million USD (431.53 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, Franklin EZBC and VanEck HODL had a single-day net outflow of 6.38 million USD (86.75 BTC) and 5.20 million USD (70.70 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 93.51 billion USD, accounting for 6.36% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of 54.75 billion USD.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of 79.48 million USD, marking the second day of total net outflow of funds this week.

Among them, BlackRock ETHA had the highest net outflow of 58.95 million USD (approximately 27,200 ETH) yesterday, and the current cumulative net inflow of ETHA is 12.14 billion USD;

Next, Fidelity FETH had a net outflow of 20.52 million USD (approximately 9,470 ETH) yesterday, and the current cumulative net inflow of FETH is 2.57 billion USD;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 12.71 billion USD, accounting for 4.85% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of 11.91 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

420,000 Binance account login information leaked, stemming from a malware database of 149 million stolen credentials

On February 4th, security company Web3 Antivirus issued a warning that a massive database containing 149 million stolen credentials had been exposed, directly involving login information for approximately 420,000 Binance accounts. This incident has directly highlighted the severe security threats currently facing the cryptocurrency sector.

The source of this leak is attributed to 'information stealing' malware that has long been lurking on user devices. In addition to exchange accounts, the stolen data also includes email, social account passwords, as well as core asset credentials such as private keys, API keys, and browser session tokens.

Security experts emphasize that such attacks often complete the theft long before funds are transferred, and traditional on-chain monitoring is slow to respond. The key to defense must be realized in early detection at the device level.

The report points out that criminal gangs have begun distributing malicious AI tools disguised as wallets or trading bots on platforms like ClawHub, which activate stealing functions only when the victims' balances increase or they perform specific actions, thereby forming a 'supply chain attack' from software tools to wallets.

According to a previous report by PeckShield, losses due to fraud and hacking in 2025 have already exceeded $4.04 billion, and the targets of attacks have clearly shifted to centralized exchanges and large institutions, accounting for 75% of the stolen funds.

Furthermore, Web3 Antivirus predicts that illegal cryptocurrency activity in 2025 could reach as high as $158 billion, surpassing $64 billion in 2024. Therefore, real-time detection and infrastructure-level monitoring are more important than ever.

In conclusion, security agencies believe that the gap between user protection and platform risk control is the core issue exposed by this incident. The key to the success of scammers does not lie in user negligence, but rather in the lagging nature of risk exposure;

Thus, as a critical controlling party in the transaction authorization process, possessing comprehensive information on the trading models and authorization behaviors of exchanges should become the core responsibility for preventing asset theft.

#账户安全 #数据泄露

The U.S. CFTC withdraws the ban on political event contracts, regulatory stance shifts to support orderly innovation in prediction markets

The Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Mike Selig, has withdrawn the proposal made by his predecessor in 2024 to ban 'political event contracts' and has rescinded the related guidance that had previously caused uncertainty in the industry.

Selig stated that the new rules will be strictly formulated based on the Commodity Exchange Act, with the core aim of promoting orderly and responsible innovation in the derivatives market.

Compared to the previous draft, which equated political event contracts with contracts for war and extreme violence events, categorizing them as 'not in the public interest', this definition has been completely overturned in the new regulations.

This policy shift has cleared key institutional barriers for the development of the prediction market industry. It not only provides a clearer and friendlier regulatory environment for event prediction platforms represented by Kalshi and Polymarket;

but also paves the way for large traditional financial institutions like Coinbase and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) to enter and expand their business in this field.

In summary, the CFTC's proactive withdrawal of the controversial proposal and its open attitude towards innovative markets mark a new stage in the landscape of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation, which is officially entering a more pragmatic phase that emphasizes substantial influence.

#美国CFTC #预测市场

U.S. Senate Leader Schumer Strongly Intervenes, Crypto Market Structure Bill May Regain Momentum

According to Eleanor Terrett, Chuck Schumer, the U.S. Senate Majority Leader, attended a closed-door meeting of Democrats and delivered an important speech on the legislative efforts regarding the crypto market structure bill, the 'CLARITY Act'.

A Democratic staffer disclosed that the atmosphere during the meeting was 'positive' and was considered 'the most productive Democratic meeting to date'.

Schumer emphasized the importance of continued engagement from the cryptocurrency industry and urged all parties to maintain momentum to push the legislation forward. This move indicates that although there are still disagreements between the two parties on key provisions, leadership is actively intervening to break the deadlock.

