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Peter Schiff: If Bitcoin $BTC breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K. That would be an 84% drop from its ATH. I know Bitcoin has done that before, but never with so much hype, leverage, institutional ownership, and market cap at stake. Sell #bitcoin now!
Do you agree with him? 🥴🤔
Do you agree with him? 🥴🤔
Koyushi---warrior ec13452a:
hahaha 😂 even if it falls to 0.0001 i will still joyfully hold it and buy more all the remaining supply left like Micheal sailor's
$BTC (~$66,274) 📉 Signal: DISTRIBUTION (SHORT/HEDGE)
Trend: Rangebound Weakness. BTC is chopping below $67k resistance after failing to hold the $70k breakout. Volume is drying up on bounces.$ENSO
Strategy: The market is heavy, and we are playing the rejection of the mid-range. Rallies are currently being sold into until we see a reclaim of higher timeframe support.$D
Targets:
$64,200 (Local Liquidity)
$60,500 (Major Demand Zone)
Stop Loss: $68,500
#WhenWillCLARITYActPass #bitcoin #StrategyBTCPurchase #PredictionMarketsCFTCBacking #HarvardAddsETHExposure
Trend: Rangebound Weakness. BTC is chopping below $67k resistance after failing to hold the $70k breakout. Volume is drying up on bounces.$ENSO
Strategy: The market is heavy, and we are playing the rejection of the mid-range. Rallies are currently being sold into until we see a reclaim of higher timeframe support.$D
Targets:
$64,200 (Local Liquidity)
$60,500 (Major Demand Zone)
Stop Loss: $68,500
#WhenWillCLARITYActPass #bitcoin #StrategyBTCPurchase #PredictionMarketsCFTCBacking #HarvardAddsETHExposure
🔥🔥 URGENT — listen to this news
The UAE government 🇦🇪 has officially entered the mining industry — and in a terrifyingly strong way. This isn’t a normal entry; we’re talking about Bitcoin mining worth an insane $455 million through a company called Citadel.
This means it’s not just a small investment… an entire country is building a Bitcoin reserve worth hundreds of millions. That’s a very strong signal that the game has become bigger than just individuals or companies.
What used to be seen as a high-risk move is now a strategic option for countries and governments that are moving smartly — and with real weight — inside the crypto world.
The market is changing right in front of our eyes… and the big question is: Which country will be next to enter with the same power?
#BTC #bitcoin #StrategyBTCPurchase $BTC
The UAE government 🇦🇪 has officially entered the mining industry — and in a terrifyingly strong way. This isn’t a normal entry; we’re talking about Bitcoin mining worth an insane $455 million through a company called Citadel.
This means it’s not just a small investment… an entire country is building a Bitcoin reserve worth hundreds of millions. That’s a very strong signal that the game has become bigger than just individuals or companies.
What used to be seen as a high-risk move is now a strategic option for countries and governments that are moving smartly — and with real weight — inside the crypto world.
The market is changing right in front of our eyes… and the big question is: Which country will be next to enter with the same power?
#BTC #bitcoin #StrategyBTCPurchase $BTC
Nadia Al-Shammari:
هدية مني لك تجدها مثبت في اول منشور 🌹
Here’s how to know when #bitcoin will bottom.
So you can get generational entries.
That’s what I’m waiting for.
Im not here to guess.
Or shout random numbers like every other clown.
I use real data and metrics.
It’s so accurate & simple,
But not so easy.
One of my favourite tools:
The ‘Bitcoin Rainbow Chart’.
It shows where price is relative to long term value.
The chart is simple:
Blue zone = undervalued.
Panic everywhere and panic hands flushed.
That’s where bottoms form.
It works every cycle:
2015 → Blue → Bottom
2018 → Blue → Bottom
2022 → Blue → Bottom
Now here’s the real secret.
In past cycles, we don’t just touch blue.
We usually go slightly below it.
That’s where the real bottom will be.
That’s the final flush.
So I’m expecting the same this cycle.
When it’s time,
I’ll tell you exactly when this happens.
Because it’s so simple.
You can even track it yourself.
Just like this tweet if you want more actionable knowledge. $BTC
So you can get generational entries.
That’s what I’m waiting for.
Im not here to guess.
Or shout random numbers like every other clown.
I use real data and metrics.
It’s so accurate & simple,
But not so easy.
One of my favourite tools:
The ‘Bitcoin Rainbow Chart’.
It shows where price is relative to long term value.
The chart is simple:
Blue zone = undervalued.
Panic everywhere and panic hands flushed.
That’s where bottoms form.
It works every cycle:
2015 → Blue → Bottom
2018 → Blue → Bottom
2022 → Blue → Bottom
Now here’s the real secret.
In past cycles, we don’t just touch blue.
We usually go slightly below it.
That’s where the real bottom will be.
That’s the final flush.
So I’m expecting the same this cycle.
When it’s time,
I’ll tell you exactly when this happens.
Because it’s so simple.
You can even track it yourself.
