ratecut

In a stunning 6-3 decision handed down today, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), are illegal. The ruling strips the executive branch of a major trade weapon and leaves the federal government on the hook for a massive repayment bill. U.S. companies and importers who have already paid roughly $150 billion under these tariffs may now be entitled to get their money back.
But what exactly does this mean for businesses, the broader economy, and the administration's trade agenda? Let’s break it down.
How the $150 Billion Refund Will Work
While the ruling is a massive victory for importers, the cash won't hit their bank accounts overnight. The Supreme Court's decision did not outline a clear, automatic refund process, meaning companies have a legal maze to navigate:
No Automatic Payouts: Importers will likely need to file formal claims or lawsuits; many of which will flow through the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT), to recover their funds.
The Burden of Proof: Only the importers of record who paid the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) directly have a clear path to a refund. Downstream purchasers will need to review supply contracts and consult legal counsel to see if they are eligible.
A Fiscal Headache: If a massive wave of refunds is approved, the U.S. Treasury will face a severe revenue shortfall, forcing the government to find the cash to pay back the estimated $130 billion to $150 billion already collected.
The Economic Impact: A Double-Edged Sword
This ruling sends immediate ripples through the U.S. economy, creating a complex mix of relief and new financial risks.
The Upside: Cooling Inflation and #RateCut
Tariffs inherently raise costs for U.S. companies, which are almost always passed down to the consumer, adding upward pressure on everyday prices.
- With the IEEPA #Tariffs removed, import costs will drop, potentially easing sticky inflation over time.
- This gives the Federal Reserve, currently caught in a tug-of-war between weak economic growth and stubborn inflation, much more breathing room.
- Cooling inflation could clear the runway for more aggressive interest rate cuts without the risk of price spikes. Lower rates would, in turn, supercharge consumer spending, business investment, and the housing market.
The Downside: Deficits and Treasury Yields
On the flip side, losing ongoing tariff revenue while simultaneously refunding up to $150 billion creates intense fiscal pressure. The government will likely have to rely on higher borrowing to bridge the gap, which could put upward pressure on Treasury yields and increase the national deficit.
Trump’s Backup Plan: Slower, but Still Potent
While the Supreme Court removed IEEPA from the president's toolkit, the ruling does not eliminate Trump's ability to wage trade wars. It simply changes the speed and breadth of how tariffs are applied. He still has several formidable tools at his disposal:
Section 232: Allows for tariffs on specific industries justified by "national security." This is already legally tested and can easily be expanded to more sectors.
Section 301: Permits tariffs on specific countries for "unfair trade practices." This was the core legal foundation for many of the administration's tariffs against China.
Section 122: Provides a fast, temporary tariff option to deal with balance of payments deficits, though it is strictly limited in both size and duration (up to 150 days).
Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duties: Imposes high tariffs applied through formal legal proceedings to combat unfairly priced or subsidized imports, though these investigations often take years to conclude.
The Bottom Line: IEEPA allowed the administration to impose broad, sweeping tariffs almost instantly. Going forward, new tariffs will require deeper investigations or stronger legal justifications. The era of sector-by-sector tariffs will continue, but the process will now be slower, heavily scrutinized, and fraught with heightened uncertainty.
#TRUMP

🇺🇸 The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut today at 2 PM ET.
With odds near 99.9%, a major liquidity wave is on the horizon. The key focus now — Powell’s tone. Markets are craving a dovish message. 📉➡️📈
#FED #RateCut #Macro #CryptoNews #Powell $TRU

$BTC
In this post, let’s break down how rate cuts and other big macro events price in before they happen — and how you can position smartly to stay ahead of the move. 👇
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🔹 Why Price Dips After “Good News”?
If we all expect a rate cut and it actually happens… why does the market still dump?
Example — September 17th, 25bps cut. Everyone was hyped, yet price fell.
👉 Reason: It was already priced in.
Markets usually pump 1–2 weeks before the expected event — then sell off once it’s confirmed.
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🔹 Market Reaction Scenarios
Event Reaction Reason
No Change 🔴 Hard Dump Expectations missed
25bps Cut 🔴 Dump Already priced in
50bps Cut 🟢 Pump Unexpected surprise
When a bullish event is expected, it’s often already in the charts before the announcement.
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🔹 Expected vs Unexpected
Expected Events (Rate cuts, CPI, halving): price in before the event.
Unexpected Events (War, hacks, policy shifts): market reacts instantly.
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🔹 How to Position 💼
1️⃣ Start preparing 1–2 weeks early.
2️⃣ Check forecasts & Polymarket odds (majority bet = most likely).
3️⃣ If it plays out as expected → close position.
4️⃣ If something unexpected happens → hold/add.
5️⃣ If “no change” when a cut was expected → flip short.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research.
💭 What’s your take? How do you position before FOMC events? Drop your thoughts below 👇
#Macro #fomc #RateCut #cryptotrading #Marketpsychology