It is reported that this internal Democratic meeting followed a 'constructive' discussion hosted by the White House, aimed at addressing 'technical points' such as stablecoin yield.

Sources pointed out that while there are clear demands from Democratic lawmakers, this legislative effort, which seemed 'precarious' a few weeks ago, has not 'made progress' but is regaining momentum.

Overall, the direct mediation from the White House and the strong intervention from Senate leadership in the legislative process surrounding the cryptocurrency market structure bill have injected momentum into this negotiation and shifted the previous deadlock into a more constructive and intensive negotiation phase.

At the same time, how to resolve core conflicts such as moral clauses and stablecoin regulation remains the biggest negotiation test the bill currently faces in the Senate. Therefore, the results of negotiations in the coming weeks may directly determine the bill's final fate.

#加密货币法案 #CLARITY法案

U.S. Treasury Secretary Excludes the Possibility of Government 'Bailout' for Bitcoin; Seized Bitcoin Has Appreciated to $15 Billion

Recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated at a congressional hearing that he has explicitly ruled out the possibility of the federal government 'bailing out' Bitcoin during market downturns.

He emphasized that neither the Treasury Department nor the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has the authority to require private banks to support Bitcoin's price by purchasing more of it.

This statement strongly counters previous market speculation about potential government intervention in cryptocurrency prices, thereby establishing the U.S. government's firm 'no bailout' principle amidst Bitcoin market volatility.

Meanwhile, Bessent revealed that the value of Bitcoin seized by the U.S. government through law enforcement actions has skyrocketed from an initial approximately $500 million to over $15 billion, clearly demonstrating that the government's held crypto assets have realized significant appreciation during market cycles.

He further explained that based on the presidential executive order signed by Trump in March 2025, which delineated the policy red line, the government’s ability to directly use funds to intervene in the market has been restricted.

Against this backdrop, the legitimate avenues for the government to increase its strategic cryptocurrency reserves are strictly limited to two methods: one is through asset seizure; the other is implementing a budget-neutral substitution strategy (i.e., using national reserves of oil or precious metals) to exchange for Bitcoin.

However, this policy framework has sparked vastly different reactions within the Bitcoin community. Critics point out that relying on the passive accumulation model of seizure and substitution lacks sufficient force to provide strong official endorsement for the market, unlike active purchases.

Conversely, supporters hold the opposing view that the U.S. government’s initiative to actively establish and publicly disclose its Bitcoin strategic reserves has a strong demonstration effect, likely encouraging multiple countries globally to emulate the establishment of their own cryptocurrency reserves.

In the long run, this global official reserve competition is expected to fundamentally reshape the supply and demand relationship for Bitcoin, thereby having a more profound impact on the global demand and price of Bitcoin.

 #ScottBessent #政府立场

On the eve of the release of key employment data, the US dollar index fluctuates within a narrow range, awaiting policy signals.

In the lead-up to the release of US employment data, market sentiment in the foreign exchange market is becoming cautious, with the US dollar index (DXY) showing a pattern of narrow fluctuations. Investors are also trying to find clear clues about the future pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve from the upcoming economic indicators.

According to Jinshi Data, the ADP private sector employment data for the US in January will be released tonight at 21:15, and this employment data serves as an important leading indicator for the official non-farm payroll report, which may provide preliminary data guidance for assessing the true state of the labor market.

Subsequently, the upcoming ISM services survey will further reveal the critical conditions of economic activity, providing the market with a more comprehensive reference.

It is worth noting that due to the impact of the previous short government shutdown in the US, the official non-farm payroll report originally scheduled for release this Friday faced a risk of delay.

However, with President Trump signing a bill on Tuesday to end the shutdown, government departments have resumed operations, and the market generally expects that this highly anticipated report will likely be released as scheduled.

Overall, the current market is in a typical "data waiting period," and the calm trend of the US dollar index reflects investors' wait-and-see mentality before major signals are revealed.

Whether it's the leading indicator from ADP or the non-farm report to be released this Friday, any performance that exceeds expectations, whether strong or weak, could instantly break this balance.

This will not only directly affect the market's predictions about the Federal Reserve's policy path but could also trigger a chain reaction in the foreign exchange and global asset markets.

#美元指数 #US employment data

X platform adds "Little Rocket" like animation, possibly in response to the successful merger of SpaceX and xAI

On February 4, according to DogeDesigner on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), after Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) completed the merger with the artificial intelligence company (xAI), X launched a new feature where a little rocket animation appears when liked.