Just like this tweet if you want more actionable knowledge. $BTC
DIMITRAKIS:
RUBBISH ENGLISH GENERATIONAL 😳so funny write in your language much better
$BTC The price hasn't reached last week's low (65,089)
If a rejection pattern is forming, the weekly candlestick's close should be at or above last week's opening (70,288)
The decline from 126k follows three waves
1st wave 126k-101k = 25
2nd wave 116k-80k = 36
3rd wave 97.9k-59.8k = 38
The price has fallen below the old all-time high
Open Interest is increasing as the price declines
All indications point to a high probability of an upward rebound
A new long has been opened
Target - we'll likely see levels above the start of the third leg
I expect the upward movement won't be as rapid as we saw last year
I'll scale profits, increase and decrease the position, and move the stop depending on conditions
#StrategyBTCPurchase #bitcoin
If a rejection pattern is forming, the weekly candlestick's close should be at or above last week's opening (70,288)
The decline from 126k follows three waves
1st wave 126k-101k = 25
2nd wave 116k-80k = 36
3rd wave 97.9k-59.8k = 38
The price has fallen below the old all-time high
Open Interest is increasing as the price declines
All indications point to a high probability of an upward rebound
A new long has been opened
Target - we'll likely see levels above the start of the third leg
I expect the upward movement won't be as rapid as we saw last year
I'll scale profits, increase and decrease the position, and move the stop depending on conditions
#StrategyBTCPurchase #bitcoin
BTCUSDT
Löpande
75X
Öppnar lång
Orealiserat resultat
+108.00%
Bitcoin as a Fire Alarm: Why Hayes Expects a Money Flood
Folks, Arthur Hayes just dropped some insights that are hard to ignore. He believes the current Bitcoin dip isn't just a correction—it's a real distress signal for the entire financial system.
Here's the picture: Nasdaq is treading water while BTC is falling. For most, that's a reason to panic, but Hayes sees logic in it. For him, Bitcoin is a "liquidity litmus test." It reacts to tightening credit conditions faster than stocks. Simply put, smart money already smells trouble while the traditional market is still asleep.
The core of his thesis is artificial intelligence. Sounds paradoxical, but the AI boom could hit white-collar workers hard. Fewer jobs → people can't pay their loans → banks lose hundreds of billions. To keep the system from collapsing, the Fed will have to fire up the printing press.
And that's where it gets interesting for us crypto folks. Sure, short-term pain is likely. Hayes doesn't rule out a drop to $60k if traditional markets finally catch up with crypto on the downside. But the endgame is almost the same: saving the economy through dollar inflation. And that's fuel for Bitcoin.
Honestly, the logic is solid. If banks start failing, the government won't let them die quietly. They'll inject liquidity, and scarce assets will moon. The only question is whether we have the nerves to weather this "shakeout." I personally lean toward holding rather than trying to catch a falling knife. The printing press story repeats too often to ignore this scenario.
What do you think—has Bitcoin already priced in the crisis, or are we in for another deep dip before the next rally?
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin
Here's the picture: Nasdaq is treading water while BTC is falling. For most, that's a reason to panic, but Hayes sees logic in it. For him, Bitcoin is a "liquidity litmus test." It reacts to tightening credit conditions faster than stocks. Simply put, smart money already smells trouble while the traditional market is still asleep.
The core of his thesis is artificial intelligence. Sounds paradoxical, but the AI boom could hit white-collar workers hard. Fewer jobs → people can't pay their loans → banks lose hundreds of billions. To keep the system from collapsing, the Fed will have to fire up the printing press.
And that's where it gets interesting for us crypto folks. Sure, short-term pain is likely. Hayes doesn't rule out a drop to $60k if traditional markets finally catch up with crypto on the downside. But the endgame is almost the same: saving the economy through dollar inflation. And that's fuel for Bitcoin.
Honestly, the logic is solid. If banks start failing, the government won't let them die quietly. They'll inject liquidity, and scarce assets will moon. The only question is whether we have the nerves to weather this "shakeout." I personally lean toward holding rather than trying to catch a falling knife. The printing press story repeats too often to ignore this scenario.
What do you think—has Bitcoin already priced in the crisis, or are we in for another deep dip before the next rally?
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin
Crypto Market Trends:
Bitcoin will never fail, not for now
🚀 Strategy Doubles Down: 2,486 BTC Added to Holdings!
The "Bitcoin Treasury" giant, MicroStrategy, has just confirmed another massive acquisition, proving that their conviction remains unshaken despite market turbulence.
📊 The Numbers You Need to Know
Between February 9 and February 16, 2026, the company acquired 2,486 BTC for approximately $168.4 million.
Average Purchase Price: ~$67,710 per BTC.
Total Holdings: 717,131 BTC.
Total Investment: ~$54.5 billion.
Current Portfolio Value: Approximately $48.8 billion.
💡 The Strategy Behind the Move
While the company is currently seeing a mark-to-market unrealized loss of about $5.7 billion, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor remains bullish. The purchase was funded through:
$90.5 million from at-the-market (ATM) sales of MSTR common stock.
$78.4 million from the sale of "Stretch" preferred stock (STRC).
