đšGLOBAL M2 LIED â But Japan M2 Is Telling the Truth Now
Last year, global M2 tracked Bitcoin perfectly⊠until July 2025. Global liquidity kept rising, but crypto dumped. The missing piece? Japan M2 turned down sharply around the same time (post-April 2025 tariff shock).
Why Japan M2 matters more than global M2 for crypto:
Yen = #1 carry-trade funding currency (ultra-low rates â cheap global leverage)
Japan = worldâs largest external creditor â its liquidity drives risk-asset flows
Japanese system is bank-lending heavy â directly fuels deployable leverage for stocks/crypto
When Japan M2 falls â carry-trade fuel dries up â risk assets bleed.
When it turns up â leverage floods back in.
Current signal (Feb 2026):
Japan M2 has been rising again for ~10 weeks â classic 8â12 week lag before risk assets accelerate.
Bottom line:
Global M2 misled us. Japan M2 didnât.
The carry-trade engine is refueling. Historically, thatâs when BTC cycles turn strong.
Follow the leverage, not the headlines.
Next few months could get very interesting.