Market speculation suggests that this move is likely a response made by the platform following the recent announcement of the merger between SpaceX and xAI, aiming to convey the entire business empire of Musk's companies through playful interactive details.

According to an official post released by SpaceX on February 3, the company has officially completed its acquisition of xAI, aiming to lay a crucial foundation for subsequent business layout and to create one of the most ambitious and vertically integrated innovative power engines both on and off Earth.

It is reported that the newly merged entity will integrate multiple cutting-edge capabilities such as artificial intelligence, rocket technology, and Starlink satellite networks, supporting the ambitious vision of advancing "space computing power" and aiming to build an integrated frontier technology ecosystem.

Musk believes that deploying AI data centers in space and utilizing nearly unlimited solar energy and naturally low-temperature environments is the ultimate path to solving the energy and heat dissipation bottlenecks faced by AI development on the ground.

To this end, SpaceX plans to launch up to 1 million low Earth orbit satellites, aiming to build an "orbital data center" around the Earth, with an estimated overall valuation reaching a staggering $12.5 trillion.

This may hint that, in Musk's overall blueprint, the X platform may not only play the role of social media but could become an important public interface that closely integrates with its cross-domain technology ecosystem, showcasing and connecting the "Space AI Empire" in the future.

Overall, the little rocket like animation launched by the X platform, although just a minor UI detail, appears at such a critical point of business integration, its symbolic significance far exceeds the function itself.

This may indicate that, in Musk's vision, the X platform in the future may not only be a place for information dissemination and social interaction but could also become an important interaction and display window within his "Space AI Empire".

#SpaceX #xAI

The U.S. BTC spot ETF saw a total net outflow of $272 million on Tuesday, while the ETH ETF recorded a total net inflow of $14.06 million for the day.

On February 4, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of nearly $272 million yesterday, marking the first day of total fund outflow this week;

Among them, Fidelity's FBTC had the highest net outflow of nearly $149 million (approximately 1,970 BTC), with a cumulative total net inflow of $11.28 billion.

Following that, Ark 21Shares ARKB and Grayscale's GBTC and BTC recorded net outflows of $62.5 million (826.56 BTC), $56.63 million (748.93 BTC), and $33.8 million (447.04 BTC) for the day, respectively;

Bitwise BITB, VanEck HODL, and Franklin EZBC recorded net outflows of $23.42 million (309.67 BTC), $4.81 million (63.62 BTC), and $2.19 million (28.92 BTC) for the day, respectively;

It is worth noting that BlackRock's IBIT was the only BTC ETF with a net inflow yesterday, totaling $60.03 million (793.85 BTC);

As of now, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF stands at $97.01 billion, accounting for 6.35% of Bitcoin's total market value, with a cumulative net inflow of $55.30 billion.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of $14.06 million, marking the first day of total fund inflow this week.

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA topped the net inflow list with $42.85 million (approximately 19,040 ETH), with a cumulative total net inflow of $12.20 billion;

Grayscale's ETH and ETHE, as well as Invesco QETH, recorded net inflows of $19.12 million (approximately 8,490 ETH), $8.25 million (approximately 3,660 ETH), and $1.14 million (508.27 ETH) for the day, respectively;

Meanwhile, Fidelity's FETH and VanEck ETHV saw net outflows of $54.84 million (approximately 24,360 ETH) and $2.47 million (approximately 1,100 ETH) for the day, respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is $13.39 billion, accounting for 4.82% of Ethereum's total market value, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.99 billion.

#比特币ETF #Ethereum ETF

Peter Schiff: Bitcoin is currently in a long-term bear market priced in gold

On February 4, U.S. economist and gold supporter Peter Schiff posted on social media, once again emphasizing his bearish stance on Bitcoin. He pointed out, using gold as a benchmark, that Bitcoin has entered a "long-term bear market priced in gold."

Schiff noted that while gold prices quickly rebounded to over $5,000 per ounce, Bitcoin's price fell below $76,000;

At this price, 1 Bitcoin is only worth about 15 ounces of gold, a ratio that has plummeted by 59% compared to the historical high in November 2021.

Schiff believes this drastic shrinkage proves the failure of Bitcoin as the narrative of "digital gold," as it is clearly in a long-term devaluation trend compared to real currency (gold).

This viewpoint quickly ignited discussions in the market about its valuation logic. Opponents argue that simply tying Bitcoin to gold is one-sided, as the properties and driving cycles of the two asset classes are completely different, making such a comparison lack substantial meaning.