⚖️ Risk vs. Reward
Analysts note that Strategy has structured its debt conservatively, with no major maturities until 2028. Saylor recently stated that the company could withstand a Bitcoin drawdown to $8,000 before its reserves would only just equal its outstanding debt.
What’s your take? 📉 Is buying the dip at these levels a masterclass in treasury management, or is the leverage becoming too risky?
Leave your thoughts below! 👇
#Write2Earn #bitcoin #MicroStrategy #CryptoNews #BTC
$HMSTR
$JTO
📊 The Numbers You Need to Know
Between February 9 and February 16, 2026, the company acquired 2,486 BTC for approximately $168.4 million.
Average Purchase Price: ~$67,710 per BTC.
Total Holdings: 717,131 BTC.
Total Investment: ~$54.5 billion.
Current Portfolio Value: Approximately $48.8 billion.
💡 The Strategy Behind the Move
While the company is currently seeing a mark-to-market unrealized loss of about $5.7 billion, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor remains bullish. The purchase was funded through:
$90.5 million from at-the-market (ATM) sales of MSTR common stock.
$78.4 million from the sale of "Stretch" preferred stock (STRC).
⚖️ Risk vs. Reward
Analysts note that Strategy has structured its debt conservatively, with no major maturities until 2028. Saylor recently stated that the company could withstand a Bitcoin drawdown to $8,000 before its reserves would only just equal its outstanding debt.
What’s your take? 📉 Is buying the dip at these levels a masterclass in treasury management, or is the leverage becoming too risky?
Leave your thoughts below! 👇
#Write2Earn #bitcoin #MicroStrategy #CryptoNews #BTC
$HMSTR
$JTO
Last time Bitcoin printed five straight red months, it didn’t stop there — the sixth closed red too, and I remember how heavy the air felt back then. It feels like the market enjoys testing our patience right when we think the worst is over. They’re shaking weak hands, draining hope, stretching the pain just a little longer. If history even whispers the same rhythm again, we could be walking into another brutal close, and I’m not going to lie, that thought stings. But deep down I also know this is where conviction is born, in the silence, in the doubt, in the red.
#bitcoin
#bitcoin
🚨“BITCOIN$BTC GOING TO ZERO” SEARCHES PEAK THIS MONTH
Google Trends saw global interest in “#bitcoin going to zero” hit a peak score of 100 on February 13.
The spike comes with Bitcoin trading roughly 50% below its all-time high, amid rising economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Google Trends saw global interest in “#bitcoin going to zero” hit a peak score of 100 on February 13.
The spike comes with Bitcoin trading roughly 50% below its all-time high, amid rising economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
لارا الزهراني:
مكافأة مني لك تجدها مثبت في اول منشور ❤️
Last year, someone used the head & shoulders pattern on the $BTC chart and basically called what’s happening now.
On their chart, we’re currently at the fakeout before the big move… so far it’s played out. Let’s see if the pump shows up too.
#bitcoin #StrategyBTCPurchase
On their chart, we’re currently at the fakeout before the big move… so far it’s played out. Let’s see if the pump shows up too.
#bitcoin #StrategyBTCPurchase
I know this correction has been bad.
But I’m not here to complain.
I’m here to catch bottoms.
Because that’s where real money is made — not chasing green candles, but buying fear.
So how do I spot a real bottom?
I don’t guess. I use data.
One of my favorite tools: MVRV Z-Score.
It shows when #bitcoin is trading far below fair value.
The signal is simple:
Green zone = Undervalued
Panic everywhere, weak hands flushed.
It worked every cycle:
2015 → Green → Bottom
2018 → Green → Bottom
2022 → Green → Bottom
And now… we’re getting close.
When the crypto bottom is in, I’ll call it — no hesitation.
It’s simple. You can track it too.
Like if you’re with me $BTC
But I’m not here to complain.
I’m here to catch bottoms.
Because that’s where real money is made — not chasing green candles, but buying fear.
So how do I spot a real bottom?
I don’t guess. I use data.
One of my favorite tools: MVRV Z-Score.
It shows when #bitcoin is trading far below fair value.
The signal is simple:
Green zone = Undervalued
Panic everywhere, weak hands flushed.
It worked every cycle:
2015 → Green → Bottom
2018 → Green → Bottom
2022 → Green → Bottom
And now… we’re getting close.
When the crypto bottom is in, I’ll call it — no hesitation.
It’s simple. You can track it too.
Like if you’re with me $BTC
BTC/USDT Descending Channel – Breakout Imminent? 🔥
BTC/USDT is currently trading inside a well-defined descending channel, showing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This indicates short-term bearish pressure, but it also sets the stage for a potential high-momentum breakout.
📌 Current Structure
BTC is compressing inside the descending channelEach bounce within the channel is getting tighterCompression increases probability of breakout (either upside or downside
This is classic market behavior: the tighter the range, the bigger the potential move once price exits the channel.
🟢 Upside Scenario: Breakout Above 67,700
If BTC breaks above 67,700 with strong momentum and high volume, the next logical target could be around 71,000.
