Bitcoin down 46%.

Mag 7 stocks down 12-15%.

Everyone panicking.

The explanations you're hearing:

  • "It's quantum computing fears!"

  • "The Fed is too hawkish!"

  • "China is banning crypto again!"

Wrong.

The real reason: The US government is hoarding cash.

Let me explain this simply.

What's Actually Happening (The Simple Version)

The US Treasury has a checking account.

It's called the Treasury General Account (TGA).

Currently in that account: $922-925 billion

One month ago: Around $775 billion

Money pulled OUT of the economy: ~$150 billion

Where that money came from: You. Me. Everyone.

What happens when the government sucks $150 billion out of the system:

Less money floating around = Assets drop (crypto, stocks, everything).

The TGA Explained Like You're Five

Imagine the economy is a pool.

The water in the pool = Money supply

When there's lots of water:

  • Easy to swim (markets go up)

  • Things float nicely (asset prices rise)

  • Everyone's happy

When the government drains water into their bucket (TGA):

  • Pool level drops

  • Harder to swim (markets struggle)

  • Things sink (prices drop)

Right now: The government's bucket is VERY full.

The Numbers (Simple Breakdown)

TGA Balance:

  • January 2026: ~$775 billion

  • February 2026: ~$922 billion

  • Increase: +$150 billion

Where that $150B came from:

  • Tax payments

  • Government debt sales

  • Revenue collection

Where it's NOT:

  • Not in your wallet

  • Not in crypto markets

  • Not buying stocks

  • Not flowing through the economy

Translation: $150 billion just... disappeared from circulation.

Why This Matters for Crypto and Stocks

Simple logic:

More money available → Prices go up

Less money available → Prices go down

When the TGA fills up:

  • Money leaves the banking system

  • Banks have less to lend

  • Investors have less to deploy

  • Risk assets (crypto, tech stocks) get hit first

The Magnificent 7 stocks: Down 12-15% YTD

  • Apple

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Amazon

  • Meta

  • Alphabet

  • Tesla

#bitcoin : Down 46% from ATH

Correlation? Not coincidence.

Why the TGA Is Filling Up Now

Tax season.

Here's how it works:

January-April:

  • Individuals pay quarterly taxes

  • Corporations pay taxes

  • Government collects revenue

  • TGA goes UP (money leaves economy)

May-December:

  • Government spends (infrastructure, salaries, programs)

  • Tax refunds go out

  • TGA goes DOWN (money enters economy)

We're in the collection phase.

That's why the TGA is at $922 billion and climbing.


The Good News: This Has a Ceiling

The TGA can't go up forever.

Historical context:

Peak TGA levels:

  • COVID pandemic: $1.6 trillion (emergency)

  • Debt ceiling crisis 2023: $50 billion (depleted)

  • Normal target: $500-600 billion

  • Current: $922 billion

Treasury projection: TGA peaks around $1.025 trillion by late April 2026


Then what?

It starts going DOWN.

Why?

Tax refund season.

The Tax Refund Catalyst (Coming Soon)

Around March-April: The government sends out tax refunds.

Estimated amount: ~$150 billion

What happens:

  • Money leaves TGA (goes down)

  • Money enters economy (goes up)

  • Liquidity improves

  • Risk assets bounce

This is seasonal.

Every year:

  • Jan-Apr: TGA fills up (markets struggle)

  • Apr-May: TGA drains down (markets recover)

2026 is following the same pattern.

Why You Haven't Heard About This

Because it's boring.

"Treasury General Account liquidity dynamics" doesn't get clicks.

"QUANTUM COMPUTERS WILL BREAK BITCOIN!" gets millions of views.

But the TGA is the REAL driver.

How do we know?

Look at correlation:

  • TGA goes UP → Markets go DOWN

  • TGA goes DOWN → Markets go UP

2021 example:

  • TGA dropped from $1.6T to $500B

  • Crypto went parabolic ( $BTC to $69K)

  • Coincidence? No. Liquidity.

2026 current:

  • TGA rising from $775B to $922B

  • Crypto crashing (BTC from $126K to $68K)

  • Same pattern, reverse direction.

What This Means for You

Short-term (next 1-2 months):

The TGA will keep rising until late April.

Expect:

  • Continued pressure on risk assets

  • Choppy markets

  • Liquidity stays tight

Don't expect:

  • Massive rally (liquidity is still draining)

  • "Bottom is in" (not until TGA peaks)

Medium-term (April-May):

TGA peaks around $1.025 trillion, then starts dropping.

Tax refunds flow out (~$150B).

Expect:

  • Relief rally in crypto and stocks

  • Liquidity improves

  • Markets feel better

Long-term (rest of 2026):

TGA normalizes back to $500-600B target.

That's $400-500 billion flowing BACK into the economy.

Expect:

  • Sustained recovery

  • Risk-on sentiment returns

  • Markets stabilize

What Smart Money Is Doing

They're watching the TGA.

Not headlines. Not FUD. The actual data.

Current strategy:

  1. Understand we're in drainage phase (Jan-Apr)

  2. Don't fight the liquidity tide (wait for TGA peak)

  3. Position for refund season (Apr-May bounce)

Not:

  • Panic selling because "quantum FUD"

  • FOMO buying every bounce

  • Ignoring macro liquidity

The Bottom Line (Super Simple)

Why are crypto and stocks dropping?

The government is hoarding cash in the TGA.

How much?

~$150 billion pulled out in the last month.

Will it keep going?

Yes, until late April (TGA peaks around $1.025T).

Then what?

Tax refunds flow out (~$150B), money returns to economy, markets bounce.

What should you do?

  • Don't panic - This is seasonal

  • Don't expect quick recovery - TGA still rising

  • Watch for April-May - That's when liquidity improves

It's not quantum computing.

It's not the Fed being mean.

It's liquidity mechanics.

And it's temporary.

Have you been tracking the TGA, or is this the first time hearing about it? Does this change how you're thinking about the current drop? Let me know below.