📊 MARKET SENTIMENT & WINRATE ANALYSIS (FGI) – Updated to 2025-08-23


Community scalping winrate data shows a very weak correlation between FGI and winrate (≈ -0.07). Winrate does not move linearly with FGI; the “Extreme Greed” phase remains the riskiest zone for performance.


🔍 Quick Insights

In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance is roughly around average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no significant improvement. Extreme Greed (≄80) sharply drags down winrate. Note: Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample size, so interpret cautiously.


📉 Average Winrate by FGI Range (with sample size)

😹 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5

😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.87% — n=91

😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.21% — n=101

😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.97% — n=195

đŸ€‘ Extreme Greed (≄80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)


Percentage of days above the average winrate (44.75%):

Extreme Fear 60.00% ‱ Fear 51.65% ‱ Neutral 49.50% ‱ Greed 47.69% ‱ Extreme Greed 12.00%.

This confirms that “Extreme Greed” is where strict discipline is most needed, while Fear and Neutral conditions provide relatively stable performance around the average.


📈 Implications for Scalping

1 - FGI ≄80: Lower TP expectations, tighten SL, and prioritize early exits when momentum weakens.

2 - FGI 20–<80: Maintain strict R:R discipline; avoid extending TP excessively due to FOMO, as differences between Fear, Neutral, and Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a full strategy shift.

3 - FGI <20: Small sample size; handle cautiously with a strong focus on risk management.


#ScalpingInsights #MarketSentiment