Key signs to watch for a valid breakout:
Candle closes above the channelVolume spikes above averageRetest of broken resistance (optional confirmation)
A clean breakout would signal bullish continuation, giving traders an opportunity for swing trades or momentum entries.
🔴 Downside Scenario: Rejection Within Channel
If BTC rejects from the upper boundary and remains within the descending channel:
Price may compress furtherMarket could continue sideways before another breakout attemptWatch for a potential lower low formation
Patience is key — do not chase trades until breakout is confirmed with strong volume.
🔍 What to Watch
Volume spikes at channel boundariesCandle structure at resistance/supportRetest of breakout levels for confirmationOverall market sentiment
Tip: Compression in a channel is a setup for high-probability breakout, but risk management is essential.
⚠ Risk Reminder
Descending channels can break in either directionUse proper stop lossesAvoid trading on assumptions; wait for confirmation
$BTC
#StrategyBTCPurchase
#BTC100kNext?
#bitcoin
📌 Current Structure
BTC is compressing inside the descending channelEach bounce within the channel is getting tighterCompression increases probability of breakout (either upside or downside
This is classic market behavior: the tighter the range, the bigger the potential move once price exits the channel.
🟢 Upside Scenario: Breakout Above 67,700
If BTC breaks above 67,700 with strong momentum and high volume, the next logical target could be around 71,000.
Key signs to watch for a valid breakout:
Candle closes above the channelVolume spikes above averageRetest of broken resistance (optional confirmation)
A clean breakout would signal bullish continuation, giving traders an opportunity for swing trades or momentum entries.
🔴 Downside Scenario: Rejection Within Channel
If BTC rejects from the upper boundary and remains within the descending channel:
Price may compress furtherMarket could continue sideways before another breakout attemptWatch for a potential lower low formation
Patience is key — do not chase trades until breakout is confirmed with strong volume.
🔍 What to Watch
Volume spikes at channel boundariesCandle structure at resistance/supportRetest of breakout levels for confirmationOverall market sentiment
Tip: Compression in a channel is a setup for high-probability breakout, but risk management is essential.
⚠ Risk Reminder
Descending channels can break in either directionUse proper stop lossesAvoid trading on assumptions; wait for confirmation
$BTC
#StrategyBTCPurchase
#BTC100kNext?
#bitcoin
The Real Reason Crypto (and Stocks) Are Dropping Right Now
Bitcoin down 46%.
Mag 7 stocks down 12-15%.
Everyone panicking.
The explanations you're hearing:
"It's quantum computing fears!""The Fed is too hawkish!""China is banning crypto again!"
Wrong.
The real reason: The US government is hoarding cash.
Let me explain this simply.
What's Actually Happening (The Simple Version)
The US Treasury has a checking account.
It's called the Treasury General Account (TGA).
Currently in that account: $922-925 billion
One month ago: Around $775 billion
Money pulled OUT of the economy: ~$150 billion
Where that money came from: You. Me. Everyone.
What happens when the government sucks $150 billion out of the system:
Less money floating around = Assets drop (crypto, stocks, everything).
The TGA Explained Like You're Five
Imagine the economy is a pool.
The water in the pool = Money supply
When there's lots of water:
Easy to swim (markets go up)Things float nicely (asset prices rise)Everyone's happy
When the government drains water into their bucket (TGA):
Pool level dropsHarder to swim (markets struggle)Things sink (prices drop)
Right now: The government's bucket is VERY full.
The Numbers (Simple Breakdown)
TGA Balance:
January 2026: ~$775 billionFebruary 2026: ~$922 billionIncrease: +$150 billion
Where that $150B came from:
Tax paymentsGovernment debt salesRevenue collection
Where it's NOT:
Not in your walletNot in crypto marketsNot buying stocksNot flowing through the economy
Translation: $150 billion just... disappeared from circulation.
Why This Matters for Crypto and Stocks
Simple logic:
More money available → Prices go up
Less money available → Prices go down
When the TGA fills up:
Money leaves the banking systemBanks have less to lendInvestors have less to deployRisk assets (crypto, tech stocks) get hit first
The Magnificent 7 stocks: Down 12-15% YTD
AppleMicrosoftNvidiaAmazonMetaAlphabetTesla
#bitcoin : Down 46% from ATH
Correlation? Not coincidence.
Why the TGA Is Filling Up Now
Tax season.
Here's how it works:
January-April:
Individuals pay quarterly taxesCorporations pay taxesGovernment collects revenueTGA goes UP (money leaves economy)
May-December:
Government spends (infrastructure, salaries, programs)Tax refunds go outTGA goes DOWN (money enters economy)
We're in the collection phase.
That's why the TGA is at $922 billion and climbing.
The Good News: This Has a Ceiling
The TGA can't go up forever.
Historical context:
Peak TGA levels:
COVID pandemic: $1.6 trillion (emergency)Debt ceiling crisis 2023: $50 billion (depleted)Normal target: $500-600 billionCurrent: $922 billion
Treasury projection: TGA peaks around $1.025 trillion by late April 2026
Then what?
It starts going DOWN.
Why?
Tax refund season.