Schiff counters that since Bitcoin is labeled as "digital gold," using real gold as a value benchmark is the most objective and reasonable way to measure it, aligning with its own brand narrative.

In summary, the background of this valuation debate coincides with the recent overall slump in the cryptocurrency market and the strong rebound of traditional safe-haven assets, prompting the market to reflect on its valuation logic for crypto assets and sparking ongoing attention and discussion.

At the same time, the debate surrounding the relative value of Bitcoin and gold touches on much more than numerical comparisons; it fundamentally addresses the asset property positioning of both. The significant devaluation priced in gold currently poses a direct challenge to its "digital gold" narrative.

In the future landscape of global asset competition, whether Bitcoin will become the disruptive successor to gold in the digital age or integrate technological growth and value storage characteristics is an inevitable pain period in this identity positioning process.

#比特币 #黄金

White House Crypto Advisor: The cryptocurrency bill must not include provisions targeting the Trump family's digital asset business

Recently, White House digital asset advisor Patrick Witt expressed the U.S. government's core position on cryptocurrency market structure legislation.

He emphasized that any provisions directly targeting President Trump and his family's digital asset business would be considered an insurmountable red line.

Witt further pointed out that provisions added by Democratic lawmakers under the guise of "anti-corruption" and "ethical review" lack rationality and are completely unacceptable.

In his view, the original intention of the bill should be to establish a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market, rather than to be distorted into a political review tool targeting individuals.

To this end, he urged Democrats to return to a pragmatic negotiation track and propose more feasible revisions to jointly promote the enactment of the legislation.

When discussing the legislative advancement strategy, Witt stated that the White House's current top priority is to promote the issuance of a final bill that can be submitted for the President's signature.

Around this goal, the White House is trying to find a workable compromise on core differences such as stablecoin yields between traditional banking and the crypto industry.

However, he also admitted that the Democratic Party's insistence on restricting government officials and their families from participating in the crypto industry remains one of the main obstacles in the current legislative process.

Overall, the ultimate direction of the market structure bill ultimately depends on balancing the establishment of the regulatory framework and the disputes over political positions.

At the same time, given that the legislative window is gradually narrowing, the pressure to reach a consensus due to differing views continues to increase, making the subsequent legislative process full of uncertainty.

This contest, which combines regulatory attributes and political games, will ultimately determine the compliance path of the U.S. crypto industry and affect the emotions and expectations of the global crypto market.

#加密货币法案 #立法争议

Iran seeks to hold bilateral nuclear talks with the United States, causing Bitcoin to briefly fall below $75,000

As market sentiment remains low, the cryptocurrency market experiences another wave of declines. Bitcoin's price suffered a sharp drop in just a few hours overnight, falling below the critical support level of $75,000, briefly touching $73,000.

Reportedly, BTC fell from around $78,000 to below $73,000 in the past few hours. This rapid decline led to approximately $20 million in derivative positions being liquidated across major exchanges, with short positions making up the vast majority.

According to Coingecko data, in the past 24 hours, BTC has dropped by 3.2%, ETH fell by 2.7%, XRP decreased by 1.3%, SOL declined by 4.8%, and ADA fell by 0.3%, with the overall market showing a downward trend.

Analysts believe that the immediate trigger for this market fluctuation is the sudden change in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Reports indicate that Iran has proposed changes to the format of nuclear negotiations with the United States, directly causing the talks scheduled for this Friday in Istanbul to hit a deadlock.

Prior to this, countries like Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman had been actively promoting the peace talks, but Iran's inclination to seek bilateral meetings has been viewed as potentially undermining diplomatic efforts.

Meanwhile, against the backdrop of the United States increasing its military presence in the Gulf region, the deadlock in negotiations has further heightened the risk of military conflict in the area.

In response to this sudden geopolitical news, traditional safe-haven assets and cryptocurrencies have shown starkly different performances. Gold, as a traditional safe haven, has increased by about 6.15% in the past 24 hours; in contrast, Bitcoin has decreased by nearly 3.2% during the same period.

This clear contrast of "safe-haven assets rising while risk assets fall" vividly outlines the increasingly evident flow of funds driven by risk aversion in the current market. In this context, the cryptocurrency market is unlikely to see a substantial recovery, with weak fluctuations likely becoming the norm.

#地缘政治风险 #伊朗核谈判