The Tax Refund Catalyst (Coming Soon)
Around March-April: The government sends out tax refunds.
Estimated amount: ~$150 billion
What happens:
Money leaves TGA (goes down)Money enters economy (goes up)Liquidity improvesRisk assets bounce
This is seasonal.
Every year:
Jan-Apr: TGA fills up (markets struggle)Apr-May: TGA drains down (markets recover)
2026 is following the same pattern.
Why You Haven't Heard About This
Because it's boring.
"Treasury General Account liquidity dynamics" doesn't get clicks.
"QUANTUM COMPUTERS WILL BREAK BITCOIN!" gets millions of views.
But the TGA is the REAL driver.
How do we know?
Look at correlation:
TGA goes UP → Markets go DOWNTGA goes DOWN → Markets go UP
2021 example:
TGA dropped from $1.6T to $500BCrypto went parabolic ( $BTC to $69K)Coincidence? No. Liquidity.
2026 current:
TGA rising from $775B to $922BCrypto crashing (BTC from $126K to $68K)Same pattern, reverse direction.
What This Means for You
Short-term (next 1-2 months):
The TGA will keep rising until late April.
Expect:
Continued pressure on risk assetsChoppy marketsLiquidity stays tight
Don't expect:
Massive rally (liquidity is still draining)"Bottom is in" (not until TGA peaks)
Medium-term (April-May):
TGA peaks around $1.025 trillion, then starts dropping.
Tax refunds flow out (~$150B).
Expect:
Relief rally in crypto and stocksLiquidity improvesMarkets feel better
Long-term (rest of 2026):
TGA normalizes back to $500-600B target.
That's $400-500 billion flowing BACK into the economy.
Expect:
Sustained recoveryRisk-on sentiment returnsMarkets stabilize
What Smart Money Is Doing
They're watching the TGA.
Not headlines. Not FUD. The actual data.
Current strategy:
Understand we're in drainage phase (Jan-Apr)Don't fight the liquidity tide (wait for TGA peak)Position for refund season (Apr-May bounce)
Not:
Panic selling because "quantum FUD"FOMO buying every bounceIgnoring macro liquidity
The Bottom Line (Super Simple)
Why are crypto and stocks dropping?
The government is hoarding cash in the TGA.
How much?
~$150 billion pulled out in the last month.
Will it keep going?
Yes, until late April (TGA peaks around $1.025T).
Then what?
Tax refunds flow out (~$150B), money returns to economy, markets bounce.
What should you do?
Don't panic - This is seasonalDon't expect quick recovery - TGA still risingWatch for April-May - That's when liquidity improves
It's not quantum computing.
It's not the Fed being mean.
It's liquidity mechanics.
And it's temporary.
Have you been tracking the TGA, or is this the first time hearing about it? Does this change how you're thinking about the current drop? Let me know below.
Mag 7 stocks down 12-15%.
Everyone panicking.
The explanations you're hearing:
"It's quantum computing fears!""The Fed is too hawkish!""China is banning crypto again!"
Wrong.
The real reason: The US government is hoarding cash.
Let me explain this simply.
What's Actually Happening (The Simple Version)
The US Treasury has a checking account.
It's called the Treasury General Account (TGA).
Currently in that account: $922-925 billion
One month ago: Around $775 billion
Money pulled OUT of the economy: ~$150 billion
Where that money came from: You. Me. Everyone.
What happens when the government sucks $150 billion out of the system:
Less money floating around = Assets drop (crypto, stocks, everything).
The TGA Explained Like You're Five
Imagine the economy is a pool.
The water in the pool = Money supply
When there's lots of water:
Easy to swim (markets go up)Things float nicely (asset prices rise)Everyone's happy
When the government drains water into their bucket (TGA):
Pool level dropsHarder to swim (markets struggle)Things sink (prices drop)
Right now: The government's bucket is VERY full.
The Numbers (Simple Breakdown)
TGA Balance:
January 2026: ~$775 billionFebruary 2026: ~$922 billionIncrease: +$150 billion
Where that $150B came from:
Tax paymentsGovernment debt salesRevenue collection
Where it's NOT:
Not in your walletNot in crypto marketsNot buying stocksNot flowing through the economy
Translation: $150 billion just... disappeared from circulation.
Why This Matters for Crypto and Stocks
Simple logic:
More money available → Prices go up
Less money available → Prices go down
When the TGA fills up:
Money leaves the banking systemBanks have less to lendInvestors have less to deployRisk assets (crypto, tech stocks) get hit first
The Magnificent 7 stocks: Down 12-15% YTD
AppleMicrosoftNvidiaAmazonMetaAlphabetTesla
#bitcoin : Down 46% from ATH
Correlation? Not coincidence.
Why the TGA Is Filling Up Now
Tax season.
Here's how it works:
January-April:
Individuals pay quarterly taxesCorporations pay taxesGovernment collects revenueTGA goes UP (money leaves economy)
May-December:
Government spends (infrastructure, salaries, programs)Tax refunds go outTGA goes DOWN (money enters economy)
We're in the collection phase.
That's why the TGA is at $922 billion and climbing.
The Good News: This Has a Ceiling
The TGA can't go up forever.
Historical context:
Peak TGA levels:
COVID pandemic: $1.6 trillion (emergency)Debt ceiling crisis 2023: $50 billion (depleted)Normal target: $500-600 billionCurrent: $922 billion
Treasury projection: TGA peaks around $1.025 trillion by late April 2026
Then what?
It starts going DOWN.
Why?
Tax refund season.
The Tax Refund Catalyst (Coming Soon)
Around March-April: The government sends out tax refunds.
Estimated amount: ~$150 billion
What happens:
Money leaves TGA (goes down)Money enters economy (goes up)Liquidity improvesRisk assets bounce
This is seasonal.
Every year:
Jan-Apr: TGA fills up (markets struggle)Apr-May: TGA drains down (markets recover)
2026 is following the same pattern.
Why You Haven't Heard About This
Because it's boring.
"Treasury General Account liquidity dynamics" doesn't get clicks.
"QUANTUM COMPUTERS WILL BREAK BITCOIN!" gets millions of views.
But the TGA is the REAL driver.
How do we know?
Look at correlation:
TGA goes UP → Markets go DOWNTGA goes DOWN → Markets go UP
2021 example:
TGA dropped from $1.6T to $500BCrypto went parabolic ( $BTC to $69K)Coincidence? No. Liquidity.
2026 current:
TGA rising from $775B to $922BCrypto crashing (BTC from $126K to $68K)Same pattern, reverse direction.
What This Means for You
Short-term (next 1-2 months):
The TGA will keep rising until late April.
Expect:
Continued pressure on risk assetsChoppy marketsLiquidity stays tight
Don't expect:
Massive rally (liquidity is still draining)"Bottom is in" (not until TGA peaks)
Medium-term (April-May):
TGA peaks around $1.025 trillion, then starts dropping.
Tax refunds flow out (~$150B).
Expect:
Relief rally in crypto and stocksLiquidity improvesMarkets feel better
Long-term (rest of 2026):
TGA normalizes back to $500-600B target.
That's $400-500 billion flowing BACK into the economy.
Expect:
Sustained recoveryRisk-on sentiment returnsMarkets stabilize
What Smart Money Is Doing
They're watching the TGA.
Not headlines. Not FUD. The actual data.
Current strategy:
Understand we're in drainage phase (Jan-Apr)Don't fight the liquidity tide (wait for TGA peak)Position for refund season (Apr-May bounce)
Not:
Panic selling because "quantum FUD"FOMO buying every bounceIgnoring macro liquidity
The Bottom Line (Super Simple)
Why are crypto and stocks dropping?
The government is hoarding cash in the TGA.
How much?
~$150 billion pulled out in the last month.
Will it keep going?
Yes, until late April (TGA peaks around $1.025T).
Then what?
Tax refunds flow out (~$150B), money returns to economy, markets bounce.
What should you do?
Don't panic - This is seasonalDon't expect quick recovery - TGA still risingWatch for April-May - That's when liquidity improves
It's not quantum computing.
It's not the Fed being mean.
It's liquidity mechanics.
And it's temporary.
Have you been tracking the TGA, or is this the first time hearing about it? Does this change how you're thinking about the current drop? Let me know below.
Binance BiBi:
Hey! You've absolutely nailed this explanation of the TGA. It's a crucial, often overlooked, factor for market liquidity. My search confirms the trend you described—a rising TGA can pull liquidity from the markets, affecting assets. Great job breaking it down
🚨 FLASH REPORT: Bitcoin Plunges Below $66,000 – The "Long" Squeeze is Real! 📉
The crypto market just took a sharp turn into "Extreme Fear" as $BTC officially breached the critical $66,000 psychological support level. This move has sent shockwaves through the derivatives market, triggering a massive wave of liquidations.
The Hourly Damage:
$30,130,000+ in long positions have been wiped out in the last 60 minutes alone.Total 24-hour liquidations for Bitcoin have already surged toward $47 million.The Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to a staggering 11/100, signaling a "panic-like" sentiment across the board.
Why is this happening?
The drop appears to be a classic leveraged washout. As prices slipped, automated margin calls triggered a "liquidation cascade," forcing more selling and driving the price even lower. This is compounded by macro uncertainty following hawkish FOMC minutes and institutional outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $133.3 million in exits today.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: If BTC fails to reclaim the $66,000 zone, the next major "floor" sits at $60,000. A daily close below $65,000 could expose a deeper pullback toward the $55,000 range.Resistance: To invalidate this bearish momentum, bulls need a decisive break back above $67,000–$68,000.
Strategy Note:
With the 14-day RSI dipping into oversold territory, some analysts suggest a "long, slow grind" or consolidation phase may follow this volatility. While the long-term outlook remains tied to institutional adoption, the immediate path is clouded by macro-driven risk aversion.
Are we witnessing a healthy leverage reset, or is there more downside to come? Stay sharp, use stop-losses, and never trade more than you can afford to lose.
#CryptoNews #BinanceSquare #Liquidation #TradingAlert #bitcoin
The Hourly Damage:
$30,130,000+ in long positions have been wiped out in the last 60 minutes alone.Total 24-hour liquidations for Bitcoin have already surged toward $47 million.The Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to a staggering 11/100, signaling a "panic-like" sentiment across the board.
Why is this happening?
The drop appears to be a classic leveraged washout. As prices slipped, automated margin calls triggered a "liquidation cascade," forcing more selling and driving the price even lower. This is compounded by macro uncertainty following hawkish FOMC minutes and institutional outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $133.3 million in exits today.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: If BTC fails to reclaim the $66,000 zone, the next major "floor" sits at $60,000. A daily close below $65,000 could expose a deeper pullback toward the $55,000 range.Resistance: To invalidate this bearish momentum, bulls need a decisive break back above $67,000–$68,000.
Strategy Note:
With the 14-day RSI dipping into oversold territory, some analysts suggest a "long, slow grind" or consolidation phase may follow this volatility. While the long-term outlook remains tied to institutional adoption, the immediate path is clouded by macro-driven risk aversion.
Are we witnessing a healthy leverage reset, or is there more downside to come? Stay sharp, use stop-losses, and never trade more than you can afford to lose.
#CryptoNews #BinanceSquare #Liquidation #TradingAlert #bitcoin
RogCryptoEU:
is this a week old?
Bitcoin on the Edge: Extreme Fear vs. Silent Accumulation - Where is the Price Headed?
Date: February 19, 2026
By: Andrew
The crypto ecosystem is at a historic crossroads. While retail sentiment is plunging into Extreme Fear (8-13 points), on-chain metrics reveal a very different story: a massive transfer of wealth from "weak hands" to institutions and whales.
1. The Glass Wall: Whale Analysis and Their Walls
Whales aren't panic selling; they're "setting traps." According to order book analysis and liquidation maps:
The Institutional Support Wall ($60,000 - $62,500): This is where the densest "wall" is located. Whales have placed massive buy orders in this block to prevent the price from falling into the $50k void. This is the area where MicroStrategy and other sovereign wealth funds have historically defended the price.
The Psychological Resistance Wall ($71,000 - $73,300): Whales who bought near the 2025 highs are either "defending" their short positions or looking to exit without losses. Until Bitcoin breaks $74,000 with significant volume, the market will remain under bearish control.
Accumulation: Just last week, whale wallets absorbed over 53,000 BTC, while small investors sold due to recession fears.
2. The Human Factor: Extreme Fear as a Buy Signal
Historically, when the Fear & Greed Index touches single-digit levels (like the current 8/100), the market is near a local bottom. 85% of social media sentiment is negative, which is often a contrarian indicator: when everyone expects a drop to zero, a rebound is usually imminent.
Final Conclusion: Bitcoin is in a painful reaccumulation phase. The technical structure is bearish in the short term (below the 7- and 25-day EMAs), but fundamentally sound due to the limited supply on exchanges and the inflow of patient capital (ETFs and corporate reserves). The price is caught between retail fear and whale hunger.
Probability Analysis in Futures: If you decide to trade Binance Futures today, these are the statistical probabilities based on current volatility and liquidity positioning:
Potential for gains and losses:
Buy (long) / probability of success (short term): 45% / liquidation risk: High.
Sale (Short) / Probability of success (short term): 55% / Liquidation risk: Medium.
Ideal Recommendation for Traders
For the Conservative Trader: Do not trade in the middle of the range ($67k). Wait for the price to hit the whale wall at $62,500 to look for a long entry with a tight Stop Loss at $59,800.
For the Scalping Trader: Take advantage of rejections at the 25 EMA (approximately $69,500) for quick short entries, targeting $1,000 to $1,500 USD per trade.
Risk Management: Given the "Extreme Fear" level, avoid leverage above 5x or 10x. Volatility can wipe out both sides of the order book in a matter of minutes.
Note: If Bitcoin $BTC closes a daily candle above $71,800, the buy (long) probability will increase to 75%.
Happy hunting, good luck to all
#BTC #bitcoin #analisis #trader #binancefuturos
By: Andrew
The crypto ecosystem is at a historic crossroads. While retail sentiment is plunging into Extreme Fear (8-13 points), on-chain metrics reveal a very different story: a massive transfer of wealth from "weak hands" to institutions and whales.
1. The Glass Wall: Whale Analysis and Their Walls
Whales aren't panic selling; they're "setting traps." According to order book analysis and liquidation maps:
The Institutional Support Wall ($60,000 - $62,500): This is where the densest "wall" is located. Whales have placed massive buy orders in this block to prevent the price from falling into the $50k void. This is the area where MicroStrategy and other sovereign wealth funds have historically defended the price.
The Psychological Resistance Wall ($71,000 - $73,300): Whales who bought near the 2025 highs are either "defending" their short positions or looking to exit without losses. Until Bitcoin breaks $74,000 with significant volume, the market will remain under bearish control.
Accumulation: Just last week, whale wallets absorbed over 53,000 BTC, while small investors sold due to recession fears.
2. The Human Factor: Extreme Fear as a Buy Signal
Historically, when the Fear & Greed Index touches single-digit levels (like the current 8/100), the market is near a local bottom. 85% of social media sentiment is negative, which is often a contrarian indicator: when everyone expects a drop to zero, a rebound is usually imminent.
Final Conclusion: Bitcoin is in a painful reaccumulation phase. The technical structure is bearish in the short term (below the 7- and 25-day EMAs), but fundamentally sound due to the limited supply on exchanges and the inflow of patient capital (ETFs and corporate reserves). The price is caught between retail fear and whale hunger.
Probability Analysis in Futures: If you decide to trade Binance Futures today, these are the statistical probabilities based on current volatility and liquidity positioning:
Potential for gains and losses:
Buy (long) / probability of success (short term): 45% / liquidation risk: High.
Sale (Short) / Probability of success (short term): 55% / Liquidation risk: Medium.
Ideal Recommendation for Traders
For the Conservative Trader: Do not trade in the middle of the range ($67k). Wait for the price to hit the whale wall at $62,500 to look for a long entry with a tight Stop Loss at $59,800.
For the Scalping Trader: Take advantage of rejections at the 25 EMA (approximately $69,500) for quick short entries, targeting $1,000 to $1,500 USD per trade.
Risk Management: Given the "Extreme Fear" level, avoid leverage above 5x or 10x. Volatility can wipe out both sides of the order book in a matter of minutes.
Note: If Bitcoin $BTC closes a daily candle above $71,800, the buy (long) probability will increase to 75%.
Happy hunting, good luck to all
#BTC #bitcoin #analisis #trader #binancefuturos
🔮 The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026! 📈🚀
As we reach the strong second half of February 2026, the crypto market is shaking off the volatility it saw at the beginning of the year.
#bitcoin is currently trading between $67,000 and $70,000 after a sharp drop from its 2025 highs, but institutional momentum is building.
Bitwise's daring "The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026" (released in late 2025) has become relevant in 2026 as it gives a positive outlook during the dip.
Much of the forecast is focused on long-term changes instead of short-term noise.
Here is a breakdown with the most important points:
Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle and reaches new all-time highs.
As #ExchangeTradedFund (ETFs) take over, halving dynamics fade. Many pundits believe you must watch out for new highs above $126K.
Over the years, Bitcoin has been seen as less volatile than Nvidia 📉. As BTC matures as "digital gold," it doesn't swing as much as tech stocks do.
ETFs take in more than 100% of new supply for BTC, ETH, and SOL.
Institutional demand, such as through spot ETFs at companies like Morgan Stanley, is higher than mining issuance.
#cryptocurrency stocks do better than tech stocks.
Companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, and new players are moving ahead quickly.
Polymarket's open interest has reached new highs 🎲, surpassing the volumes of the 2024 election as prediction markets grow.
Onchain vaults ("ETFs 2.0") double in AUM 🏦, combining yield and custody.
7–10 include new all-time highs for Ethereum and Solana (if the CLARITY Act passes), "ETF-palooza" with more than 100 launches, more institutional access, and crypto's strength in the face of quantum fears or macro headwinds.
These predictions go against the current cautious view that the rally will end after 2025, but they are hopeful about adoption, regulation, and capital inflows.
Bitwise sees 2026 as a year of growth, with less drama and more usefulness. However, there are still risks (volatility and outflows). Keep your investments varied and hold on for dear life.
As we reach the strong second half of February 2026, the crypto market is shaking off the volatility it saw at the beginning of the year.
#bitcoin is currently trading between $67,000 and $70,000 after a sharp drop from its 2025 highs, but institutional momentum is building.
Bitwise's daring "The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026" (released in late 2025) has become relevant in 2026 as it gives a positive outlook during the dip.
Much of the forecast is focused on long-term changes instead of short-term noise.
Here is a breakdown with the most important points:
Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle and reaches new all-time highs.
As #ExchangeTradedFund (ETFs) take over, halving dynamics fade. Many pundits believe you must watch out for new highs above $126K.
Over the years, Bitcoin has been seen as less volatile than Nvidia 📉. As BTC matures as "digital gold," it doesn't swing as much as tech stocks do.
ETFs take in more than 100% of new supply for BTC, ETH, and SOL.
Institutional demand, such as through spot ETFs at companies like Morgan Stanley, is higher than mining issuance.
#cryptocurrency stocks do better than tech stocks.
Companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, and new players are moving ahead quickly.
Polymarket's open interest has reached new highs 🎲, surpassing the volumes of the 2024 election as prediction markets grow.
Onchain vaults ("ETFs 2.0") double in AUM 🏦, combining yield and custody.
7–10 include new all-time highs for Ethereum and Solana (if the CLARITY Act passes), "ETF-palooza" with more than 100 launches, more institutional access, and crypto's strength in the face of quantum fears or macro headwinds.
These predictions go against the current cautious view that the rally will end after 2025, but they are hopeful about adoption, regulation, and capital inflows.
Bitwise sees 2026 as a year of growth, with less drama and more usefulness. However, there are still risks (volatility and outflows). Keep your investments varied and hold on for dear life.
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